[Football] Last 17

[Blue Valkyrie]

8 points taken in the first 7 games of the 17.


9 more points must be the minimum target from here.

 

[blue-shifted]

8 points taken in the first 7 games of the 17.


9 more points must be the minimum target from here.

38 would almost certainly keep us up. It's hard to see Fulham and Newcastle getting to 39. if it were this high it would likely bring Southampton and Burnley (possibly others) into play

From here, I guess that 35 is the lowest number of points which would give us a better chance than not of staying up. (W0 D6 L4 should do it!) ....

But given our tricky last two games, and the fact that my nervous system doesn't fancy another spring of being utterly shredded, I'd say we need to be averaging a point per game for the next 8, giving us 37, then I reckon we'll be able to go back to the Amex to watch Pep's boys taking us apart, knowing that Fulham and Newcastle have each other on the last day, making us mathematically safe.

 

[Stato]

A Fulham going from 0.7 ppg to about 1.2ppg, plus us performing worse than Burnley and Newcastle is the only thing that can send us down.

Since this post at the beginning of February, Fulham have gone from averaging 0.7ppg to 1.5ppg, we have performed worse than Burnley and the same as Newcastle.

If things continue as they have done over the February and March games, all three of us will end up with about 38 or 39 points. So would Southampton, who have the worst form of everyone except Sheffield United. I thought that their run in might make them safe, but not necessarily.

Looking at the run ins doesn't tell us much. Measured on an average of remaining opponent's current league position and form in the last 6 games, we have the hardest run in, but there's not a lot in it, with Fulham's opponents average position being 10.83, Southampton's 10.6, Newcastle's 9.9 & ours 9. In other words, the average of all remaining opponents is understandably mid table, with ours & Newcastle's being just in the top half for form and league position and Fulham and Southampton's just in the bottom half.

Unless someone has a significant improvement, or drop off in form, it's going to be very close. Having moaned that all our games have only a goal in them, perhaps not being rolled over a few times by the big boys may end up being key.

 

[blue-shifted]

Since this post at the beginning of February, Fulham have gone from averaging 0.7ppg to 1.5ppg, we have performed worse than Burnley and the same as Newcastle.

If things continue as they have done over the February and March games, all three of us will end up with about 38 or 39 points. So would Southampton, who have the worst form of everyone except Sheffield United. I thought that their run in might make them safe, but not necessarily.

Looking at the run ins doesn't tell us much. Measured on an average of remaining opponent's current league position and form in the last 6 games, we have the hardest run in, but there's not a lot in it, with Fulham's opponents average position being 10.83, Southampton's 10.6, Newcastle's 9.9 & ours 9. In other words, the average of all remaining opponents is understandably mid table, with ours & Newcastle's being just in the top half for form and league position and Fulham and Southampton's just in the bottom half.

Unless someone has a significant improvement, or drop off in form, it's going to be very close. Having moaned that all our games have only a goal in them, perhaps not being rolled over a few times by the big boys may end up being key.

The thing about stats, Stato, is that it's pretty easy to choose one that backs up your argument.

So we saw on another thread, the league table if you measure it on the last 6 games has us near the bottom, the one for the last 10 games has us near the top. You've taken the one that has us near the bottom

I'm still happy with the judgement that 35 points would give us a slightly better than not of chance of staying up (not saying it would be pleasant to try it). 38 points is a near certainty. I really don't see Fulham or Newcastle both averaging up to 1.3 or 1.5 for the rest of the season with their fixtures. Though I don't doubt they will find the odd good win.

 

[Stato]

The thing about stats, Stato, is that it's pretty easy to choose one that backs up your argument.

So we saw on another thread, the league table if you measure it on the last 6 games has us near the bottom, the one for the last 10 games has us near the top. You've taken the one that has us near the bottom

I'm still happy with the judgement that 35 points would give us a slightly better than not of chance of staying up (not saying it would be pleasant to try it). 38 points is a near certainty. I really don't see Fulham or Newcastle both averaging up to 1.3 or 1.5 for the rest of the season with their fixtures. Though I don't doubt they will find the odd good win.

You're right that form averages out over longer periods. That's why I combined the last six form with league position when looking at the remaining opponents. Fulham have done very well since your first post, with good results against Liverpool and Everton, but they won't survive unless they can continue to maintain that level. Brighton and Newcastle have never been far away from averaging a point a game all season and, despite recent improvement, Fulham's awful start means that they still have to average 1.33 ppg over the remainder of the season to reach that. They have very little room to stumble and, unlike the rest of us, they haven't yet lost anyone key to the way they are playing to a significant injury. Their backup players are probably the weakest. Should the likes of Anderson, Harrison Reed or Lookman get a knock, they could be done.

 

[kevo]

You're right that form averages out over longer periods. That's why I combined the last six form with league position when looking at the remaining opponents. Fulham have done very well since your first post, with good results against Liverpool and Everton, but they won't survive unless they can continue to maintain that level. Brighton and Newcastle have never been far away from averaging a point a game all season and, despite recent improvement, Fulham's awful start means that they still have to average 1.33 ppg over the remainder of the season to reach that. They have very little room to stumble and, unlike the rest of us, they haven't yet lost anyone key to the way they are playing to a significant injury. Their backup players are probably the weakest. Should the likes of Anderson, Harrison Reed or Lookman get a knock, they could be done.

They have been lucky in that respect compared to ourselves and Newcastle. Lamptey, March and Webster being out has been a big blow considering they were all excellent earlier in the season.

 

[Napper]

on all those prediction things, for me the most likely way to stay up starts with a 3 points v newcastle.

Must win for me

 

[Icy Gull]

Whatever, it’s going to be a rollercoaster. I’d be gutted if it wasn’t, it’s what we do

Who needs mid table mediocrity, go support Palace if you do.

 

[blue-shifted]

Whatever, it’s going to be a rollercoaster. I’d be gutted if it wasn’t, it’s what we do

Who needs mid table mediocrity, go support Palace if you do.

Hmm, I think a non stressful end to the season would do wonders for my all round health. But we've not had one for more than a decade and I don't expect us to start now. Away win coming on Saturday

 

[Stato]

on all those prediction things, for me the most likely way to stay up starts with a 3 points v newcastle.

Must win for me

I think that Newcastle will come for a draw and, unfortunately everyone who has come to the Amex this season with that plan, has gone away with at least that. A win would obviously be very welcome, but I don't think that a draw would be a disaster, especially if Fulham don't get something from Leeds on Friday night. With our goal difference, a draw would put us on the same games played as Burnley & Southampton and one win away from leapfrogging one or other, or both, of them.

 

[Napper]

I think that Newcastle will come for a draw and, unfortunately everyone who has come to the Amex this season with that plan, has gone away with at least that. A win would obviously be very welcome, but I don't think that a draw would be a disaster, especially if Fulham don't get something from Leeds on Friday night. With our goal difference, a draw would put us on the same games played as Burnley & Southampton and one win away from leapfrogging one or other, or both, of them.

I get where you are coming from but saturday for me is our best chance of getting 3 points compared to our remaining games. ( possibly Sheff utd away although may have a new manager bounce by then )

Cant really see anything from

Utd , Chelsea , Arsenal away

and if we are failing at home again v Newcastle , are we really going to get many points from Everton , Leeds , West Ham and City at home.

Wolves away an interesting one as normally do ok there.

It never goes how you think but off the back of the saints game , its essential we back it up saturday. I'd take a draw only if things conspire against us ie man sent off etc

 

[blue-shifted]

I get where you are coming from but saturday for me is our best chance of getting 3 points compared to our remaining games. ( possibly Sheff utd away although may have a new manager bounce by then )

Cant really see anything from

Utd , Chelsea , Arsenal away

and if we are failing at home again v Newcastle , are we really going to get many points from Everton , Leeds , West Ham and City at home.

Wolves away an interesting one as normally do ok there.

It never goes how you think but off the back of the saints game , its essential we back it up saturday. I'd take a draw only if things conspire against us ie man sent off etc

I think we have another big result in us this season