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[Politics] Donald Trump 2024



Badger Boy

Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,656
JBizzle said:
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
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I think that's totally wrong - true undecideds will vote Biden because Trump is a maniac. I don't believe undecideds will break for Trump like they did in 2016, in 2016 he was a comedy character and potentially a net positive for the country. And he was against Hillary Clinton, who was historically unpopular. The circumstances of that election allowed Trump to sneak a tiny Electoral College victory. Now, 8 years on, America has seen what a Trump term was like and it was catastrophic. He's not a potential net positive any more, he's a guaranteed net negative so there won't be any benefit of the doubt. The Biden administration has been very successful and providing the messaging is right, true undecideds will vote Biden and the abortion debate will probably help that case.

Undecideds who just aren't confident enough to admit they like Trump because he's a total bastard will vote for him if they choose to vote, but if they choose not to bother then all the better.
 






nwgull

nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,848
Manchester
JBizzle said:
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
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I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,880
nwgull said:
I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.
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You are right of course but there are enough undecideds to swing it.

3 million voters spread across key States are undecided - in an election that has such fine margins (as it was in 2020, the slightest swing either way could tip the balance in favour of Trump or Biden.

www.motherjones.com

Here are the only swing voters you need to care about in 2024

One percent of the US population spread across seven states could decide this election.
www.motherjones.com www.motherjones.com


Again, I think you are right, the key for the Democrats will be to voter turnout - the other issue will be the Dems holding on to seats in the Senate in States that voted for Trump last time round and holding on to others in marginal constituencies. Biden must improve his approval ratings to win the Senate in November.

While Biden and Trump each won 25 states in 2020, Biden won far more of them by very narrow margins. As a result, Senate Democrats are much more dependent than Republicans on states that lean their way only slightly in the presidential contest.

‘In 2020, Biden won three states by less than a single percentage point: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. He won three others by less than 3 percentage points: Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan. Democrats now hold 11 of the 12 Senate seats from those six highly competitive states. (Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is the only Republican senator from these states.)’

 


peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,385
Extraordinary testimony yesterday in the Biden impeachment hoax.

A couple of weeks back the FBI arrested the alleged star witness in the Biden/Burisma bribes, Hunter Biden nonsense ("Biden crime family" "Mr 10%"), which was the prelude to the current Biden impeachment hoax.

Yesterday Lev Parnas took the stand, he was Trump and Guillianis fixer to try and dish the dirt and create the false narrative who has now turned witness. What a disgraceful charade this is. And yet MAGA loons still won't wake up.

 




Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,870
West west west Sussex
I saw a post Oscars interview with Trump.

He was so pleased Kimmel read his abuse right before Best Picture Award.
I have no idea why JK gave him the oxygen, and keeps doing so.
 




Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,870
West west west Sussex
Badger Boy said:
"Isn't it past your jail time?"

Everyone in the room laughing at Trump. I think it was well worth it.
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'No such thing as bad publicity'.

Trump was full of it 'they needed me', 'they spoke about me before the biggest award'.

Sure he's only appealing to his base but nevertheless Kimmel is still feeding the troll, every single night.
I enjoy it, most of it is funny, but I can't help thinking the only winner is Donny and he's the last person you want winning at anything.
 






Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,226
Goldstone
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again.
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But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.
 






Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,564
Faversham
Triggaaar said:
But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.
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My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not. And their sense of freedom would derive from a sense that Trump was making them feel more free (if that's what he has claimed). He will also claim the wall has been built (a tiny bit has) or that its completion has been blocked by traitors (probably led by crooked Hillary). And his supporters will agree.

The reality is that most American voters are neither advantaged nor disadvantaged by any president ("Roosevelt New Deal", and Reagan's tax cutting and public spending cutting being exceptions). And it is all about what the supporters (his especially) think. Or feel, I should say.

There is a poster on here, largely sensible as far as I can see, whose feeling is that Trump is a better option than Biden. And so it goes.
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,226
Goldstone
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not.
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Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,564
Faversham
Triggaaar said:
Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.
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That's correct.

So, since you're arguing with me, I deduce you think that Trumps loyal supporters will feel poorer and less free because they realize he failed with the wall, and will therefore vote for Biden.

Only time will tell, of course, but that isn't my expectation.

I wonder what @lasvegan thinks?
 




Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,651
JBizzle said:
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?
Click to expand...
There are plenty of YouTube videos from eminent medical people who are saying whilst Biden's cognitive slowdown is due to old age, Trump's memory recall is far more alarming and symptomatic of dementia.

At times he can't seem to tell the difference between Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, Biden and Obama, or recall clearly what he did and didn't accomplish in his first term from what Obama or Biden have done.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,564
Faversham
Zeberdi said:
Exactly this. You understand!
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Update....

At the end of the day either Trump will win or he won't. I assume there must be swing voters in America or one or other party will always win. I would imagine they have mostly made up their minds now.

Here are some numbers from Wiki accessed today

1711124757949.png
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,226
Goldstone
Harry Wilson's tackle said:
So, since you're arguing with me, I deduce you think that Trumps loyal supporters will feel poorer and less free because they realize he failed with the wall, and will therefore vote for Biden.
Click to expand...

I think his supporters will vote for him again, despite the fact that he didn't do what he said he would the first time, because they're too stupid to think.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,564
Faversham
Triggaaar said:
I think his supporters will vote for him again, despite the fact that he didn't do what he said he would the first time, because they're too stupid to think.
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I suspect we largely agree, as usual :thumbsup:
 




schmunk

schmunk

"Members"
Jan 19, 2018
9,541
Mid mid mid Sussex
Zeberdi said:
Oh Trump always looks finds a way out of the fox hole - like floating Truth Social on the financial market for example
news.sky.com

Donald Trump's social media company set to go public - potentially netting him $3bn

The former US president is grappling with a number of legal cases against him - including the fallout from a $454m judgement in a civil fraud case in New York.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

I wouldn’t like to be a shareholder in any of Trump’s enterprises frankly - I would be surprised if Trump’s Truth Social even provided the cash he needs to pay his $454 bond to NY given his history of fraud and deception - it is likely his shares are highly overinflated and he will find it difficult to dump them to raise funds imo. Also -can you imagine Truth Social, the hotbed of fake narratives it is, to withstand the increased regulatory oversight and public scrutiny that comes with public companies? It does not bode well for a man that has prided himself in private investment port folios and regarding any government interference in his business affairs as witch-hunts 🤷🏻‍♂️.
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There is no way that any serious corporate investor (pension schemes, mutuals, etc.) is going to put a lump of money into this business, which made losses of $50M on turnover of $3M last year and has no reasonable plans to achieve breakeven, let alone profit. Because of this, the notional $6bn value is a nonsense and there's no chance that he'll get the $454M bond he urgently needs on the back of this.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,333
schmunk said:
There is no way that any serious corporate investor (pension schemes, mutuals, etc.) is going to put a lump of money into this business, which made losses of $50M on turnover of $3M last year and has no reasonable plans to achieve breakeven, let alone profit. Because of this, the notional $6bn value is a nonsense and there's no chance that he'll get the $454M bond he urgently needs on the back of this.
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the merger it's done, renames as Trump Media from Monday. no idea how funded but the valuation is there. though his stock would be locked for some time, he might be able to borrow against them. jammy git.
 


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