[Politics] Brexit

[pastafarian]

Nope. There'll be a huge crash and people will lose homes, cars, marriages and livelihoods !

When does this huge crash because of Brexit begin? Surely you have a date.
Or is this something else you have invented for your own head?

 

[The Clamp]

When does this huge crash because of Brexit begin? Surely you have a date.
Or is this something else you have invented for your own head?

I'd estimate sometime around end of 2017/start of 2018.

 

[pastafarian]

I'd estimate sometime around end of 2017/start of 2018.

thanks for the honest reply.

i look forward to asking you early in 2018 why your predictions are so crap

 

[The Clamp]

thanks for the honest reply.

i look forward to asking you early in 2018 why your predictions are so crap

Sad thing is, you probably will be looking forward to it.

 

[pastafarian]

Sad thing is, you probably will be looking forward to it.

no
ill just be happy in the knowledge that all those pinpointing a huge economic crash by the end of 2017/early 2018 because of brexit were full of scaremongering defeatist crap.
Its just you though at the moment thats forecasting this.

 

[The Clamp]

no
ill just be happy in the knowledge that all those pinpointing a huge economic crash by the end of 2017/early 2018 because of brexit were full of scaremongering defeatist crap.
Its just you though at the moment thats forecasting this.

Whatever. Night night.

 

[Baldseagull]

How do you deny entry based on serious convictions if you cant see what their criminal convictions are?
Mr Farage it seems knows more than you do on this matter.

Yes we can access criminal records from across The EU since 2012, but only after a request is made for this information in matters such as criminal investigations and court proceedings.
Swiping an I.D. or passport at our border control will not automatically show up the criminal history of a EU citizen from The European Criminal Records Information System.

All that is checked on entry of a EU national into the UK is ID against data on the Schengen Information System ,this data lists alerts about wanted persons via an arrest warrant or missing persons and objects such as cars wanted in connection with a crime.
There are no historical criminal records kept on the Schengen Information System either.

You do seem to be happy though for all EU citizens to have their convictions checked via a request before entry can be permitted. In this instance Leavers will agree with you,for those wishing to come here to work and live they should have their background checked, its called having proper border controls and issuing relevant visas for entry after relevant checks.

I suspect Farage does know more about this than me, but he has no problem misrepresenting the facts when it suits him.
As I have posted previously, not only can we do it, we have done it. The system does include information on persons with convictions for serious crimes and are considered a risk, but not all, and not all member states do this, there is room for improvement no doubt, but it is not part of EU legislation that we are not allowed to turn away an EU citizen that we feel poses a risk.

 

[pastafarian]

Whatever. Night night.

cheerio


when you come back dont forget to post your economic forecast breakdown of data that you analysed that led you to the conclusion a huge crash is due late 17/early 18.

or maybe just post your next shopping list for the supermarket.

either set of info will do to reveal your workings

 

[The Clamp]

cheerio


when you come back dont forget to post your economic forecast breakdown of data that you analysed that led you to the conclusion a huge crash is due late 17/early 18.

or maybe just post your next shopping list for the supermarket.

either set of info will do to reveal your workings

I usually use last shops receipt as a shopping list, handy tip that. Will that do?

 

[pastafarian]

I suspect Farage does know more about this than me, but he has no problem misrepresenting the facts when it suits him.
As I have posted previously, not only can we do it, we have done it. The system does include information on persons with convictions for serious crimes and are considered a risk, but not all, and not all member states do this, there is room for improvement no doubt, but it is not part of EU legislation that we are not allowed to turn away an EU citizen that we feel poses a risk.

The system does not show previous convictions of people that have served their time.
It does not show if a person has served time for multiple convictions of rape or murder or child trafficking, to take the worst scenarios, it doesnt show if the person has numerous convictions for pick pocketing or burglary.

These people may just waltz in have their I.D. swiped and none are the wiser.

I doubt you would want these people to be allowed to come and live and work here, neither do i.
At least a visa system for living and working here would allow our authorities to assess previous convictions and issue a visa accordingly or not

 

[pastafarian]

I usually use last shops receipt as a shopping list, handy tip that. Will that do?

yes it will do
will be about as useful as any other info you have used to predict your forthcoming economic crash with such a specific time period

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Corrected for you.

In answer to your "correction", I do not reject the democratic will of the people and I am happy to accept that this country could have a prosperous future outside the EU.

On a very serious note, I think most political scientists and historians would accept that the rejection of intellectualism and the politicisation of the Civil Service are two marks of fascism. The first of those is exactly what is happening in this country today, and the second is what Nigel Farage was calling for the other day when he said, following the resignation of the ambassador to the EU, that the whole of the foreign office should be cleared out from top to bottom.

The independence of the Civil Service is enormously important. They are not there to stop BREXIT happening, they are there to do it properly. If Farage, Gove and Redwood were left to their own devices, it would be disastrous. They would very soon find out that it is "not as simple as that".

 

[alfredmizen]

In answer to your "correction", I do not reject the democratic will of the people and I am happy to accept that this country could have a prosperous future outside the EU.

On a very serious note, I think most political scientists and historians would accept that the rejection of intellectualism and the politicisation of the Civil Service are two marks of fascism. The first of those is exactly what is happening in this country today, and the second is what Nigel Farage was calling for the other day when he said, following the resignation of the ambassador to the EU, that the whole of the foreign office should be cleared out from top to bottom.

The independence of the Civil Service is enormously important. They are not there to stop BREXIT happening, they are there to do it properly. If Farage, Gove and Redwood were left to their own devices, it would be disastrous. They would very soon find out that it is "not as simple as that".

The politicisation of the civil service started in earnest under Blair.

 

[Baldseagull]

The system does not show previous convictions of people that have served their time.
It does not show if a person has served time for multiple convictions of rape or murder or child trafficking, to take the worst scenarios, it doesnt show if the person has numerous convictions for pick pocketing or burglary.

These people may just waltz in have their I.D. swiped and none are the wiser.

I doubt you would want these people to be allowed to come and live and work here, neither do i.
At least a visa system for living and working here would allow our authorities to assess previous convictions and issue a visa accordingly or not

I don't want that sort of person to be allowed to come to Sussex from Scotland, or Wales, either, but not as much as I like the freedom for all to move around. It is a question of who you regard as a foreigner, most of the problems and difficulties of the EU can be solved by being more integrated, and that is the way I would prefer to solve them.
The most successful Countries of today are Countries made up of what were once smaller states, now joined together, either as a federation, or as one nation.

 

[beorhthelm]

The most successful Countries of today are Countries made up of what were once smaller states, now joined together, either as a federation, or as one nation.

where they share common hertiage, not where differing philiosophies and lifestyles have been flung together. they usually end acrimoniously. we're the best example, having worked very well with Scotland with shared world outlook and more in common than different. we used to have another partner, Ireland, but too many differences lead to them wanting out.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Why are you surprised, is it compulsory to visit France then, i have not visited Germany, Scotland or Ireland either......hopefully Spain, Austria, USA, Cuba, Jamaica, Greece meet with your approval.

Touchy. I am surprised for the reason I gave - France is nearer to Brighton than most of the U.K. that's all.

 

[Soulman]

Touchy. I am surprised for the reason I gave - France is nearer to Brighton than most of the U.K. that's all.

Not touchy, just removing myself from another box that i have been put in.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The politicisation of the civil service started in earnest under Blair.

I admit before Blair and the Labour party got to power, the Tories where terrible, but little did we know how much the Labour party would change this country for the worse. Voting for the Labour party in 1997 was the worst thing I did. I really hope this country never sees another Labour government come to power again, because after all the politically correct, nanny state rubbish they have left behind, people like 53 properties Blair wants to come back again.

 

[Soulman]

Nope. There'll be a huge crash and people will lose homes, cars, marriages and livelihoods but as long as we have our freedom from Europe, who cares?!

You and others have been predicting a "huge crash" since well before the actual referendum result. The supposed downturn was happening pre Brexit, because of the uncertainty, according to you and others.
Now you are predicting 2017/2018, giving yourself another up to two years grace.
Meanwhile outside your thoughts, the report from the Guardian yesterday........NOT the Mail, Telegraph, Sun etc

Why has the UK economy defied predictions of doom?



Larry Elliott Economics editor

Thursday 5 January 2017 12.09 GMT
Last modified on Friday 6 January 2017 00.15 GMT



First it was manufacturing. Then it was construction. Now the hat-trick of UPBEAT economic news has been completed by the strongest performance by the services sector in 17 months.

It goes without saying that this is NOT what the Treasury or the Bank of England expected at the time of the EU referendum last June. At the time, there was talk of the economy plunging straight into recession.
UK services sector grows at FASTEST pace for MORE than a year


This week’s reports from purchasing managers point to growth of 0.5% in the final three months of 2016 compared with 0.6% in the third quarter. Post-referendum forecasts for 2016 were quickly shredded by the Bank of England when it became clear that activity had not collapsed. Likewise, predictions for 2017 may also soon be revised upwards.

There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, the economy had momentum in late 2016 which will persist into the first few months of 2017. Secondly, the international outlook is looking brighter than it was a few months ago. Donald Trump’s tax-cutting agenda means the US economy is going to grow rapidly this year and that’s good news for UK exporters.

Finally, the stance of both fiscal and monetary policy in the UK has become more growth friendly since the referendum. Philip Hammond throttled back on the government’s austerity plans in last November’s autumn statement, reinforcing the impact of Bank of England’s decision three months earlier to cut interest rates and embark on a new round of quantitative easing.

When it cut rates to 0.25% in August the Bank signalled that a further cut was likely to be needed. Clearly, that is no longer going to happen. Official borrowing costs will remain where they are for now but there is a good chance of the next move from Threadneedle Street being a rate rise.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/why-uk-economy-defied-predictions-doom-brexit-vote

 

[studio150]

Next saying price rises of 5% due to higher import costs and Jamie Oliver closing a number if restaurants in part due to Brexit.

Its not all plain sailing to the pot of gold at the end of the Brexit process. Although the pot of gold may always be on the horizon