sydney
tinky ****in winky
I think we have the players and the style to go all the way but the mental strength of this team and the ability to miss chances and be bullied by physical teams seem to be our downfall.
innit...!
innit...!
So how do you explain that Wigan had managerial upheavals MID-SEASON and are flying past us? Smacks of excuses to me, if you are a good manager you can make an impact on a team reasonably quickly
My answer is we should make the play-offs with our squad but various stumbles mean it will go to last day between us and Reading. Play-off tournaments usually favour the tactically bold adventurous teams so that's us at a disadvantage straight away
We've got 17pts from our last 10 games, Reading have got 18pts, Ipswich 15pts, Forest 10pts. It's going to be tough for any of these teams to get in the playoffs, it's an incredibly tough league (if anyone hadn't noticed over the past 2.75 seasons). To be fair our form is only fractionally worse than Reading's, but better than both Ipswich (despite the defeat) and Forest (obviously).
2 pts per game should get us there in my opinion. 4 pts from the next 2 and it has still been a very good March.
We won't get there.
Even if by some miracle we get promoted, this team would be annihilated in the Premierwhateveritscalledthesedays.
The play offs most definitely are not a lottery.
The team most likely to win are the one who finished 3rd, followed by the team who came 4th etc etc
And yet we are three points behind 6th with a game in hand. You must know the Queen quite well.
Then why don't the stats show this?
So how do you explain that Wigan had managerial upheavals MID-SEASON and are flying past us? Smacks of excuses to me, if you are a good manager you can make an impact on a team reasonably quickly
As a guess
the 3rd place team will it ~ 30% of the time
4th ~ 26%
5th ~ 23%
6th ~ 21%
Even over a sample of 20 years:
3rd - 8 (40%)
4th - 2 (10%)
5th - 6 (30%)
6th - 4 (20%)
4th is the anomaly over this short period. As you've said you'd need to do this over a longer time frame.
If you think of the semi-finals, the winners of 3rd vs 6th have won the playoffs 12 times out of 20.
Even over a sample of 20 years:
3rd - 8 (40%)
4th - 2 (10%)
5th - 6 (30%)
6th - 4 (20%)
4th is the anomaly over this short period. As you've said you'd need to do this over a longer time frame.
If you think of the semi-finals, the winners of 3rd vs 6th have won the playoffs 12 times out of 20.