End of season predictor

[Rugrat]

Have dusted this off and set it up for this year

Early days and there will be a lot of twists and turns and predicting much better than 60% correct is difficult. But it's a bit of fun and I'll keep it going all the time we're in with a shout.

We know 1 or 2 will implode and I think Burnley are most likely and also there will be 1 or 2 coming up quickly and I've got Wigan as fairly obvious candidates.

I'll keep it up to date and switch teams in and out as time passes. If anyone wants the fairly rudimentary spreadsheet then PM me, it's easy but time consuming to put together and there may still be mistakes

Oh, I know that the number of points won't be as high across the board but it's tough forecasting upsets of which there will be many e.g BHA v Barnsley!!

 

[shaolinpunk]

How did your predictor compare to the final table last season?

 

[Rugrat]

How did your predictor compare to the final table last season?

Well it's dynamic so with one match to go it was pretty close Actually ballsed up my filing and only have copies since the end of March ... here's the earliest. But I'm fairly sure my table at the beginning of January looked nothing like how it finished.

It's not my ability to predict that's the problem it's the ability of the teams involved to perform as they should!!

 

[seagullwedgee]

Crikey, you're predicting 77 points required to make the Playoffs? On that basis, I predict we have very little chance indeed.

72/74 maybe at a stretch, but 77

 

[Rugrat]

Crikey, you're predicting 77 points required to make the Playoffs? On that basis, I predict we have very little chance indeed.

72/74 maybe at a stretch, but 77

As I said the overall is too high and most teams will drop (give or take) 7-10 points between now and then, but where do you put those in? It's all relative though and for now just assume the relative positions, it does sort itself out

 

[wallyback]

So, a good January and we are up!

 

[Rugrat]

Crikey, you're predicting 77 points required to make the Playoffs? On that basis, I predict we have very little chance indeed.

72/74 maybe at a stretch, but 77

bit nerdy but just went back and looked at last 9 years and 75 is the highest minimum needed to make play offs, but it has been needed 4 times and the average over that time is 73. Last year stands out for being the lowest needed (68) and reflects the likes of Leicester and Boro imploding and the general compressed nature of the league

But I agree, 72 could be enough .... bloody well hope so

 

[Gregory2Smith1]

this season is very hard to predict,with the exception of Leicester

QPR should of been well clear by now,Burnley won't stay the test of time

McClaren at Derby what a good appointment that was play offs at least

another old pro in McCarthy at Ipswich will be there too

Wigan,Blackburn & Midd'boro will all go close

don't fancy Leeds or Reading

and of course us

it's a great league!

 

[Acker79]

bit nerdy but just went back and looked at last 9 years and 75 is the highest minimum needed to make play offs, but it has been needed 4 times and the average over that time is 73. Last year stands out for being the lowest needed (68) and reflects the likes of Leicester and Boro imploding and the general compressed nature of the league

But I agree, 72 could be enough .... bloody well hope so

The team finishing in 6th:
1995/96 - 71
1996/97 - 71
1997/98 - 74
1998/99 - 76
1999/00 - 76
2000/01 - 74
2001/02 - 75
2002/03 - 74
2003/04 - 73
2004/05 - 73
2005/06 - 75
2006/07 - 75
2007/08 - 70
2008/09 - 74
2009/10 - 70
2010/11 - 75
2011/12- 75
2012/13- 68

mean -73.3
median - 75
mode - 74

 

[Rugrat]

this season is very hard to predict,with the exception of Leicester

QPR should of been well clear by now,Burnley won't stay the test of time

McClaren at Derby what a good appointment that was play offs at least

another old pro in McCarthy at Ipswich will be there too

Wigan,Blackburn & Midd'boro will all go close

don't fancy Leeds or Reading

and of course us

it's a great league!

Pretty well agree, but might swap Boro for Leeds

Blackburn spunking more £££ today ... shit or bust by the looks

 

[Rugrat]

Updated from last week, main changes

I've put us up into a play off spot changing a home draw v Leeds to a win ... Leeds from 6th to 8th as a result, and yesterdays drubbing
Might replace them with Blackburn next week
Overall totals still too high but can't predict "upsets"

 

[Rugrat]

Updated, big mover = Reading, didn't see that coming

Keeping Ipswich and Leeds in but will replace if Blackburn and/or Boro do well against tough opposition next week

Still think we are OK, depends on activity in window and how our confidence holds up over next three away games

 

[Rugrat]

Increasingly looking like it's breaking into 2 groups ... any 2 from 4/5 for the automatics (although it's more like 1 from 3/4) and any 2 from 7/8 (these + Blackburn and Boro) for the other 2