[Albion] KNOOP AND STERN DEPART

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Herr Tubthumper

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Jul 11, 2003
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The Fatherland
Or the club could be looking at it as we are trying to sign someone who helped make Bart the player we spent around £20m on in the first place.
If I understand the stats correctly, they indicate he let in 5 more goals than expected. Had he saved an extra 5 shots from ending up in the net then he’d be performing as expected, any more and he’s better than expected. Fine margings. I like to think a decent coach can improve him to make this handful of extra saves.
 


dazzer6666

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Mar 27, 2013
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If I understand the stats correctly, they indicate he let in 5 more goals than expected. Had he saved an extra 5 shots from ending up in the net then he’d be performing as expected, any more and he’s better than expected. Fine margings. I like to think a decent coach can improve him to make this handful of extra saves.
Well done, nailed it :lolol:
 


Guy Fawkes

The voice of treason
Sep 29, 2007
8,398
You say that but I would bet Flekken faced more shots while putting up a superior save percentage last season.
Pretty meaningless stat without any context

Saving loads of shots that are hit from 40 to 50 yards away is easy and if that is all the opposition can muster due to the defence in front of them, it can make the keeper seem great, but if most of the shots they faced came from 10 to 15 yards away with only the keeper to beat, and the attacking player was under no pressure (or could roll the ball sideways to a supporting team mate to tap in) then it's far more likely to end up in a goal and therefore if relying on stats only, could make the keeper look worse than they are.
 




pigmanovich

Good Old Sausage by the Sea
Mar 16, 2024
3,613
London
Pretty meaningless stat without any context

Saving loads of shots that are hit from 40 to 50 yards away is easy and if that is all the opposition can muster due to the defence in front of them, it can make the keeper seem great, but if most of the shots they faced came from 10 to 15 yards away with only the keeper to beat, and the attacking player was under no pressure (or could roll the ball sideways to a supporting team mate to tap in) then it's far more likely to end up in a goal and therefore if relying on stats only, could make the keeper look worse than they are.
And you’ve personally checked to make sure Flekken mainly faced shots from distance last season? :shrug:Or calculated how many of Bart’s conceded goals played out along the above lines?

In any case, we can ditch the shots faced stat and look instead at xGC, in which case Bart conceded more goals than Flekken (58 to Flekken’s 55) despite recording a smaller xGC (53.1 to Flekken’s 54.8).

Tell me again that Bart had the better season of the two. Now, I fully expect Bart to become a better keeper than Flekken will ever be - but his stats from this campaign just don’t look good and it’s fair to ask questions of the goalkeeping coaches.
 
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nickjhs

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Apr 9, 2017
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Reading through some of the comments and comparing them to the reel of Bart's saves, which the club released yesterday, some of those stops are outrageously good, and to my mind show a bloody big improvement on the previous season. Penalties are, of course, still a problem.
 






Herr Tubthumper

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Pretty meaningless stat without any context

Saving loads of shots that are hit from 40 to 50 yards away is easy and if that is all the opposition can muster due to the defence in front of them, it can make the keeper seem great, but if most of the shots they faced came from 10 to 15 yards away with only the keeper to beat, and the attacking player was under no pressure (or could roll the ball sideways to a supporting team mate to tap in) then it's far more likely to end up in a goal and therefore if relying on stats only, could make the keeper look worse than they are.
I don’t think think this is the case. If the keeper faces all his shots from 40 yards the (let’s say) expected number of goals from all these shots is 1, If he only lets 1 in he’s performed as expected i.e. has a 0 in the final column of the table in page 1 of this thread. Equally if all the shots are easy one on ones with the expected number of goals scored from these easy shots being 100 and he concedes 100 then again he’s performing as expected and has a 0. In both cases the keeper looks the same i.e. performing as expected.

This is an extreme example but it demonstrates how types of shot is weighted.
 




thedonkeycentrehalf

Moved back to wear the gloves (again)
Jul 7, 2003
9,935
People expect Pedro to score every penalty he takes so therefore opposition keepers are not expected to save any penalties. So why is the expectation of Bart different to opposition keepers?
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
18,656
Fiveways
People expect Pedro to score every penalty he takes so therefore opposition keepers are not expected to save any penalties. So why is the expectation of Bart different to opposition keepers?
The metrics don't expect Joao Pedro -- or any other penalty-taker for that matter -- to score every penalty. The XG of a penalty is c0.8.
That doesn't mean that the expected save is 0.2 as a penalty miss also comprises missing the target (a 'non-save miss' if you will), but one thing that Bart is very poor at is on penalties. I wonder how much of this discrepancy is as a result of being so poor at penalties -- it's not just that he doesn't save them, routinely he goes the wrong way.
 




Herr Tubthumper

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The metrics don't expect Joao Pedro -- or any other penalty-taker for that matter -- to score every penalty. The XG of a penalty is c0.8.
That doesn't mean that the expected save is 0.2 as a penalty miss also comprises missing the target (a 'non-save miss' if you will), but one thing that Bart is very poor at is on penalties. I wonder how much of this discrepancy is as a result of being so poor at penalties -- it's not just that he doesn't save them, routinely he goes the wrong way.
If he just saved one single penalty, or a striker missed one, he’d be joint second in the EPL table for 2024/2025. I appreciate it’s a case of if-my-granny-had-balls but it’s a very fine margin. At the elite end of football, and in games where clubs have their chosen taker, and not in cup shoot-outs, it’s so heavily weighted in favour of the taker, I don’t and can’t pay much attention to penalty saves.

TLDR: lot of luck involved

The rest of his stats are pretty poor though.
 
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Stato

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Dec 21, 2011
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I guess that Expected Saves table is for the EPL only, so wouldn't have given Henderson a positive for making saves at a time when he should have been in the shower? ;)
 




Herr Tubthumper

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Jul 11, 2003
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