[Albion] To Avoid De Zerbi Bashing - The Staying Up/Europe Tracker - season 2023-24 - Game 33 Update - 8 OVER

[Psychobilly freakout]

I'm not certain that's the worst thing.

We are very poor against sides who choose not to take risks against us. The title contenders will HAVE to take risks to ensure a win.

I think we're in for a whole load of very spicy games coming up.

agreed, Arsenal will be a bag of nerves Easter Sunday

 

[tigertim68]

agreed, Arsenal will be a bag of nerves Easter Sunday

We are playing Liverpool on Easter Sunday

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

We are playing Liverpool on Easter Sunday

Yeah......

Which is why they will be a bag of nerves

 

[Giraffe]

Adjusted for the Forest FFP.

 

[halbpro]

I'm not certain that's the worst thing.

We are very poor against sides who choose not to take risks against us. The title contenders will HAVE to take risks to ensure a win.

I think we're in for a whole load of very spicy games coming up.

Great point, still odd to think we can (and often do) match up with the big spenders. I am hopeful that the return of Enciso may help us unlock the more defensive minded teams, but if a team really comes at us I agree we're far more likely to make things work

 

[chaileyjem]

The majority of our wins this season have been against teams in the bottom half of the table
Brentford , Wolves, Forest, Forest, Luton, Bournemouth, Palace,

(i think only wins v Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle were teams above us in the table and two of those were back in August when we had March, Mitoma etc)

And the majority of our defeats have been against teams in the top half or above us in the table.
Luton, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Villa, Fulham, West Ham

We have a tough run in...the idea that we overperform against top 10 clubs is a bit overstated.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

The majority of our wins this season have been against teams in the bottom half of the table
Brentford , Wolves, Forest, Forest, Luton, Bournemouth, Palace,

(i think only wins v Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle were teams above us in the table and two of those were back in August when we had March, Mitoma etc)

And the majority of our defeats have been against teams in the top half or above us in the table.
Luton, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Villa, Fulham, West Ham

We have a tough run in...the idea that we overperform against top 10 clubs is a bit overstated.

I think it was fairly stated last year and perhaps the year before when we had a central midfield which was a match for (and in many cases, better) than most of the league.

Sadly, that is not the case with a midfield pivot of Gross and Gilmour, which is what I assume De Zerbi will mostly use in the run-in. To take points off the title contenders and potentially some of the other top sides, we will realistically need another body (Baleba) in midfield. Otherwise we will be swamped by their physicality and speed.

The games against the top 3 should be seen through a similar lens to what it was like in our first few seasons in the Prem (i.e very little chance) not with the optimism we’ve had since April 2022.

 

[chaileyjem]

I think it was fairly stated last year and perhaps the year before when we had a central midfield which was a match for (and in many cases, better) than most of the league.

Sadly, that is not the case with a midfield pivot of Gross and Gilmour, which is what I assume De Zerbi will mostly use in the run-in. To take points off the title contenders and potentially some of the other top sides, we will realistically need another body (Baleba) in midfield. Otherwise we will be swamped by their physicality and speed.

The games against the top 3 should be seen through a similar lens to what it was like in our first few seasons in the Prem (i.e very little chance) not with the optimism we’ve had since April 2022.

We performed well against Liverpool (H) and Man City (A) this season with Gilmour / Gross . Perhaps should have beaten Liverpool - Pedro had a great chance in the last minute. Arsenal (A) - we weren't overwhelmed but they completely dominated for 90 mins. And Villa was a disaster.
We beat Spurs (H) comfortably - perhaps for 70 mins our best performance of the season - and we were certainly competitive for Spurs (A) and should have beaten West Ham (A) .
I don't buy this idea that we perform badly against bottom half teams and the reverse against the top half. Its far more nuanced than that . And i don't buy that without Caicedo / MacAllister or for example Pedro, Mitoma , March - we don't perform either . Its far more nuanced than that.
But the run in is bloody tough.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

We performed well against Liverpool (H) and Man City (A) this season with Gilmour / Gross . Perhaps should have beaten Liverpool - Pedro had a great chance in the last minute. Arsenal (A) - we weren't overwhelmed but they completely dominated for 90 mins. And Villa was a disaster.
We beat Spurs (H) comfortably - perhaps for 70 mins our best performance of the season - and we were certainly competitive for Spurs (A) and should have beaten West Ham (A) .
I don't buy this idea that we perform badly against bottom half teams and the reverse against the top half. Its far more nuanced than that . And i don't buy that without Caicedo / MacAllister we don't perform either . Its far more nuanced than that.
But the run in is bloody tough.

We were worth a point against Liverpool agreed. Baleba actually partnered Gross for that game btw. We also had Solly, Mitoma and Pedro.

Man City we deserved nothing and got nothing.

Arsenal as you say comfortably dominated us.

All three of those teams are performing at an even higher level now. It will be incredibly hard to take points off them. Like I said - it’s more akin to our first few years in the Prem - rather than since April 22 where our record against the top 6 was very good. We were suited to playing them as we had the players who could match them and the games were tactically open. I didn’t say we don’t perform without Caicedo and MacAllister. I said the reason we took points off many of the top teams was because they were a match/better than the opposition. Sadly this can not be said of Gross/Gilmour up against the top midfields.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

The team feels a little weaker than this time last year due to both sales and injuries. That said we were running on fumes by April so maybe the difference will not prove to be so bad in this run in.

 

[Giraffe]

Still 7 over relegation but one lost point v Europe today, so now 9 below Europe. Has RDZ started wetting the bed?

 

[Giraffe]

Full league table updated. Still close at the bottom, and the tracker thinks it's now between Arsenal and Liverpool fore the title. Personally I still think it's gong to be Man City.

 

[Giraffe]

And we will have to end the season reasonably well for this to be our second best season.

 

[Giraffe]

Quick update on the league table as Palace are still not safe. Really tough run in for them. Shame.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Quick update on the league table as Palace are still not safe. Really tough run in for them. Shame.

View attachment 179820

West Ham being +17 is spinning me. A 10 point turn around seems really hard, however, they’re only +3 on us in the real league and still have Liverpool, City, Wolves and Chelsea to play.

 

[Giraffe]

It's a long awaited bonus point v the relegation tracker. Now 8 over. But we needed all 3. Boring boring Brentford. Expected point for Europe so still 9 below Europe. Need a big win Saturday.

 

[Giraffe]

Clear of Bournemouth in 11th now.

Tight at the top

Tight at the bottom.

 

[Weststander]

Effectively trickling along with a win per calendar month since October.

 

[Giraffe]

Another bonus opportunity gone, 7 matches left, 4 free hits.

Still 8 over relegation, 9 below Europe.

 

[jcdenton08]

Do I not like that run-in…