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[Politics] Donald Trump 2024



Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,238
Faversham
No one has a crystal ball but word is on the ground, at least in Michigan, the Dems are very concerned about Trump but resigned themselves long ago to get behind Biden rather than field another candidate - there was a belief Biden would be the only one to beat him - that’s come back to haunt them - the majority of Dems support Biden and will vote for him just to keep out Trump but feel he is too old to do the job. I wrote to family members back in December 2022 who work for the DNC and said I thought it would be a mistake if Biden should stand for a second term - it didn’t go down very well!

Americans largely did not want a repeat of the 2016 race between these two candidates- they wanted a change. But they are polling support for Trump on policies. Biden’s immigration policies and his restructuring plan has yet to have an effect (in part because the Republicans in the Senate has blocked funding each step of the way) and the levels of post-Covid global inflation hurt Americans badly and while inflation levels have gone down, Biden is paying the price. Trump‘s isolationist policies and rhetoric is winning over large swathes of the electorate who believe by blocking imports from China (even at the risk of triggering world-wide trade wars and uncontrolled import tariffs) and drilling for oil in the Arctic National Reserve (against existing environmental regulations) Trump will give them more money in their pocket.

Not only is Trump an isolationist (when he doesn’t need his fascist friends to help get him elected). but he is a popularist who espouses whatever he thinks the electorate want to hear at the podium. It is difficult to counter that with an agenda that seeks global cooperation, equitable immigration policies and sustainable policies with regard to environmental protection and climate change. Biden’s policy of unconditionally supporting Israel has angered some of his support especially in Michigan but he has modified his approach somewhat in recent days. People forget too easily that Trump’s support for Netanyahu went so far as to come up with a ‘peace plan’ that moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, handed over a third of the occupied territories in the West Bank to Israel and, ruled out a two State solution that would grant independence for the Palestinians - if the electorate think Trump’s policies on Israel will bring peace in the ME they are sorely mistaken and have very short memories.

In short, polls are indicating electors will vote for whoever promises to give them more money in their pocket - such is the shallow, gullible and selfish world we live in.

Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again. In a nation where less than half the population have a passport, and don't think much beyond their family circle, it can be rather hard to get traction over issues rooted in the 'greater good'. Especially when the evidence that the greater good is best served by whatever policy is on offer is not transparent.
 




Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,655
Thank you @Zeberdi for your detailed reply. I'm hoping @Badger Boy is correct but unfortunately I think @Stat Brother is going to be more accurate.
It's too depressing and not good for anyone's mental health. Well, certainly not mine.
It really isn't worth worrying about at this stage. The election is so far off, there is so much to happen between now and then and the vast majority of the US are not engaged in the election yet. It's hard to believe, but there are so many people who aren't paying attention all of the time. As soon it starts getting closer and the debates take place, people will start to listen and they'll start to make a choice.

Trump's vision of hate and revenge won't win over enough people. History will show that Joe Biden has been an historically good president, despite the unproductive congress and the chaos of the MAGA fruitcakes. Biden's administration, not the man, his administration have got a lot done during this term. Some of it people won't care about (the CHIPS act being one, although that is a major piece of legislation) but some of it people will do ($35 cap on Insulin costs, the Infrastructure Bill which Trump wanted but couldn't do - Biden's administration got it passed and have built bridges, relaid roads etc - all very tangible).

Biden will win the election and I am confident he'll win the Electoral College which is different, but the only thing which matters. Mental to think that Biden could win the vote by millions, but ultimately lose the presidency. I don't think he will.
 


Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,881
Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again. In a nation where less than half the population have a passport, and don't think much beyond their family circle, it can be rather hard to get traction over issues rooted in the 'greater good'. Especially when the evidence that the greater good is best served by whatever policy is on offer is not transparent.
Exactly this. You understand!
 


JBizzle

Well-known member
Apr 18, 2010
5,833
Seaford
It really isn't worth worrying about at this stage. The election is so far off, there is so much to happen between now and then and the vast majority of the US are not engaged in the election yet. It's hard to believe, but there are so many people who aren't paying attention all of the time. As soon it starts getting closer and the debates take place, people will start to listen and they'll start to make a choice.

Trump's vision of hate and revenge won't win over enough people. History will show that Joe Biden has been an historically good president, despite the unproductive congress and the chaos of the MAGA fruitcakes. Biden's administration, not the man, his administration have got a lot done during this term. Some of it people won't care about (the CHIPS act being one, although that is a major piece of legislation) but some of it people will do ($35 cap on Insulin costs, the Infrastructure Bill which Trump wanted but couldn't do - Biden's administration got it passed and have built bridges, relaid roads etc - all very tangible).

Biden will win the election and I am confident he'll win the Electoral College which is different, but the only thing which matters. Mental to think that Biden could win the vote by millions, but ultimately lose the presidency. I don't think he will.
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
 


Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,655
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
I think that's totally wrong - true undecideds will vote Biden because Trump is a maniac. I don't believe undecideds will break for Trump like they did in 2016, in 2016 he was a comedy character and potentially a net positive for the country. And he was against Hillary Clinton, who was historically unpopular. The circumstances of that election allowed Trump to sneak a tiny Electoral College victory. Now, 8 years on, America has seen what a Trump term was like and it was catastrophic. He's not a potential net positive any more, he's a guaranteed net negative so there won't be any benefit of the doubt. The Biden administration has been very successful and providing the messaging is right, true undecideds will vote Biden and the abortion debate will probably help that case.

Undecideds who just aren't confident enough to admit they like Trump because he's a total bastard will vote for him if they choose to vote, but if they choose not to bother then all the better.
 






nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,812
Manchester
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.
 


Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,881
I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.
You are right of course but there are enough undecideds to swing it.

3 million voters spread across key States are undecided - in an election that has such fine margins (as it was in 2020, the slightest swing either way could tip the balance in favour of Trump or Biden.



Again, I think you are right, the key for the Democrats will be to voter turnout - the other issue will be the Dems holding on to seats in the Senate in States that voted for Trump last time round and holding on to others in marginal constituencies. Biden must improve his approval ratings to win the Senate in November.

While Biden and Trump each won 25 states in 2020, Biden won far more of them by very narrow margins. As a result, Senate Democrats are much more dependent than Republicans on states that lean their way only slightly in the presidential contest.

‘In 2020, Biden won three states by less than a single percentage point: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. He won three others by less than 3 percentage points: Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan. Democrats now hold 11 of the 12 Senate seats from those six highly competitive states. (Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is the only Republican senator from these states.)’

 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,366
Extraordinary testimony yesterday in the Biden impeachment hoax.

A couple of weeks back the FBI arrested the alleged star witness in the Biden/Burisma bribes, Hunter Biden nonsense ("Biden crime family" "Mr 10%"), which was the prelude to the current Biden impeachment hoax.

Yesterday Lev Parnas took the stand, he was Trump and Guillianis fixer to try and dish the dirt and create the false narrative who has now turned witness. What a disgraceful charade this is. And yet MAGA loons still won't wake up.

 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,801
West west west Sussex
I saw a post Oscars interview with Trump.

He was so pleased Kimmel read his abuse right before Best Picture Award.
I have no idea why JK gave him the oxygen, and keeps doing so.
 






Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,801
West west west Sussex
"Isn't it past your jail time?"

Everyone in the room laughing at Trump. I think it was well worth it.
'No such thing as bad publicity'.

Trump was full of it 'they needed me', 'they spoke about me before the biggest award'.

Sure he's only appealing to his base but nevertheless Kimmel is still feeding the troll, every single night.
I enjoy it, most of it is funny, but I can't help thinking the only winner is Donny and he's the last person you want winning at anything.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,207
Goldstone
Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again.

But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.
 






Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,238
Faversham
But he did fail to deliver on his promises. He promised to build a wall. He didn't. Immigrants kept arriving and taking their jobs.

I'd be surprised if he delivered any of his promises.
My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not. And their sense of freedom would derive from a sense that Trump was making them feel more free (if that's what he has claimed). He will also claim the wall has been built (a tiny bit has) or that its completion has been blocked by traitors (probably led by crooked Hillary). And his supporters will agree.

The reality is that most American voters are neither advantaged nor disadvantaged by any president ("Roosevelt New Deal", and Reagan's tax cutting and public spending cutting being exceptions). And it is all about what the supporters (his especially) think. Or feel, I should say.

There is a poster on here, largely sensible as far as I can see, whose feeling is that Trump is a better option than Biden. And so it goes.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,207
Goldstone
My caveat was "key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him". Their wealth won't have been affected by the wall, built or not.

Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,238
Faversham
Immigration does affect the wealth of the population, as immigrants take jobs etc. Trump would also argue that immigrants commit crime, which affects people's wealth.
That's correct.

So, since you're arguing with me, I deduce you think that Trumps loyal supporters will feel poorer and less free because they realize he failed with the wall, and will therefore vote for Biden.

Only time will tell, of course, but that isn't my expectation.

I wonder what @lasvegan thinks?
 




Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,594
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?
There are plenty of YouTube videos from eminent medical people who are saying whilst Biden's cognitive slowdown is due to old age, Trump's memory recall is far more alarming and symptomatic of dementia.

At times he can't seem to tell the difference between Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi, Biden and Obama, or recall clearly what he did and didn't accomplish in his first term from what Obama or Biden have done.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,238
Faversham
Exactly this. You understand!
Update....

At the end of the day either Trump will win or he won't. I assume there must be swing voters in America or one or other party will always win. I would imagine they have mostly made up their minds now.

Here are some numbers from Wiki accessed today

1711124757949.png
 


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