- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,366
It wont be like that imho.
To take the two sides individually, Russia under Putin wont stop now, Putin needs the war and now the war economy to sustain him in power, there is no going back to any type of status quo, as the days of business as usual are gone, at least until there is a new Russian leader pursuing a new direction. Its likely that when Putin falls, it will be an attempt at another hardliner, but if his whole house of cards falls with him, any new leader would most likley try and distance themselves from "Putins war" throw him under the bus and do what is required to get Russia back into the global economy, that would definitely mean Ukraine within its 1991 borders.
An article I read a few days ago headline stated. "Russian cannot afford to lose, but they also cannot afford to win". It literally cannot financially, and locked in perpetuity out much of the global trade/finance system under sanctions.
As long as Putin is alive, he will never settle for a frozen conflict, he wants all of Ukraine.
On the Ukraine side, You need to understand Ukrainian society, there is simply no chance any Ukrainian leader could concede territory now, under any circumstance and remain leader. It would be akin to Netanyahu trying to give a chunk of Jerusalem away. He'd be dead long before that was signed, as would Zelensky or the next guy.
The level of societal outrage, violation and hatred towards Russia is something few will truly comprehend. The Ukrainains will fight with rocks and sticks before they signed any agreement on the moving of a border, conceding a CM or abandoning their people into the Russian fascist world. Not Zelensky, not the next leader.
Ukraines will to fight doesnt depend on the US or west, only its military capability. They may one day lose and be subjugated, that wont ever come voluntarily from a deal.
Nobody but nobody trusts anything the Russians say or promise, and there's been too many murdered, raped and died for their country for any deals with Moscow.
Even though its currently very difficult with the Kremlin wing of the Republican party holding up aid, I am still optimistic that Ukraine will return to it 1991 borders. I dont believe Russia or Putin can sustain this indefinitely.
