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[Albion] Levi Colwill

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Nobby Cybergoat

Members
Jul 19, 2021
4,255
I'm filing it under possible, but unlikely.

Most likely is that he signs the Chelsea contract and plays around the fringes of their first team. Chelsea still have to sell players, but there are enough mug clubs out there to buy the overpaid dross they have in their 3rd team.

But there is a chance that they can't shift the said overpaid dross, and they start to have to look at less palatable options. In this scenario, I think they will want £60m for Colwill. But given his contractual situation, he might go for £40m. If we're in Europe we might look at this and think that it's worth the investment and his value is only going up (we might get £60m a season later). If we're not in Europe, the game is up in my view.

In either case there is no scenario where we pick up the player without other clubs competing with us for his signature. £40m for a player also probably means putting him on more wages than Dunk as well.

It's possible, but unlikely.
 
Jul 7, 2003
12,210
tokyo
I can't see us paying the fee that will be required for him. A young, English, left footed ball playing CB is not going to be sold for much less that £50m. Even if Chelsea do need to sell, other clubs will be willing to pay far more than us.
The fee would certainly be high but I'm not sure it would be as high as 50m.

We sold White for 50m but he had a full season in the premier league with us whereas Colwill at best will have half a season. I think(hope...) half a season is not enough of a sample size to convnce teams who haven't worked with/seen him day in day out that they should spend 50m on him. Which is handy as Chelsea need to sell so they won't be in the same position as us when we sold White/Cucurella for 50m plus.

This, combined with the fact that he may well want to leave Chelsea, means to my mind that he could be available for less - maybe 35m plus any add ons. Depending on what other business we do in the summer I could see us stretching to that as his value would double or more over the next couple of seasons so we'd still be able to make a very decent profit on him.

This theory is admittedly based on the idea that Chelsea don't offload a number of other players which would mean they could hold out for more.

We'll see. I'm not saying we will sign him, just that I don't think it's an impossibility.
 

Javeaseagull

Members
Feb 22, 2014
1,983
I'm filing it under possible, but unlikely.

Most likely is that he signs the Chelsea contract and plays around the fringes of their first team. Chelsea still have to sell players, but there are enough mug clubs out there to buy the overpaid dross they have in their 3rd team.

But there is a chance that they can't shift the said overpaid dross, and they start to have to look at less palatable options. In this scenario, I think they will want £60m for Colwill. But given his contractual situation, he might go for £40m. If we're in Europe we might look at this and think that it's worth the investment and his value is only going up (we might get £60m a season later). If we're not in Europe, the game is up in my view.

In either case there is no scenario where we pick up the player without other clubs competing with us for his signature. £40m for a player also probably means putting him on more wages than Dunk as well.

It's possible, but unlikely.
Massive numbers are being bandied about for young centre backs that are not even homegrown so you can see the figures that Chelsea would want are likely to be huge. However, the player himself has quite a say in how his career progresses so I would say we could be in with a shout. That’s all it is, a shout but from the outside you can see that he is enjoying his football. He’s 20 so plenty of time to make the millions and let’s face it if he comes to us he will still be a very rich young man. Job satisfaction could possibly swing the deal but then I was always a dreamer!
 

Nobby Cybergoat

Members
Jul 19, 2021
4,255
The fee would certainly be high but I'm not sure it would be as high as 50m.

We sold White for 50m but he had a full season in the premier league with us whereas Colwill at best will have half a season. I think(hope...) half a season is not enough of a sample size to convnce teams who haven't worked with/seen him day in day out that they should spend 50m on him. Which is handy as Chelsea need to sell so they won't be in the same position as us when we sold White/Cucurella for 50m plus.

This, combined with the fact that he may well want to leave Chelsea, means to my mind that he could be available for less - maybe 35m plus any add ons. Depending on what other business we do in the summer I could see us stretching to that as his value would double or more over the next couple of seasons so we'd still be able to make a very decent profit on him.

This theory is admittedly based on the idea that Chelsea don't offload a number of other players which would mean they could hold out for more.

We'll see. I'm not saying we will sign him, just that I don't think it's an impossibility.
Also, Ben White had 4 years (I think) left on his contract
 

Nobby Cybergoat

Members
Jul 19, 2021
4,255
This stuff about Caicedo going to Chelsea and Colwill coming here, I think it's bollocks personally, but I do think the relationship between the clubs plays a part in these deals.

I just wonder what Chelsea feel about this, (not the fans they're clueless), but would the club see Moises as the makeweight in this improbable deal? Clearly we wouldn't, but is that the way they see it? Do they see it as a way to get a player in without incurring the normal transfer fee costs they incur? Do they see it as a way of sticking one to Arsenal, who otherwise might be in pole position to buy Moises (i'm sure they see arsenal as more of a medium term rival to us)?

I personally think we wouldn't want to touch something like this, but i'm not so sure about Chelsea.
 

Hotchilidog

Members
Jan 24, 2009
7,878
This stuff about Caicedo going to Chelsea and Colwill coming here, I think it's bollocks personally, but I do think the relationship between the clubs plays a part in these deals.

I just wonder what Chelsea feel about this, (not the fans they're clueless), but would the club see Moises as the makeweight in this improbable deal? Clearly we wouldn't, but is that the way they see it? Do they see it as a way to get a player in without incurring the normal transfer fee costs they incur? Do they see it as a way of sticking one to Arsenal, who otherwise might be in pole position to buy Moises (i'm sure they see arsenal as more of a medium term rival to us)?

I personally think we wouldn't want to touch something like this, but i'm not so sure about Chelsea.
Moises is not going to be the makeweight in any deal. Genuine world class talent.

Given Chelsea's current FFP woes I'd say that they are now out of the running for him. Caceido will be in demand but I have a gut feeling he'll stay this summer.
 

dazzer6666

Members
Mar 27, 2013
46,937
Burgess Hill
I don't think him signing is so far-fetched as it at first appears. He seems to be loving it here, he's only on his original U21 contract at Chelsea and hasn't seemingly indicated whether he's prepared to sign a new one - and most importantly at his age he knows he'll get plenty of PL game time under RdeZ that he might not get at Chelsea (so wouldn't be surprised if 'does a Lamptey'). Nice new contract with us, couple of seasons of impressing even more then he'll get a big money move to anywhere he wants should he choose to do so (and we make a decent profit, as usual). Add in the Chelsea FFP clouds looming with the need to offload players and can see this happening. Would love him to stay.
 

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
70,235
Question is why hasn't he signed a contract extension with Chelsea now it's clear that he is a quality PL player????

Just maybe, he actually wants to come here permanently and play for RDZ.

Now where did I put those straws
 

Nobby Cybergoat

Members
Jul 19, 2021
4,255
Question is why hasn't he signed a contract extension with Chelsea now it's clear that he is a quality PL player????

Just maybe, he actually wants to come here permanently and play for RDZ.

Now where did I put those straws
Well. If he doesn't, they might offer him a better one.
 

Oh_aye

Members
Jul 8, 2022
793
He's coming lads. Don't worry about it. 35m with a 50m buy back clause triggered from 2025/26

You heard it here first.
 

HCxUK

Members
Apr 18, 2014
668
The only way we get Colwill is if he refuses to sign a new deal and pushes to leave Chelsea.

And even then, that would probably alert a load of other teams who could offer him and Chelsea more money than we could. It's incredibly unlikely that we'll sign him permanently.

The sliver of hope is that he could be used a makeweight if Chelsea really push for Caicedo or Mac Allister, but Colwill is definitely more replaceable than either of those players.
 

sheebo

Members
Jul 13, 2003
26,995
Why do people think we have no chance of signing him?

Badiashile is the first choice left sided centre back so I doubt Colwill is going to walk into the starting 11.

Chelsea need to sell players.

Colwill knows the club, the manager and the team and knows he'll be an important part of it if he joins.

I realise it would take a bid that would smash our transfer record but I think it's definitely a possibility.
I have to say -and have been saying it for ages since reading several posts of ‘no chance’ of us signing him - I’m BAFFLED by this stance most are taking. Of course there’s a chance we could sign him. He’s not been amazing for me(very good, but not amazing for a loan player like say Wayne Bridge was at the level we were playing or Steve Sidwell from Arsenal etc) he’s prob not on huge money at Chelsea and we can up that a lot, we don’t know Chelsea’s stance on him, we’re ahead of them in the league and are offering regular first team football at currently one of the top 7 or 8 teams in the country… etc etc - I’m actually taken aback by a lot of the comments. NSC seems to get carried away taking of possible top 4 chances one minute then brick it because a young kid plays for Chelsea the next - odd!
 
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sheebo

Members
Jul 13, 2003
26,995
He's coming lads. Don't worry about it. 35m with a 50m buy back clause triggered from 2025/26

You heard it here first.
And last - no way we’d do a (very rare) buy back clause I think. Takes the control out of our hands again and not how we do things.
 
Jul 26, 2004
2,212
Battersea
I suspect Tony’s algorithms may conclude that paying £35-40m for a home grown 21 year old of his class vs £20m for the Ukrainian 28 year old is actually better business, based on likely sell on fee. So I wouldn’t rule us out based on us not paying that sort of fee. Of course it would still require Chelsea to sell, Levi to want to come, and no one else bidding more. So unlikely, but not impossible
 

Nobby Cybergoat

Members
Jul 19, 2021
4,255
And last - no way we’d do a (very rare) buy back clause I think. Takes the control out of our hands again and not how we do things.
Not historically, but there was near unanimity that taking a big 6 PL player on loan wasn't how we did things, but we did it anyway with Levi and it worked.

If it's a choice between a buy back after 2 years (on similar terms to those the previous poster suggested) and no deal at all, I think we would take it.
 

sheebo

Members
Jul 13, 2003
26,995
Not historically, but there was near unanimity that taking a big 6 PL player on loan wasn't how we did things, but we did it anyway with Levi and it worked.

If it's a choice between a buy back after 2 years (on similar terms to those the previous poster suggested) and no deal at all, I think we would take it.
Always a chance of course and TB would make the right call. Again though, like the ‘swap deals’ people always suggest on forums, these types of things very very rarely actually happen. Brewster was one that springs to mind apparently, but they’re few and far between, especially in England.
 

Weststander

Members
Aug 25, 2011
57,089
Withdean area
I can’t see TB spending £35m to £50m on a defender, it just won’t happen. He’ll stick to the financial model that’s proving so incredibly successful.

(I really rate Colwill btw).
 

jackanada

Members
Jul 19, 2011
2,888
Brighton
Not historically, but there was near unanimity that taking a big 6 PL player on loan wasn't how we did things, but we did it anyway with Levi and it worked.

If it's a choice between a buy back after 2 years (on similar terms to those the previous poster suggested) and no deal at all, I think we would take it.
It's similar to how "we don't do release clauses". Tony would rather not, but because it was the only way to get Mooy to sign we did.
 
Aug 6, 2011
4,263
Bognor Regis
I having a nagging curiosity about what conditions were linked with the loan, something we will probably never find out.

It seemed very strange and out of character for Brighton to accept a loan player from another club. I can't remember us doing it very often in recent seasons.
I'm rather hoping we may have some kind of first refusal if we meet certain conditions.
This is all random speculation and I don't have a clue just like the rest of you.
 

JBizzle

Members
Apr 18, 2010
5,440
Seaford
Moises is not going to be the makeweight in any deal. Genuine world class talent.

Given Chelsea's current FFP woes I'd say that they are now out of the running for him. Caceido will be in demand but I have a gut feeling he'll stay this summer.
I think it would be the other way around, Colwill would be the makeweight in a Caicedo deal. I agree though. With the financial complications they'll face having (likely) missed out on CL qualification and spend £500B in transfers fees, Chelsea will struggle to buy anyone for insane fees over the summer.

If they want Caicedo, they'll need to pay for Caicedo, which is Enzo Fernandez numbers. They may view Colwill as the best way to shave £30-£50m off his fee.

Anyway, I still really don't think we'll sign him. I hope we do because he has a ridiculously high ceiling, but my hunch is that at best he'll be back here on loan next season
 

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