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[Albion] To Avoid Hürzeler Bashing - The Staying Up and Europe Tracker - season 2024-25 Game 15 Update



Giraffe

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Aug 8, 2005
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So here we go again for the EIGHTH season in the Premier League.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away. The bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Palace, but not West Ham or above.

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. As in the last two seasons I have added the Europe tracker as well. This is targeted at 60 points, so in addition to the above we also need to win at home and draw away to West Ham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Spurs

As the traditional top six are now back in the top sides this may improve the accuracy. Less chance of an under performer this season I'd argue? Palace, sadly, may over perform?

The season is slightly more weighted in favour of the first half with 22 expected points in the first half, 18 in the second half. There is also an earlier divergence between the graph for staying up and Europe (last season the first 6 games were the same).

Last season I guessed we would get 60 points, I was woefully wrong in the end. I'll say mid 50s this time. Hard to justify us finishing above the traditional six plus Newcastle and Villa, so 9th might be as good as it gets?

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Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,360
Living In a Box
Yay, good to see you put your neck on the line with this
 


























Change at Barnham

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2011
5,490
Bognor Regis
Has 60 points recently been enough for Europa League qualification or is 60 points the expected total required to reach the Conference League?
 


Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,535
Cumbria
Awaiting the first 'What no points against Man Utd over the two games, but we've been doing well against them recently' post....

Excellent stuff. Any chance of blending the two trackers into one table to save scrolling!

The season is now officially imminent. Thank you.
 


Han Solo

Well-known member
May 25, 2024
2,722
The Ipswich and Nottingham games are likely to be very important. Preferably need 6 pts from those or the first third of the season may well spark a fair bit of bedwetting.
 








Giraffe

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Aug 8, 2005
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Another point is it is a VERY balanced set of fixtures. The most number of games we are expected to lose on the bounce is only two. Previous seasons have seen more than that.

There are also not too many expected winless streaks, the biggest being the last six games.
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
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Aug 8, 2005
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Has 60 points recently been enough for Europa League qualification or is 60 points the expected total required to reach the Conference League?
More often than not over the last 10 years 60 would be enough for Europe. Obviously the European qualification league position varies from season to season but this is a reasonable measure.
 






Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,694
Another point is it is a VERY balanced set of fixtures. The most number of games we are expected to lose on the bounce is only two. Previous seasons have seen more than that.

There are also not too many expected winless streaks, the biggest being the last six games.

Apart from the three in a row in September/ October against Chelsea, Spurs and Newcastle.
😉
 


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