[Football] Alternative Premier League table so far

[BBassic]

I've been playing around with some data the last couple of days and have populated an Alternative Premier League table based on the assumption that every shot on target was a goal. Unfortunately for us that model puts us level bottom with Cardiff on points with our blushes being marginally spared by our slightly better goal difference:





Here's our results in full as well, side by side with the actual results. There's some cracking games in there including a 6 - 6 draw with West Ham, a 1 - 7 drubbing at the hands of Wolves and, alas, a 3 - 5 home loss to that lot up the road:



If anyone is interested in how: I nabbed the data from here: http://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php, stuck it in a SQL database and spent most of the time actually working out how to populate a league table. Tricky but I got there in the end. One iteration of it had us scoring about 500 goals so I knew my code was a bit f**ked somewhere along the line.

 

[Stat Brother]

I always preferred alphabetical as the Alternative Table.

 

[timbha]

I do hope you have done this in work’s time

 

[BBassic]

I do hope you have done this in work’s time

I'm actually on a bit of annual leave right now. I sure know how to relax

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I'm actually on a bit of annual leave right now. I sure know how to relax

Can't beat a bit of spreadsheet porn!

 

[Pintos]

great game last weekend

 

[Medwayseagull]

I am sure you enjoyed doing it but what exactly is the point ?

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Very interesting and is a sufficiently large dataset to be worthy of considered analysis.

Has mostly been well done on here though?

During our point gathering period Maty Ryan was exceptionally good at saving shots on target and Glen Murray was exceptionally good at making shots on target be goals...

Is there anything more general than that? Could be but not obvious. Does "shots on target" also include those blocked at source by defenders as Dunk & Duffy do that a lot.

 

[Bozza]

Some cracking games for the neutrals there.

 

[Barham's tash]

I've been playing around with some data the last couple of days and have populated an Alternative Premier League table based on the assumption that every shot on target was a goal. Unfortunately for us that model puts us level bottom with Cardiff on points with our blushes being marginally spared by our slightly better goal difference:

View attachment 104649



Here's our results in full as well, side by side with the actual results. There's some cracking games in there including a 6 - 6 draw with West Ham, a 1 - 7 drubbing at the hands of Wolves and, alas, a 3 - 5 home loss to that lot up the road:

View attachment 104650

If anyone is interested in how: I nabbed the data from here: http://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php, stuck it in a SQL database and spent most of the time actually working out how to populate a league table. Tricky but I got there in the end. One iteration of it had us scoring about 500 goals so I knew my code was a bit f**ked somewhere along the line.

Love stuff like this. People will say statistics can be massaged to show any result you want but I say if it’s an interesting way to view a past event and learn from it then **** them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[worthingseagull]

I think this is very interesting and highlights just how close to the wind we are sailing :-(

 

[BBassic]

I am sure you enjoyed doing it but what exactly is the point ?

I'm a data nerd. It's what I do for a living so largely speaking it is about enjoyment but it's also the satisfaction of being able to answer a question using data and my skillset.

Very interesting and is a sufficiently large dataset to be worthy of considered analysis.

Has mostly been well done on here though?

During our point gathering period Maty Ryan was exceptionally good at saving shots on target and Glen Murray was exceptionally good at making shots on target be goals...

Is there anything more general than that? Could be but not obvious. Does "shots on target" also include those blocked at source by defenders as Dunk & Duffy do that a lot.

Interesting point about the blocked shots. The notes (http://www.football-data.co.uk/notes.txt) don't make mention of blocked shots or whether they're included as 'on target' but I'd wager not. D&D must have blocked a couple of Watford's shots and the data shows they registered 0 on target.

Looking at the data we've gotten around 31% of our shots on target over the season so far. Worst is Cardiff on 27% and the best is United with 47%. Most teams fall into the 31 - 39% range

EDIT: Apologies, we're on 32% (rounded to the nearest whole):



SECOND EDIT:
Out of curiosity I went back and look at shots faced and shots faced on target before and after we last won in the league, against Everton back in December:

Before Everton:
Shots faced: 299
Shots faced on target: 68
% on target: 22

After Everton
Shots faced: 94
Shots faced on target: 27
% on target: 28


Obviously we've played far fewer games since Everton compared to before but to me that 6% suggests we're, for whatever reason, not as solid as we once were. Unable to control the middle? Not getting as many blocks in? Who knows.

 

[FatSuperman]

Hahahah, glad we took 3 points from plucky away. TAKE THAT SMUG ED.

 

[BBassic]

Actually, ignore that shots faced bit. I've knackered the query up a bit.