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Thousands could die in Croydon in swine flu pandemic
9:30am Wednesday 6th May 2009
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By Peter Truman »
Thousands of people could die in Croydon if the swine flu outbreak hit pandemic proportions, according to a report.
The London Resilience report outlined the best and worst-case scenarios for boroughs in London, based on population sizes.
Croydon, with an estimated population of about 338,000, would be the worst hit London borough with up to 4,235 casualties possible.
That would represent the worst case scenario of 50 per cent of people affected, with a fatality rate of 2.5 per cent.
Were the swine flu outbreak to reach pandemic levels, even the best case scenario of a 25 per cent infection rate and 0.4 per cent fatality rate would leave hundreds dead.
The report added that were a pandemic to hit the capital, the number of deaths could reach a possible 94,000.
It said: “The pandemic may occur over multiple waves, of which a second or subsequent wave could be more severe than the first.
"The clinical attack rate of the illness will only become evident as person-to-person transmission develops, but response plans should recognise the possibility of up to 50 per cent in a single wave pandemic.
“Up to 4 per cent of those who are symptomatic may require hospital admission if sufficient capacity were to be available.”
The report advised authorities to plan for all outcomes and to “recognise the requirement for sensitive and sympathetic management of potentially large numbers of deaths”.
The London Resilience team was created in the aftermath of September 11 to review how prepared London would be in the event of an emergency.
Among the team are representatives from the Metropolitan Police, the British Transport Police, London Fire Brigade, London Ambulance Service and Transport for London.
The report was drawn up before the swine flu outbreak reached Britain and was sent to health and council officials last month.
Croydon Primary Care Trust (PCT) said its influenza pandemic committee was meeting regularly to prepare Croydon’s health services for a possible pandemic.
Sara Corben, consultant in public health, added: “I want to emphasise the term ‘pandemic’ describes a virus that spreads quickly rather than how much it affects people’s health.
"So far those infected in the UK have experienced mild symptoms and made a full recovery.”
Swine flu symptoms:
• Fever • Lethargy • Lack of appetite and coughing • Runny nose/sore throat • Nausea/vomiting and diarrhoea
The spread can be contained with simple measures such as washing hands, covering your nose and mouth when sneezing or coughing, using a tissue and disposing of it promptly and cleaning hard surfaces frequently using a normal cleaning product.
Anyone who has recently travelled to the affected areas and is experiencing flu-like illness should stay at home to limit contact with others, and seek medical advice from a local health professional or by calling NHS Direct on 0845 4647 or nhsdirect.nhs.uk
Swine flu facts
• Swine influenza, or flu, is a viral infection of the throat and lungs in pigs. The mortality in pigs is low and recovery usually occurs within seven to 10 days.
• Swine flu viruses have also been detected in wild birds, poultry, horses and humans, but transmission between species is considered a rare event.
• Infection with the swine flu virus has been detected occasionally in humans since the 1950s and shows similar signs to that of human flu. Cases in humans usually occur after direct or close contact with infected pigs.
• Person-to-person transmission has been reported but is believed to be rare.
Thousands could die in Croydon in swine flu pandemic
9:30am Wednesday 6th May 2009
Comments (3) Have your say »
By Peter Truman »
Thousands of people could die in Croydon if the swine flu outbreak hit pandemic proportions, according to a report.
The London Resilience report outlined the best and worst-case scenarios for boroughs in London, based on population sizes.
Croydon, with an estimated population of about 338,000, would be the worst hit London borough with up to 4,235 casualties possible.
That would represent the worst case scenario of 50 per cent of people affected, with a fatality rate of 2.5 per cent.
Were the swine flu outbreak to reach pandemic levels, even the best case scenario of a 25 per cent infection rate and 0.4 per cent fatality rate would leave hundreds dead.
The report added that were a pandemic to hit the capital, the number of deaths could reach a possible 94,000.
It said: “The pandemic may occur over multiple waves, of which a second or subsequent wave could be more severe than the first.
"The clinical attack rate of the illness will only become evident as person-to-person transmission develops, but response plans should recognise the possibility of up to 50 per cent in a single wave pandemic.
“Up to 4 per cent of those who are symptomatic may require hospital admission if sufficient capacity were to be available.”
The report advised authorities to plan for all outcomes and to “recognise the requirement for sensitive and sympathetic management of potentially large numbers of deaths”.
The London Resilience team was created in the aftermath of September 11 to review how prepared London would be in the event of an emergency.
Among the team are representatives from the Metropolitan Police, the British Transport Police, London Fire Brigade, London Ambulance Service and Transport for London.
The report was drawn up before the swine flu outbreak reached Britain and was sent to health and council officials last month.
Croydon Primary Care Trust (PCT) said its influenza pandemic committee was meeting regularly to prepare Croydon’s health services for a possible pandemic.
Sara Corben, consultant in public health, added: “I want to emphasise the term ‘pandemic’ describes a virus that spreads quickly rather than how much it affects people’s health.
"So far those infected in the UK have experienced mild symptoms and made a full recovery.”
Swine flu symptoms:
• Fever • Lethargy • Lack of appetite and coughing • Runny nose/sore throat • Nausea/vomiting and diarrhoea
The spread can be contained with simple measures such as washing hands, covering your nose and mouth when sneezing or coughing, using a tissue and disposing of it promptly and cleaning hard surfaces frequently using a normal cleaning product.
Anyone who has recently travelled to the affected areas and is experiencing flu-like illness should stay at home to limit contact with others, and seek medical advice from a local health professional or by calling NHS Direct on 0845 4647 or nhsdirect.nhs.uk
Swine flu facts
• Swine influenza, or flu, is a viral infection of the throat and lungs in pigs. The mortality in pigs is low and recovery usually occurs within seven to 10 days.
• Swine flu viruses have also been detected in wild birds, poultry, horses and humans, but transmission between species is considered a rare event.
• Infection with the swine flu virus has been detected occasionally in humans since the 1950s and shows similar signs to that of human flu. Cases in humans usually occur after direct or close contact with infected pigs.
• Person-to-person transmission has been reported but is believed to be rare.
