[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

Care to detail when sterling last fell a MASSIVE 8% ? Talk about scaremongering ..... ONLY 8% indeed !!!!

Yes 8% is quite conservative. http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/10...er-eu-vote-niesr/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true


"The pound could fall by as much 20 per cent if Britain votes to leave the European Union this summer, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).


Warning of a “significant” economic shock that could await the UK, including a 0.8 percentage point hit to growth, the think-tank said a weaker pound would result in an “intense bout of inflationary pressure” should Britain vote to leave, writes Mehreen Khan.

Inflation would rise by 2-4 percentage points more after a “Brexit” compared to the aftermath of a decision to remain, Niesr calculated.

Sterling has fallen ahead of the referendum on June 23, although it has picked up against the dollar more recently. The euro is currently trading at £0.787.

A weaker currency would also provide no boost to British export industries due to their lost access to EU markets after June 23, added NIESR. It said British exports would fall between 10-29 per cent, noting:

The weaker pound would also lead to higher import prices, feeding through into higher prices faced by households. Lower prices for our exports, coupled with higher import prices, leads to a persistent deterioration in the terms of trade.

A host of major international organisations have now calculated the economic impact of Brexit. The OECD has said every British household would lose the equivalent of one month’s income over four years. The International Monetary Fund has spoken of the “severe” economic damage that could await for the UK outside the EU."

I feel a bit like Cassandra here. This is a link from this morning btw.

 

[Two Professors]

Richard Kemp is a fruitcake who is involved in something called 'Christian Zionism' and who claims to have conversations with dead people. Just the ticket for the wacky Breibart website. Quote away.

It's all very well hiding behind your computer to condemn somebody as a fruitloop.Why don't you contact him with your views about religion.But don't even think of criticising his knowledge of security and military matters unless you can match his service to this country,which I somehow doubt!

 

[portslade seagull]

It would have to be to support 80 million people....by 2030...

Think you are underestimating there

 

[Soulman]

It's all very well hiding behind your computer to condemn somebody as a fruitloop.Why don't you contact him with your views about religion.But don't even think of criticising his knowledge of security and military matters unless you can match his service to this country,which I somehow doubt!

Exactly what i thought after Richard Kemp was belittled.

 

[5ways]

If a certain German cow hadnt invited everyone over they could have prevented making it much much worse.
instead,she gave a green light to traffickers to drown people in dangerous boats,she enabled those dishing out fake passports to cash in and enabled terrorists to travel and commit murder

god knows how many are dead because of her
she has blood on her hands

Yes that was a very bad call I agree.

 

[beorhthelm]

That doesn't fatally compromise the argument. However you want to cut the cake it is an economy 6.2% smaller. It is a permanently poorer country with poorer people in it. If it is not precisely £4300 - say it's £4000, or £3500 - it is still thousands of pounds worse off. I want the strongest possible economy, that benefits the widest group of people.

firstly, the economy wont be 6% smaller. it might be 6% smaller than it otherwise might be. so instead of grown 30% it might be 24% (not accounting for compounding). it might have grown only 20% or 35% due to other government and global economic policy. secondly, the comparison is today's household income being worth £74k, so please lets take this into account so that people understands what the forecasted estimate means in context. thirdly, the GDP figures are routinely out or adjusted by the .1% a quater this forecast counts for, so its within the margin for error on Tresaury numbers.

 

[portslade seagull]

Yes 8% is quite conservative. http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/10...er-eu-vote-niesr/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true


"The pound could fall by as much 20 per cent if Britain votes to leave the European Union this summer, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).


Warning of a “significant” economic shock that could await the UK, including a 0.8 percentage point hit to growth, the think-tank said a weaker pound would result in an “intense bout of inflationary pressure” should Britain vote to leave, writes Mehreen Khan.

Inflation would rise by 2-4 percentage points more after a “Brexit” compared to the aftermath of a decision to remain, Niesr calculated.

Sterling has fallen ahead of the referendum on June 23, although it has picked up against the dollar more recently. The euro is currently trading at £0.787.

A weaker currency would also provide no boost to British export industries due to their lost access to EU markets after June 23, added NIESR. It said British exports would fall between 10-29 per cent, noting:

The weaker pound would also lead to higher import prices, feeding through into higher prices faced by households. Lower prices for our exports, coupled with higher import prices, leads to a persistent deterioration in the terms of trade.

A host of major international organisations have now calculated the economic impact of Brexit. The OECD has said every British household would lose the equivalent of one month’s income over four years. The International Monetary Fund has spoken of the “severe” economic damage that could await for the UK outside the EU."

I feel a bit like Cassandra here. This is a link from this morning btw.

Would, could, might, predicted .. the truth is nobody really knows what the outcome will be. We could might possibly be 4300 better off leaving who knows

 

[Soulman]

Richard Kemp is a fruitcake who is involved in something called 'Christian Zionism' and who claims to have conversations with dead people. Just the ticket for the wacky Breibart website. Quote away.

Sorry, had to post it again....... "Colonel Richard Kemp, a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee"

 

[5ways]

firstly, the economy wont be 6% smaller. it might be 6% smaller than it otherwise might be. so instead of grown 30% it might be 24% (not accounting for compounding). it might have grown only 20% or 35% due to other government and global economic policy. secondly, the comparison is today's household income being worth £74k, so please lets take this into account so that people understands what the forecasted estimate means in context. thirdly, the GDP figures are routinely out or adjusted by the .1% a quater this forecast counts for, so its within the margin for error on Tresaury numbers.

Yes thanks for the clarification.

 

[portslade seagull]

Sorry, had to post it again....... "Colonel Richard Kemp, a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee"

Soulman he is a fruitloop because he has spoken out against the remainers

 

[pastafarian]

immigration debate with an audience on newsnight now if anyone interested

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

immigration debate with an audience on newsnight now if anyone interested

2 things will crop up,immigration and 4300 worse off.....

 

[Soulman]

Soulman he is a fruitloop because he has spoken out against the remainers

Hmmm. When we are presented with the COULD and MIGHT and do not agree a debate on the COULD and MIGHT continues by us (no experts) and those with a biased opinion..... put up an opinion by a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee..... who not only has an opinion but might actually know a bit, and the man is put forward as a "fruitcake"....... desperate eh.

 

[5ways]

Would, could, might, predicted .. the truth is nobody really knows what the outcome will be. We could might possibly be 4300 better off leaving who knows

If you were at the bookies and 9/10 people backed the horse Junker's Travelling Circus and you needed to win a quid to get the bus home would you lump on that or would you think...well they could, they might be wrong, who really knows? and instead go large on Mystery Boris Surprise?

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

If you were at the bookies and 9/10 people backed the horse Junker's Travelling Circus and you needed to win a quid to get the bus home would you lump on that or would you think...well they could, they might be wrong, who really knows? and instead go large on Mystery Boris Surprise?

Is it the National?.....that big worldwide field with lot's of options and chances or a small EU Brighton race...

 

[Soulman]

If you were at the bookies and 9/10 people backed the horse Junker's Travelling Circus and you needed to win a quid to get the bus home would you lump on that or would you think...well they could, they might be wrong, who really knows? and instead go large on Mystery Boris Surprise?

Crikey your argument to stay in and your examples are getting weaker and desperate. We are talking about OUR future, our children's future, not putting a quid on at the bookies.

 

[5ways]

Is it the National?.....that big worldwide field with lot's of options and chances or a small EU Brighton race...

Maybe a bad example as I've never bet on anything

You see my point though...

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Maybe a bad example as I've never bet on anything

You see my point though...

Try it sometime,you might strike lucky..

Edit: i don't do dogs horses or gamble either,odd lotto ticket.....now and again...but i will gamble this vote

 

[Soulman]

Maybe a bad example as I've never bet on anything

You see my point though...

no i do not see your point. I do admire you for coming up with all these COULD and MIGHT theories, none of which can be backed up with facts though.

 

[5ways]

Crikey your argument to stay in and your examples are getting weaker and desperate. We are talking about OUR future, our children's future, not putting a quid on at the bookies.

What I'm trying to say is 90% of people ITK are for remain. Across politics and economics. Why go all in with a 10% chance to win?