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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,032
I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.
Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

 






Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,420
Cumbria
Remember 2016?

They got it very wrong - we went to bed in our house expecting to wake up to a Hilary win and it was the orange man who won!

Polls tend to overstate Democratic support

“Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”

“Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected.”

Yes. But that's pre-vote polling. Not the media calling the states, which they do from a combination of early result tallies, exit polling and so on.
 


knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
13,115
As I said fcuk off and go and troll another thread

Leave this one to people that actually want to discuss the issues.
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
 


Madafwo

I'm probably being facetious.
Nov 11, 2013
1,759
I think the media will be very wary of 'calling' the states as they normally do, for fear of retribution if they are wrong, so we might all have to wait until the official results.
Rolling news channels will have hours to fill, and there will be exit polls so they're not going to keep those to themselves.
 




drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,666
Burgess Hill
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
Have you really gone the extra mile to contact others who don't post anymore to find out their reasons. Sterling service.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,032
You started it. 🥱
What the hell are you saying?
You're one of the main reasons NSC numbers are falling.
I've been on the orangebungle**** thread since inception and love it. You might have been there under another name ****.
Leave us individual posters alone.
Started what?

I had a difference of opinion with another poster and made a point of saying he was entitled to his point of view, you trolled me with a post comparing me to Trump with verbal diarrhoea :shrug:

As I said, go and troll another thread - this is one of the best threads on NSC so stop trying to derail it.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,489
Brighton
With every information that is available to us one has to conclude it is on a knife-edge.
No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good. :thumbsup:
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,349
Goldstone
According to this article a reasonable indication could be apparent between 10pm and 11.30pm Eastern - this would be around 3am-4.30am in the UK. Might as well get some sleep, and perhaps get up earlier than normal (presuming you have a relatively normal sleep pattern)


Thanks. I'll try and forget about it and see what it looks like at 7am.

I feel for Ukrainians, they'll have to stay up all night.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
7,032
No you don’t. You can conclude whatever you want. There is no wrong or right in how you read it, it’s merely your interpretation of things.

Yours is that it is on a knife edge - others might not believe the same.

It’s all good. :thumbsup:
Actually you are right.

There is no conclusion to be made - I guess what I meant is that we/well most of us at least are on a knife edge ourselves because we don’t know the conclusion - for all we know Trump or Harris could be leading by a significant majority 🤷‍♂️

And yes - it’s all good - everyone‘s opinion matters 👍
 
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US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,711
Cleveland, OH

Ann Selzer is one of the most highly respected polsters in the country and the authority in Iowa.

If Iowa is within the margin of error, Trump is going to be in for a humiliating night on Tuesday.
 






Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,489
Brighton




Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
10,511
Well then. The last few days.

Many non religious types will be praying for a certain outcome. A few others will be making sure they have a plentiful supply of 'hand lotion', tissues and wet wipes for screen cleaning.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,489
Brighton
Did you see they reported another pollster in Iowa had Trump 9 points ahead!
He won by 8 points last time round, so Seltzer’s is certainly more of an outlier, however her polls are also A* rated and she is pretty much always within 2-3 points.

Who knows?!
 




nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
That poll has certainly shifted the betting market. Not quite to the same extent as the debate, and Trump is still odds-on, but it’s more than just market noise.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,413
Faversham
I'm off to bed.

One final thought. Everyone has a voice. Let others use theirs. After all, this is a forum....
What's you problem? If someone else posts something that doesn't stop your 'voice'.

Perhaps you have nothing to say :shrug:
 


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