House prices to crash

[SI 4 BHA]

OK, I'll give you a little challenge.

I will continue to post information to suggest the housing market is in trouble and house prices are going down.
For balance, as an Estate Agent, I invite you to post information that suggests the market is bouyant and house prices are going up.

No rhetoric no bullshit. Are you up for it.

How about this, just received from the Hove Business Association today.
http://www.brightonbusiness.co.uk/htm/ni20100908.042002.htm

 

[Titanic]

Just in case you can't link to it...

"Brighton & Hove house price update Q2 2010

Land Registry figures show that the average house price in the city [£221,858] in the second quarter of 2010 was just under 6% lower than the high of £235,939 in November 2007. Over the last year prices in Brighton & Hove have risen 18.2% compared to 8.4% nationally.

With local prices increasing quicker than the national average, prices in the city are now 34% higher than the England & Wales average [up from 32% last quarter].

The income required to buy a one-bed flat priced at the average cost of £168,449 [£420 more than in the first quarter of 2010] would be £38,873 [up from £38,776 in the first quarter] assuming a £42,112 deposit [25%] and a mortgage of 3.25x earnings for the balance."

 

[Uncle C]

I have stopped posting the gloomy news on here for a while as its like shooting fish in a barrel. All a bit too easy to find.

I have noticed that our resident Estate Agent has not been able to rise to the challenge and has posted nothing to support his fairy tale that house prices are still on the up.

 

[Uncle C]

But if you insist:

House prices are falling in every region of the UK for the first time since April last year, figures reveal today.
The average cost of a home dropped by 0.4 per cent during September to £157,600, against the background of a mortgage famine and falling confidence, according to industry analysts Hometrack.


Read more: Mortgage drought: House prices fall everywhere in UK, even in London | Mail Online

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1315423/Mortgage-drought-House-prices-fall-UK-London.html

 

[Uncle C]

And:

Lloyds Banking Group, which provided 60 per cent of all buy-to-let mortgages last year, is to cut maximum lending to landlords to a fifth of what the bank was willing to advance in 2009.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100007662/lloyds-slams-brakes-on-buy-to-let-mortgages/

 

[Uncle C]

And:

Prices of luxury London homes drop for first time in 18 months

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8023592/Prices-of-luxury-London-homes-drop-for-first-time-in-18-months.html

 

[Billy the Fish]

Uncle C, I was just looking for a graph of actual prices to compare to your bubble graph and found this site which is being updated every quarter.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php

Very interesting that two years on from the original thread the actual prices are still following the model.

Original thread is here

http://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?t=146632

 

[Uncle C]

And:

UK property prices could fall 10% as banks report fewer mortgage approvals.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/23/house-prices-mortgage-approvals-recession

 

[Uncle C]

And:

FSA action on liar loans (uncertified loans) could knock house prices by up to 25%. In the first quarter of 2010 43% of all mortgages were still uncertified.

http://web.me.com/henry.pryor/Housing_Expert/Comment/Entries/2010/9/23_FSA_action_could_knock_house_prices_by_up_to_25.html

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

There's signs outside One Brighton at the moment advertising 'one and two bedroom homes starting at £210,000'. I'm sure they're very nice, but how on earth does a young couple or single person wanting a starter home get the deposit together for one of those?

 

[Uncle C]

There's signs outside One Brighton at the moment advertising 'one and two bedroom homes starting at £210,000'. I'm sure they're very nice, but how on earth does a young couple or single person wanting a starter home get the deposit together for one of those?

 

[redneb]

Hate to say it but there are too many factors keeping prices up:

- parents are happy to give their kids money either as a kind of early inheritance or as a cash lump they were intending to use to pay for their wedding.
- where 15 years ago single people were able to buy places on their own, people are just going in together with a mate or partner.
- shared ownership schemes.
- Massive term mortgages making it cheaper in the short term
- people with kids want a place they can call theirs. There's nothing worse than trying to bring kids up in a house where the landlord could kick you out at a months notice.

 

[Uncle C]

Hate to say it but there are too many factors keeping prices up:

- parents are happy to give their kids money either as a kind of early inheritance or as a cash lump they were intending to use to pay for their wedding.
- where 15 years ago single people were able to buy places on their own, people are just going in together with a mate or partner.
- shared ownership schemes.
- Massive term mortgages making it cheaper in the short term
- people with kids want a place they can call theirs. There's nothing worse than trying to bring kids up in a house where the landlord could kick you out at a months notice.

None of these factors are new. All existed during the last two house price crashes in the UK. They didn't stop them.

 

[simonsimon]

"The average age of a first time buyer is now 34 and it is getting older very quickly. The Country will soon be a Nation of Timothy's living at home with Mum and Dad into their 50's and then maybe being able to buy a small place of their own with Mum and Dad's inheritance money. "
Quoted by Uncle Spielberg

After they have paid their parents care costs in later life they will be lucky to buy a bus shelter,

 

[redneb]

None of these factors are new. All existed during the last two house price crashes in the UK. They didn't stop them.

I would definitely say some of them are new

 

[Uncle C]

I would definitely say some of them are new

So which ones are they?

 

[dazzalewis1968]

I have stopped posting the gloomy news on here for a while as its like shooting fish in a barrel. All a bit too easy to find.

I have noticed that our resident Estate Agent has not been able to rise to the challenge and has posted nothing to support his fairy tale that house prices are still on the up.[/
Ha ha not posted as been busy studying for a
FIFA football agent test.

But by all accounts still buyers out there defo
Not all bad out there in the Market place.

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

Housing market to crash in six months time according to the estate agent of a woman at my work who has had her house in Woodingdean on the market for five months and can't sell it. Bring it on.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

And:

FSA action on liar loans (uncertified loans) could knock house prices by up to 25%. In the first quarter of 2010 43% of all mortgages were still uncertified.

http://web.me.com/henry.pryor/Housing_Expert/Comment/Entries/2010/9/23_FSA_action_could_knock_house_prices_by_up_to_25.html

This is not true. Do not get confused with self cert and fast track. The FSA with their pea brains could not understand the difference. Self cert was an income declared but no proof was asked for, fast tack is an income declared but the lender reserves the right at anytime including after the mortgage has gone through to ask for proof of income. Self cert was around 6% of all mortgages tops, but this does not grab headlines or sell papers. Also just because it was self cert does not default into that every person lied about their income, it was abused by some but many self cert loans were legitimate and infact the areas records on self cert mortgage are not much different to status mortgages and for fast track the arrears records are better than status mortgages. All this is ignored by the FSA who have banned self cert mortgages and are going to ban fast track as well.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The main reason for any crash that may or may not occur is the lack of mortgages. The lenders are not lending, they are lending less, even less than in the annus horribilus years of 2008 and 2009. Until the lack of funding is addressed the housing market will stall and then grind to a halt. On top of this the FSA want to make it much harder to get a mortgage in the future.