Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again. In a nation where less than half the population have a passport, and don't think much beyond their family circle, it can be rather hard to get traction over issues rooted in the 'greater good'. Especially when the evidence that the greater good is best served by whatever policy is on offer is not transparent.No one has a crystal ball but word is on the ground, at least in Michigan, the Dems are very concerned about Trump but resigned themselves long ago to get behind Biden rather than field another candidate - there was a belief Biden would be the only one to beat him - that’s come back to haunt them - the majority of Dems support Biden and will vote for him just to keep out Trump but feel he is too old to do the job. I wrote to family members back in December 2022 who work for the DNC and said I thought it would be a mistake if Biden should stand for a second term - it didn’t go down very well!
Americans largely did not want a repeat of the 2016 race between these two candidates- they wanted a change. But they are polling support for Trump on policies. Biden’s immigration policies and his restructuring plan has yet to have an effect (in part because the Republicans in the Senate has blocked funding each step of the way) and the levels of post-Covid global inflation hurt Americans badly and while inflation levels have gone down, Biden is paying the price. Trump‘s isolationist policies and rhetoric is winning over large swathes of the electorate who believe by blocking imports from China (even at the risk of triggering world-wide trade wars and uncontrolled import tariffs) and drilling for oil in the Arctic National Reserve (against existing environmental regulations) Trump will give them more money in their pocket.
Not only is Trump an isolationist (when he doesn’t need his fascist friends to help get him elected). but he is a popularist who espouses whatever he thinks the electorate want to hear at the podium. It is difficult to counter that with an agenda that seeks global cooperation, equitable immigration policies and sustainable policies with regard to environmental protection and climate change. Biden’s policy of unconditionally supporting Israel has angered some of his support especially in Michigan but he has modified his approach somewhat in recent days. People forget too easily that Trump’s support for Netanyahu went so far as to come up with a ‘peace plan’ that moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, handed over a third of the occupied territories in the West Bank to Israel and, ruled out a two State solution that would grant independence for the Palestinians - if the electorate think Trump’s policies on Israel will bring peace in the ME they are sorely mistaken and have very short memories.
In short, polls are indicating electors will vote for whoever promises to give them more money in their pocket - such is the shallow, gullible and selfish world we live in.