[Politics] Brexit

[Steve in Japan]

Juncker vows to use new powers to block the far-right (from the Times today)

An extract from the article

"Under powers given to the commission in 2014, he [Juncker] can trigger a “rule of law mechanism” for countries that depart from democratic norms by putting a government under constitutional supervision. Ultimately, a country can be stripped of voting rights in the EU or have funding blocked.

In a test run for the new EU constitutional powers, the commission has issued unprecedented orders to Poland, instructing the newly elected right-wing government to bow to Polish judges who have struck down laws passed by the parliament."

What this means is that if the EU disapproves of an elected government in any given country, it can and will exercise power to make that government toe the line. I find that democratically unacceptable. As usual with these things, its not clear who approved these powers, what checks and balances exist etc.

I am sharing this because I was not aware.

 

[Gwylan]

There's an interesting theory in this week's Observer from Andrew Rawnsley. His thesis is that Boris, will nominally in the Leave camp, is secretly hoping for a Remain vote. He says that's why BoJo has come out with increasingly bonkers statements about Hitler, bananas and such.

The thinking behind it is that he wants to be PM. If the UK voted leave, then he'd be a prime position to be voted PM after Cameron quit. But that would involve a lot of hard negotiating, poring over the fine print - and as Rawnsley says, Boris doesn't really do detail.

On the other hand, if the UK voted to stay, Cameron is still resigning within the next couple of years and Johnson would be a prime candidate to mop up the anti-EU Tories (they're not going to go withe Osborne or May).

I thought I was the only person who was considering the possibility that Boris was sabotaging the campaign deliberately. I'm glad that there are some others who have thought that too

 

[Two Professors]

Greg's sister was on the telly last night.A trainee PE teacher debating the referendum with older people in Eastbourne.She didn't actually say they would be dead soon,but implied it,and said her vote was more important than theirs as she wanted to work in Europe,selfish bitch.There have been teacher exchanges and job opportunities in Europe since Queen Victoria's day you know-nothing dimwit!Shame we can't deport some of our own citizens!
Cameron's latest lies are all about holidays being more expensive-he should be happy.He's been propagandising for British holidays for years.

 

[beorhthelm]

There's an interesting theory in this week's Observer from Andrew Rawnsley. His thesis is that Boris, will nominally in the Leave camp, is secretly hoping for a Remain vote.

the theory overlooks the fact that Boris has long been a eurosceptic, and on the assumption he really wants to be leader that much (as opposed to coveting the position out of competitiveness). the logic of the argument would apply for him equally if he campaigned lightly to remain, and i note May has been pretty quiet on the Remain campaign.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You might not pay much attention to them but plenty of people will, which is the Leave campaign's intention. If a government minister suggests that Turkey is about to join the EU, that the UK doesn't have a veto and 80m people could rock up down the road then people will be scared even if the woman is lying through her teeth. Not exaggerating. Lying.

And Hitler? I see you're taking the Jacob Rees-Mogg line that the sober Mr Johnson was drawing a narrow historical parallel between a specific aspect of Hitler's genocidal warmongering and the European Union. Come on! You know perfectly well what he was doing - he was trying to associate the 20th century's most hated tyrant with the EU.

I've said elsewhere that some of the Remain claims look simplistic to me but what are these compared to the Leavers' deliberately drawn visions of millions of murky Muslims on our doorstep as euro-tyrants march across the continent once again? These are nasty, manipulative and untrue and take scaremongering to a new level. Lightweight banter? Not really.

If you removed your ..

.. you would see the opposite is true.The remain/government side has taken fearmongering, manipulation, exaggeration, disinformation, lying to a whole new level. It's been so blatant and continuous it's almost backfired but as the polls show it works. Leave has responded (rather belatedly in my view) but their efforts pale into insignificance compared to the campaign you continually turn a blind eye to.

 

[Bakero]

Sheep, yep! Baa lambs worrying about whether they may lose a few hundred quid. I don't need graphs or charts! Will we lose more than in 2008? Conversely what may we gain?

If you removed your ..

.. you would see the opposite is true.The remain/government side has taken fearmongering, manipulation, exaggeration, disinformation, lying to a whole new level. It's been so blatant and continuous it's almost backfired but as the polls show it works. Leave has responded (rather belatedly in my view) but their efforts pale into insignificance compared to the campaign you continually turn a blind eye to.

Come off it. Both sides have been as bad as each other in terms manipulating the truth. Both sides can be accused of fear mongering. One side has pandered to prejudice and stirred up jingoism.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Come off it. Both sides have been as bad as each other in terms manipulating the truth. Both sides can be accused of fear mongering. One side has pandered to prejudice and stirred up jingoism.

I entirely agree with you that both sides are at it. Inevitably, the Remain side will be painting a gloomy picture of life if we left and the Leave side will be rubbishing what we now have. That's to be expected and quite legitimate. Personally I think that scaremongering and lies involving millions of muslims, radical and fearful changes to the communities we live in and the spirit of Adolf on the march are more shady than the (usually financial) scaremongering on the Remain side but that's just my view. JC Footie Genius naturally thinks that nearly all the bad stuff comes from the Remainers, and he did find a nice image of a pair of glasses to rubbish my view so all credit to him.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Come off it. Both sides have been as bad as each other in terms manipulating the truth. Both sides can be accused of fear mongering. One side has pandered to prejudice and stirred up jingoism.

One side being the government machine, big business, European establishment, international political establishment. The ones with all the power who would do anything to retain their control. Not great for democracy or for rebuilding trust in our much criticized institutions.

This has been an unequal contest from the start and you could argue that government and many other supposedly trusted institutions have a greater responsibility to the truth. Perhaps this is naive but you set a dangerous precedent in accepting/excusing their behaviour.

One persons pandering to prejudice is another persons legitimate concerns on immigration and stirring up jingoism ... or having faith in one's country to prosper as an independent nation.

 

[Gwylan]

the theory overlooks the fact that Boris has long been a eurosceptic,

Ah, that's the point, he hasn't - in fact, he's implicitly denied that he is.

He's made many remarks about staying in the EU and bringing Turkey into the fold. See here and here and here. The phrase "I am not by any means an ultra-Eurosceptic. In some ways, I am a bit of a fan of the European Union. If we did not have one, we would invent something like it" doesn't sound to me like the words of hardcore Eurosceptic.

Don't forget, his political hero is Churchill - that ardent pro-European. He clearly sees himself as a man in the Churchill mould.

That's why observers, many of them in his own party, wonder how deep this 'euroscepticism' runs

... and on the assumption he really wants to be leader that much (as opposed to coveting the position out of competitiveness). the logic of the argument would apply for him equally if he campaigned lightly to remain

I don't get that at all. There's strong evidence that about half (or a little over half) on Tory voters are anti-EU. If there were three candidates, all pro-EU, where would their votes go? If there's a anti-EU candidate, he (or she) would mop up votes.

I'm not saying that he is sabotaging the campaign but I do think that he's not bothered whether the Remainers win - as opposed to people like IDS who is genuinely hardcore anti

 

[Mackenzie]

I'm voting out and encouraging all my friends to do the same. We've tried Europe and got absolutely nowhere, time to go it alone.

The people will decide.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Juncker vows to use new powers to block the far-right (from the Times today)

An extract from the article

"Under powers given to the commission in 2014, he [Juncker] can trigger a “rule of law mechanism” for countries that depart from democratic norms by putting a government under constitutional supervision. Ultimately, a country can be stripped of voting rights in the EU or have funding blocked.

In a test run for the new EU constitutional powers, the commission has issued unprecedented orders to Poland, instructing the newly elected right-wing government to bow to Polish judges who have struck down laws passed by the parliament."

What this means is that if the EU disapproves of an elected government in any given country, it can and will exercise power to make that government toe the line. I find that democratically unacceptable. As usual with these things, its not clear who approved these powers, what checks and balances exist etc.

I am sharing this because I was not aware.

No longer a democracy, more like a dictatorship.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Lord Ashcroft - "Same negotiating skills as the EU so called renegotiation...."

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

My dear brothers and sisters.

It doesn't matter what you want. The EU will fail anyway. The rise of the far right (Austria has just fiddled a postal vote to keep out a potential neo nazi PM) across the periphery of the Union - Poland being a prime example - as the new democracies in the east start to demonstrate their racist tendencies as millions of Africans and war displaced middle easterners pour in day after day. Greece still owes €350 BILLION with no hope of ever repaying it, Merkel is tottering in the centerist German Parliament and Marine le pen gobbles up French electorate refuseniks.

The Euro is massively overpriced and is doomed whichever way you examine it. The whole lot is heading south and the U.K. Is surely going to go down with it whether we are in or out as our economy relies so heavily on trade with the continent.

Hannan is right in his analysis as is Farage. But equally so is Cameron and co. I'm voting out because im hoping it may not be already to late to get in the lifeboat but actually...I fear it is.

 

[beorhthelm]

Ah, that's the point, he hasn't - in fact, he's implicitly denied that he is.

He's made many remarks about staying in the EU and bringing Turkey into the fold. See here and here and here. The phrase "I am not by any means an ultra-Eurosceptic. In some ways, I am a bit of a fan of the European Union. If we did not have one, we would invent something like it" doesn't sound to me like the words of hardcore Eurosceptic.

i dont think he has ever outright denied being sceptical about the EU project, and there's an awful lot of qualification in that quote. certainly not hardcore eurosceptic, its a broad church. i'm unconvinced you'd pick a side just to undermine it when you could pick the other side, where the cohort you're trying to impress is split 50/50. shirley you'd lose as many as you gain? now it does play well in the wider, more sceptical membership, i dont know if he's is taken very seriously as a potential leader there. is all a bit conspiratorial when he could simply be against further EU integration on the current path. though i can see why people are confused by his apparent change of direction, he was lite-europhile in the Mayoral days.

 

[Two Professors]

How about

"it is demonstrably probable that Brexit will be a rolling cavalcade of inconvenience and pointless expense based upon all available indicators and informed analysis".

That sounds more like a description of the EU Commission than Brexit!

 

[Bakero]

One side being the government machine, big business, European establishment, international political establishment. The ones with all the power who would do anything to retain their control. Not great for democracy or for rebuilding trust in our much criticized institutions.

This has been an unequal contest from the start and you could argue that government and many other supposedly trusted institutions have a greater responsibility to the truth. Perhaps this is naive but you set a dangerous precedent in accepting/excusing their behaviour.

One persons pandering to prejudice is another persons legitimate concerns on immigration and stirring up jingoism ... or having faith in one's country to prosper as an independent nation.

Aren't the billionaire press barons part of the establishment?

I fully understand people's legitimate concerns re. immigration but the constant drip drip drip of anti-immigrant propaganda skews the debate.

 

[larus]

It's all about the EURO really. Latest report from the IMF has been 'leaked'. They're at loggerheads with Germnay over debt relief (which won't be allowed in Germany as it's unconstitutional), and Greece can't be saved unless it gets debt relief.

So, all you Remainers, please explain how this gets resolved, as the IMF won't sign up for any more bail-out unless there's debt relief. Eventually, Greece will have to leave the EURO, then the markets will look elsewhere, as the 'illusion' of permanency for the EURO will be smashed, so other countries with unsustainable debt (i..e Italy) will be in the firing line. Once the EURO goes, I fear it could go quick and it will be messy. The only solution is Fiscal Union, and that ain't gonna happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/23/markets-welcome-greek-austerity-vote-as-creditors-prepare-to-unl/

Greece needs “unconditional” debt relief if the country is to get its finances back under control and return to fiscal health, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


A debt sustainability analysis (DSA) released by the Fund yesterday described additional cuts faced by Athens as “daunting” as it warned that “ambitious” targets agreed with the country’s creditors would be hard to achieve.


The analysis, parts of which have already leaked, underscores key differences between the IMF and creditors including Germany over the issue of debt relief ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday.


The IMF warned that “low-hanging fruit” in Greece had been “exhausted”.


Providing an “upfront unconditional component” to debt relief was “critical” and would send a “strong and credible signal to markets about the commitment of official creditors to ensuring debt sustainability,” it added.


The Fund has called for a moratorium on debt payments until 2040. Such a move “in itself could contribute to lowering market financing costs” and would “help garner more ownership for reforms,” it said.


Greece currently has a primary surplus target of 0.5pc of GDP this year, climbing to 1.75pc in 2017 and 3.5pc in 2018, which it is expected to maintain for 10 years.


The IMF noted that only a few countries had ever managed a 3.5pc primary budget surplus for more than a decade, and none that had managed to so after suffering deep and protracted recessions.


“In view of this, staff believe that the DSA should be based on a primary surplus over the long run of no more than 1.5pc of GDP,” it said.


“This target would in staff’s view be within the realm of what is plausible.”


Meaningful debt relief as a condition for the IMF's continued participation in Greece's bail-out programme.


It said it “understands and supports” the EU view that relief should be contingent on implementing reforms.


“However, debt relief conditional on policy implementation should not extend beyond the program period [of 2018],” it said, referring to the current three year programme.


Greek stocks rose and government bond yields fell yesterday after Athens approved a series of austerity measures that put it on course to unlock €11bn in fresh bail-out loans.


Yields on benchmark 10-year government debt fell by as much as 25 basis points to a six-month low of 7.2124pc as hopes grew that Greece would secure its next loan tranche today at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.


Bid yields on two-year bonds dropped almost 150 basis points – or 1.5 percentage points, to 8.14pc. Policymakers are widely expected to agree a deal at a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that will release fresh cash to prevent a debt default this summer.


The country needs just under €4bn to clear arrears, while a further €7.2bn is required to cover the country’s debt service costs to November, including a €2.3bn payment to the European Central Bank in July.


The Athens stock exchange rose by as much as 1.9pc yesterday, while Greek bank shares climbed 5.19pc, following a 5.6pc rise last Friday on hopes that a deal could be reached this week.


A separate survey of eurozone services and manufacturing activity showed growth fell to a 16-month low in May. Markit’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged down to 52.9, from 53 in April.


Any reading above 50 signals growth.


Markit said the flash reading indicated that the bloc was growing at a quarterly pace of 0.3pc, which represents a slowdown from the 0.5pc expansion in the first three months of the year. Stronger readings in France and Germany also suggested smaller countries in the 19-nation bloc were struggling.

 

[Boy Blue]

Germany control Europe. They tried in WW2 so as that didn't work they're now doing it by political means. Look at Brussels, German dominated. Anglia Merkel wants total control and politicians like Daventry Cameron do her bidding.

Margaret Thatcher nails it with this and shame she's not around as she'd knock Merkel out.

Hope it works.

Don't know to embed videos.

[tweet]735080930902200320[/tweet]

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

To think the country wont survive on its own, to use your words, it nonsense and I havent seen any post that says that. But you are saying the remain say that

Are you suggesting Iceland will invade, or that others have?

how did we survive before we joined the common market ?
regards
DR

 

[Bladders]

It's all about the EURO really. Latest report from the IMF has been 'leaked'. They're at loggerheads with Germnay over debt relief (which won't be allowed in Germany as it's unconstitutional), and Greece can't be saved unless it gets debt relief.

So, all you Remainers, please explain how this gets resolved, as the IMF won't sign up for any more bail-out unless there's debt relief. Eventually, Greece will have to leave the EURO, then the markets will look elsewhere, as the 'illusion' of permanency for the EURO will be smashed, so other countries with unsustainable debt (i..e Italy) will be in the firing line. Once the EURO goes, I fear it could go quick and it will be messy. The only solution is Fiscal Union, and that ain't gonna happen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/23/markets-welcome-greek-austerity-vote-as-creditors-prepare-to-unl/

Greece needs “unconditional” debt relief if the country is to get its finances back under control and return to fiscal health, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.


A debt sustainability analysis (DSA) released by the Fund yesterday described additional cuts faced by Athens as “daunting” as it warned that “ambitious” targets agreed with the country’s creditors would be hard to achieve.


The analysis, parts of which have already leaked, underscores key differences between the IMF and creditors including Germany over the issue of debt relief ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday.


The IMF warned that “low-hanging fruit” in Greece had been “exhausted”.


Providing an “upfront unconditional component” to debt relief was “critical” and would send a “strong and credible signal to markets about the commitment of official creditors to ensuring debt sustainability,” it added.


The Fund has called for a moratorium on debt payments until 2040. Such a move “in itself could contribute to lowering market financing costs” and would “help garner more ownership for reforms,” it said.


Greece currently has a primary surplus target of 0.5pc of GDP this year, climbing to 1.75pc in 2017 and 3.5pc in 2018, which it is expected to maintain for 10 years.


The IMF noted that only a few countries had ever managed a 3.5pc primary budget surplus for more than a decade, and none that had managed to so after suffering deep and protracted recessions.


“In view of this, staff believe that the DSA should be based on a primary surplus over the long run of no more than 1.5pc of GDP,” it said.


“This target would in staff’s view be within the realm of what is plausible.”


Meaningful debt relief as a condition for the IMF's continued participation in Greece's bail-out programme.


It said it “understands and supports” the EU view that relief should be contingent on implementing reforms.


“However, debt relief conditional on policy implementation should not extend beyond the program period [of 2018],” it said, referring to the current three year programme.


Greek stocks rose and government bond yields fell yesterday after Athens approved a series of austerity measures that put it on course to unlock €11bn in fresh bail-out loans.


Yields on benchmark 10-year government debt fell by as much as 25 basis points to a six-month low of 7.2124pc as hopes grew that Greece would secure its next loan tranche today at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.


Bid yields on two-year bonds dropped almost 150 basis points – or 1.5 percentage points, to 8.14pc. Policymakers are widely expected to agree a deal at a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that will release fresh cash to prevent a debt default this summer.


The country needs just under €4bn to clear arrears, while a further €7.2bn is required to cover the country’s debt service costs to November, including a €2.3bn payment to the European Central Bank in July.


The Athens stock exchange rose by as much as 1.9pc yesterday, while Greek bank shares climbed 5.19pc, following a 5.6pc rise last Friday on hopes that a deal could be reached this week.


A separate survey of eurozone services and manufacturing activity showed growth fell to a 16-month low in May. Markit’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) edged down to 52.9, from 53 in April.


Any reading above 50 signals growth.


Markit said the flash reading indicated that the bloc was growing at a quarterly pace of 0.3pc, which represents a slowdown from the 0.5pc expansion in the first three months of the year. Stronger readings in France and Germany also suggested smaller countries in the 19-nation bloc were struggling.

I can guarantee the REMAINERS will totally ignore your post.