The Albion - Doomsday Scenario

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The board are doing a fantastic job of keeping us out of administration. Always have done. It's a genuine achievement.

However, there is a Doomsday Scenario which, although highly unlikely, is not beyond the realms of possibility, given the current state of play both on and off the pitch. Which involves us being relegated, the season ticket money drying up due to the recession/admission price/footballing reasons, and we end up in administration with a 10 or 15 points deduction.

Don't want to think about it really.

But seems to me that the stakes are high this season, imminent Falmer or no imminent Falmer. And why there have to be soon-come steps taken to keep the football affordable and/or entertaining. Or at least start to ensure mid-table mediocrity this season as a minimum.

Or is that just head-mental talk?

 

[El Presidente]

The problem is easy to identify, the solution less so.

 

[Deano's Invisible Pants]

The board are doing a fantastic job of keeping us out of administration. Always have done. It's a genuine achievement.

However, there is a Doomsday Scenario which, although highly unlikely, is not beyond the realms of possibility, given the current state of play both on and off the pitch. Which involves us being relegated, the season ticket money drying up due to the recession/admission price/footballing reasons, and we end up in administration with a 10 or 15 points deduction.

Don't want to think about it really.

But seems to me that the stakes are high this season, imminent Falmer or no imminent Falmer. And why there have to be soon-come steps taken to keep the football affordable and/or entertaining. Or at least start to ensure mid-table mediocrity this season as a minimum.

Or is that just head-mental talk?

It's not beyond the realms of possibility, but unlikely. Up until now, the board has prevented the club from going into administration by pumping in more cash. I don't think they would have come this far only to decide 'enough is enough'. Although if they were to read some of the comments from 'fans' on this board, who knows.....

 

[bigc]

I thought we couldn't really go into adminstration as we don't really have any assets for the adminstrator, i.e: Ground..

 

[clippedgull]

The board are doing a fantastic job of keeping us out of administration. Always have done. It's a genuine achievement.

However, there is a Doomsday Scenario which, although highly unlikely, is not beyond the realms of possibility, given the current state of play both on and off the pitch. Which involves us being relegated, the season ticket money drying up due to the recession/admission price/footballing reasons, and we end up in administration with a 10 or 15 points deduction.

Don't want to think about it really.

But seems to me that the stakes are high this season, imminent Falmer or no imminent Falmer. And why there have to be soon-come steps taken to keep the football affordable and/or entertaining. Or at least start to ensure mid-table mediocrity this season as a minimum.

Or is that just head-mental talk?

If we get relegated (not that I believe we will), then I believe Falmer will be delayed further.

Not a scenario that any Albion fan wants to face.

 

[Dave the OAP]

I suppose it all depends on how deep the board members pockets are which is our Business case at the moment and has been since we arrived back at Withdean.

The doomsday scenario is gates drop so far that season ticket holders stop going even though they have paid for games ( which is what is happening at Huddersfield at the moment)

 

[timbha]

I thought we couldn't really go into adminstration as we don't really have any assets for the adminstrator, i.e: Ground..

you go into administration when you can't pay your bills -taxes, rent and wages could get us. Without a ground we have no assets to borrow money against so when we don't have the money to pay the bills we have to rely on FBS or the Bloom family to chip in.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

It's not beyond the realms of possibility, but unlikely. Up until now, the board has prevented the club from going into administration by pumping in more cash. I don't think they would have come this far only to decide 'enough is enough'.

Totally agree. But this one helluva financial upheaval. I think its safe to assume that the Albion board don't have bottomless pockets and are subject to the same financial stresses and strains as everybody else. I mean, the thought of RBS being part-nationalised would have appeared ludicrous eight weeks ago.

Just saying that even tho Falmer is some way off, and ever-receding into the distance, this is not a season for the board to think they can just cruise to a mid-table position.

 

[timbha]

The doomsday scenario is gates drop so far that season ticket holders stop going even though they have paid for games ( which is what is happening at Huddersfield at the moment)

surely it's worse if the non season ticket holders stop going.

 

[Dave the OAP]

surely it's worse if the non season ticket holders stop going.

I think we are not that far off that at the moment.

 

[timbha]

I think we are not that far off that at the moment.

correct - my friends only go if they can buy someone's ticket for a tenner. If a ST stops going it's likely he/she will not renew. It's been pretty boring for 2years.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The doomsday scenario is gates drop so far that season ticket holders stop going even though they have paid for games ( which is what is happening at Huddersfield at the moment)

Seems to me Dave, that a whole load of people this season are currently ONLY turning up cos they've pre-paid for a season ticket. Can't see many of them repeating that pre-paid thing next season somehow, for all sorts of footballing and financial meltdown reasons.

 

[Deano's Invisible Pants]

Totally agree. But this one helluva financial upheaval. I think its safe to assume that the Albion board don't have bottomless pockets and are subject to the same financial stresses and strains as everybody else. I mean, the thought of RBS being part-nationalised would have appeared ludicrous eight weeks ago.

Just saying that even tho Falmer is some way off, and ever-receding into the distance, this is not a season for the board to think they can just cruise to a mid-table position.

Agreed. And the long term position is just as worrying. With the increase in cost of the stadium, and the higher cost of debt, my understanding is that the new BEP is going to be between 14,500 and 15,000 at Falmer. With the best marketing activity in the world they are not going to get another 10,000 through the gates without a significant improvement on the pitch. I know it's still 2.5 years away but realistically they've got to have a Championship side to pay for Falmer.

 

[clippedgull]

Agreed. And the long term position is just as worrying. With the increase in cost of the stadium, and the higher cost of debt, my understanding is that the new BEP is going to be between 14,500 and 15,000 at Falmer. With the best marketing activity in the world they are not going to get another 10,000 through the gates without a significant improvement on the pitch. I know it's still 2.5 years away but realistically they've got to have a Championship side to pay for Falmer.

Correct. And we haven't got one now (Championship side). We need serious investment in the playing squad, it's a gamble but the rewards will justify the expense. It's getting to the point of do or die for our club, I fear.

 

[Dave the OAP]

Correct. And we haven't got one now (Championship side). We need serious investment in the playing squad, it's a gamble but the rewards will justify the expense. It's getting to the point of do or die for our club, I fear.

the trouble is with falling gates, and the fact that players know we ae here for the next 3 seasons, where is that investment coming from.

I know the Supporters club are against a Russian Oligarch putting in billions, but I still dont see how joe public is going fund this team that will take us to the Championship.

We do need funding from somewhere....as do 80% of current football teams who most have better grounds than us

 

[Deano's Invisible Pants]

Correct. And we haven't got one now (Championship side). We need serious investment in the playing squad, it's a gamble but the rewards will justify the expense. It's getting to the point of do or die for our club, I fear.

Does anyone know how much extra they're investing in the playing side this year and how this compares to other League 1 sides? I presume that MA is on more than DW and that the arrival of McLeod, Livermore, Virgo and Hawkins will have meant a significant net increase to the wage bill.

 

[SNOOBS]

We are on a bad run, as we were last year. We will have a good run, as we did last year.

 

[timbha]

last year's good run is guaranteed, this season's isn't

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

We are on a bad run, as we were last year. We will have a good run, as we did last year.

I don't think the club can afford that level of complacency. There's a much higher standard of football in this division than there was last season, and that 69 point total last season flattered the team in the extreme. We rarely looked like a 69 points team, and much of that points total was due to the 'headless chicken' Savage/Ravell combo carving unlikely wins out of nothing. Hard to see us doing the same this season.

 

[Jamie]

I have just read the argus comments. Someone talking about reclaiming the club. Makes you wonder if they remember the club being asset stripped and its clear they have nothing good to say for the people that that spent their time and money to save the club. I have a gripe that the club has never tried to sell itself to Sussex and they just expect people to come. However when it came to doing something about it, by writing a marketing plan, I couldn't be bothered as I have a busy job. (I also thought they would only pay lip service or find reasons not to do it and a cant do attitude puts me off).I still think the club are short sighted on this front but there we go.

However, Dick Knight is doing his best and he has delivered planning for a new ground.On the Adams front, then hindsight is a wonderful thing. Not many thought Adams would start so badly. It is clear now though that Adams should not have dismantled the promising side of Wilkins for the long ball hoofers that he has replaced them with. Adams may though, still, turn it around, but even if he doesn't and he has to go then so what. Knight made a decision, and some work, some dont.

The big picture is that Knight has been the best chairman that I can remember (I hardly remember the Bamber years) and I don't think the club is even close to a doomsday situation. In fact I hope the club will over the next 18 months start changing for the better in all sorts of ways.