[Politics] Brexit

Guinness Boy · Sep 12, 2019

Mo Gosfield said:
Try listening to the former Head of the Port of Dover, on the Ian Dale show on LBC, earlier this week.
Its of interest to anyone who fears food/medicine shortages and delays in importing. He makes it clear that there is likely to be more of an issue in exporting but even those are being worked on. Over 150 ' pop up ' stations in the UK and Europe just been created to help drivers check paperwork before reaching ports ( and thats just to cover No Deal / WTO ),
I am no expert on pharmaceuticals but I know a fair amount about food ( work in the industry ) and we are used to volatility in prices and product availability. Its regular. The general public don't notice it so much at supermarket level. Many shop on ' auto pilot ' not monitoring prices that closely. Immediately post June 2016, many imported European products went up 15-20% in price. Some of this was passed on, some absorbed by the industry. Compare the price of butter now to 3-4 years ago or bacon. People have happily paid the hefty price hike on canned drinks under the guise of a ' sugar tax ' ( Funny how the government left the more sensitive milk industry alone, when flavoured milks have the highest sugar content of any drink )
Whatever happens and plenty of planning is in place, the food industry will absorb any short term increases, it always does. There will be few shortages and the general public will notice very little change.

You may work in food, but I work in IT and change. Most projects of even medium size overrun by months. Bringing in the date of a large programme with virtually no notice is impossible. You can pop up what the heck you like, if you don't have the systems to deal with the new situation you'll just have queues at the popups. BBC South East this morning are talking about 2 day queues for a lorry to LEAVE the UK and we're in charge of that process. No reason at all that the French can't make life much worse over there. You haven't dealt with that at all.

If you think people don't notice price changes and lack of availability in shops, you haven't met my wife :facepalm:

And you've not addressed Northern Ireland at all. What's going to happen there? Hard border or back door to the EU? Why are the new IRA increasiing activity in Derry?

And why was paragraph 15 redacted?

Lever · Sep 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
Leaving with EFTA membership, and paying for EEA access until we get a new Super Switzerland trade deal ( 10 years to negotiate ? ) will actually make life better than remaining.

( Not that I am against remaining, and would vote for it again as a leave vote would be corrupted to mean *no deal* ).

Thank you for you informed response. Will our security be better? Will travel be smoother? Will cross-European Scientific projects be easier to set up?

Blue Valkyrie · Sep 12, 2019

Lever said:
Thank you for you informed response. Will our security be better? Will travel be smoother? Will cross-European Scientific projects be easier to set up?

Those are deal details - I gave a broadbrush outline. We'd have to ensure those issues are ironed out in a transition period. No one could want security to be worse, and travel and science collaboration can surely be sorted out to our satisfaction.

Thunder Bolt · Sep 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
Leaving with EFTA membership, and paying for EEA access until we get a new Super Switzerland trade deal ( 10 years to negotiate ? ) will actually make life better than remaining.

( Not that I am against remaining, and would vote for it again as a leave vote would be corrupted to mean *no deal* ).

This would fulfil the referendum promise and make life so much simpler. I wonder why the politicians aren't suggesting it?
Johnson isn't negotiating, tried to close down Parliament so nobody could scrutinis what he's doing (under instructions from an unelected bureaucrat) and aiming for no deal. We are supposed to believe it's for our own good?

nicko31 · Sep 12, 2019

10th April 2019

“Please don't waste this time"

Parliamentary recess / prorogue between 10th April - 14th October = 100 days.......

Blue Valkyrie · Sep 12, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
This would fulfil the referendum promise and make life so much simpler. I wonder why the politicians aren't suggesting it?
Johnson isn't negotiating, tried to close down Parliament so nobody could scrutinis what he's doing (under instructions from an unelected bureaucrat) and aiming for no deal. We are supposed to believe it's for our own good?

Johnson is charging towards *no deal* for reasons unclear ( although we can guess there is some advantage in it for him ). It will only be good for a very small number of people.

hans kraay fan club · Sep 12, 2019

Sussex Nomad said:
No, but we still don't know, this really is a fear factor built in by non democrats. When we leave, If our economy does take a dive I too will hold my hands up.

I'm sure that will be an enormous comfort to all of those adversely affected.

Well done, you.

ManOfSussex · Sep 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
It seems the Yellowhammer documents have quite a lot of positive spin and are nowhere near worst case.

We really need the Black Swan worst case documents released so we can properly prepare, even at this late stage.

I did read a little while back that Gove, Johnson and Cummings apparently agreed that if Black Swan was released it was the end of Brexit.

Thunder Bolt · Sep 12, 2019

Mo Gosfield said:
Try listening to the former Head of the Port of Dover, on the Ian Dale show on LBC, earlier this week.
Its of interest to anyone who fears food/medicine shortages and delays in importing. He makes it clear that there is likely to be more of an issue in exporting but even those are being worked on. Over 150 ' pop up ' stations in the UK and Europe just been created to help drivers check paperwork before reaching ports ( and thats just to cover No Deal / WTO ),
I am no expert on pharmaceuticals but I know a fair amount about food ( work in the industry ) and we are used to volatility in prices and product availability. Its regular. The general public don't notice it so much at supermarket level. Many shop on ' auto pilot ' not monitoring prices that closely. Immediately post June 2016, many imported European products went up 15-20% in price. Some of this was passed on, some absorbed by the industry. Compare the price of butter now to 3-4 years ago or bacon. People have happily paid the hefty price hike on canned drinks under the guise of a ' sugar tax ' ( Funny how the government left the more sensitive milk industry alone, when flavoured milks have the highest sugar content of any drink )
Whatever happens and plenty of planning is in place, the food industry will absorb any short term increases, it always does. There will be few shortages and the general public will notice very little change.

I watch food prices every week. I have to, living on a limited income. I've changed from Sainsbury's to Morrison's to Lidls to keep my budget within the limit.
Refrigerated lorries have to keep their engines running all the time which is why they can only use the ferry. It's not just refrigerated food but medicines too. Any hold ups and the cargo is useless.

Lever · Sep 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
Those are deal details - I gave a broadbrush outline. We'd have to ensure those issues are ironed out in a transition period. No one could want security to be worse, and travel and science collaboration can surely be sorted out to our satisfaction.

Thank you again. I appreciate it.
So my understanding now is that it will be a matter of time (10 years?), trust (because no one wants particular negative outcomes) and belief (because in time we should be able to sort matters out to our satisfaction).

pb21 · Sep 12, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Good grief, why do remainers have to keep posting this lie, fallacy, conspiracy theory ? So, YET AGAIN, here's the facts. EVERY condition under the EU Anti Tax Avoidance Directive that comes in to force next year is ALREADY in UK law. Boris, JRM and their cronies can't avoid it because it's ALREADY part of UK law. It really is very simple yet remainers can't seem to grasp this ….. and they call leavers thickos

Strangely every time this has been pointed out the remainer that posted the lie has failed to respond - possibly knowing how stupid they look.

There are two elements that are not in UK law …. yet …. and these do not come into effect in the EU until June 2022 - so nearly three years away. So hardly a reason to push through a quick Brexit.

If we leave with no deal on 31st October could the government repeal this legislation (or whatever the correct terminology is), prior to the law actually having any effect?

I am not saying I necessarily agree with this theory BTW, but just because we are on course for this Directive to be implemented doesn't mean that it has to be if we leave with no deal.

hans kraay fan club · Sep 12, 2019

At work, we import goods on a daily basis. Every week, we receive deliveries from EU countries, from the US, and from Switzerland.

(Obviously we import less these days, as the state of the Pound against the Euro and the dollar means we are not selling as much as we should be).

Even though we are well set up, and know exactly how to make this all work as smoothly as it can (our head office is IN Switzerland) the non EU imports are a constant ball-ache. I don't think (a lot of) people understand how much easier the internal EU stuff is, in comparison. Every week we have an issue somewhere, with a package held at customs, or an unexplained delay.

Projecting that situation to all the (ex)EU imports, is going to affect every business. Its going to be a shambles.

Blue Valkyrie · Sep 12, 2019

Lever said:
Thank you again. I appreciate it.
So my understanding now is that it will be a matter of time (10 years?), trust (because no one wants particular negative outcomes) and belief (because in time we should be able to sort matters out to our satisfaction).

A Brexit done well is a very positive future ( my belief, I suppose ).

Unfortunately the current crop of politicians have done it very, very badly - and therefore trust is a good point. Which is why I'd vote remain again if we have another go.

Westdene Seagull · Sep 12, 2019

pb21 said:
If we leave with no deal on 31st October could the government repeal this legislation (or whatever the correct terminology is), prior to the law actually having any effect?

I am not saying I necessarily agree with this theory BTW, but just because we are on course for this Directive to be implemented doesn't mean that it has to be if we leave with no deal.

After we've left any government can repeal any law they like just as long as they can get it through the Commons. But just to be clear the UK had the things proposed in the EU Directive in law even before the EU had the Directive drawn up - I'm guessing the EU Directive is partly based on what the UK had already decided to implement. So yes, Johnson and co could revoke it if we left but given it's already in place I doubt it has any bearing on the timescales for getting out of the EU.

Trufflehound · Sep 12, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Good grief, why do remainers have to keep posting this lie, fallacy, conspiracy theory ? So, YET AGAIN, here's the facts. EVERY condition under the EU Anti Tax Avoidance Directive that comes in to force next year is ALREADY in UK law. Boris, JRM and their cronies can't avoid it because it's ALREADY part of UK law. It really is very simple yet remainers can't seem to grasp this ….. and they call leavers thickos

Why do you keep repeating this same lie? It isn't in law yet. The draft legislation was published in June and is currently at the consultation phase, which is due to be completed on October 11. It won't come into force until July 2020.

https://www.ey.com/gl/en/services/t...-draft-proposal-on-mandatory-disclosure-rules

Of course, if the UK crashes out before then, then the government won't have to apply it. Which is what a lot of those at the top with things to hide want, including many posh Tory twats in government and some of those rabidly anti-EU press barons that control the headines in the Daily Mail, Sun etc.

Garry Nelson's teacher · Sep 12, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Liz Truss is even worse.

There would be a very good competition to 'find the worst of a bad bunch' in the Cabinet. Meanwhile on the backbenches, Nigel Evans - who. like dogshit, gets everywhere - is doing his level best to replace Mark Francois as the Tory I'd most like to see come into full facial contact with a custard pie.

Thunder Bolt · Sep 12, 2019

Trufflehound said:
Why do you keep repeating this same lie? It isn't in law yet. The draft legislation was published in June and is currently at the consultation phase, which is due to be completed on October 11. It won't come into force until July 2020.

https://www.ey.com/gl/en/services/t...-draft-proposal-on-mandatory-disclosure-rules

Of course, if the UK crashes out before then, then the government won't have to apply it. Which is what a lot of those at the top with things to hide want, including many posh Tory twats in government and some of those rabidly anti-EU press barons that control the headines in the Daily Mail, Sun etc.

Thank you. I hadn't got the information I wanted to counter WS.

vegster · Sep 12, 2019

Mo Gosfield said:
Try listening to the former Head of the Port of Dover, on the Ian Dale show on LBC, earlier this week.
Its of interest to anyone who fears food/medicine shortages and delays in importing. He makes it clear that there is likely to be more of an issue in exporting but even those are being worked on. Over 150 ' pop up ' stations in the UK and Europe just been created to help drivers check paperwork before reaching ports ( and thats just to cover No Deal / WTO ),
I am no expert on pharmaceuticals but I know a fair amount about food ( work in the industry ) and we are used to volatility in prices and product availability. Its regular. The general public don't notice it so much at supermarket level. Many shop on ' auto pilot ' not monitoring prices that closely. Immediately post June 2016, many imported European products went up 15-20% in price. Some of this was passed on, some absorbed by the industry. Compare the price of butter now to 3-4 years ago or bacon. People have happily paid the hefty price hike on canned drinks under the guise of a ' sugar tax ' ( Funny how the government left the more sensitive milk industry alone, when flavoured milks have the highest sugar content of any drink )
Whatever happens and plenty of planning is in place, the food industry will absorb any short term increases, it always does. There will be few shortages and the general public will notice very little change.

Sadly there will be shortages, these will be brought about by the Great British Public responding to potential and actual minor shortages as usual by panic buying and clearing the shelves, as it always does, ergo, creating more shortages !

As for Dover, pals of mine had a family holiday in France at the end of August, they said they were held up on the outward and the return journey due to Border officials starting to implement more thorough checks on vehicles and passengers. The delays meant that instead of the usual fairly seamless RO/RO journey there and back they nearly missed their scheduled ferry departures both ways.

ManOfSussex · Sep 12, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
At work, we import goods on a daily basis. Every week, we receive deliveries from EU countries, from the US, and from Switzerland.

(Obviously we import less these days, as the state of the Pound against the Euro and the dollar means we are not selling as much as we should be).

Even though we are well set up, and know exactly how to make this all work as smoothly as it can (our head office is IN Switzerland) the non EU imports are a constant ball-ache. I don't think (a lot of) people understand how much easier the internal EU stuff is, in comparison. Every week we have an issue somewhere, with a package held at customs, or an unexplained delay.

Projecting that situation to all the (ex)EU imports, is going to affect every business. Its going to be a shambles.

Prior to Maastricht you factored in 3 days for anything going in or out of Europe due to customs and delays and the volumes were nowhere near what they are now. Its going to be an omnishambles.

Westdene Seagull · Sep 12, 2019

Trufflehound said:
Why do you keep repeating this same lie? It isn't in law yet. The draft legislation was published in June and is currently at the consultation phase, which is due to be completed on October 11. It won't come into force until July 2020.

https://www.ey.com/gl/en/services/t...-draft-proposal-on-mandatory-disclosure-rules

Of course, if the UK crashes out before then, then the government won't have to apply it. Which is what a lot of those at the top with things to hide want, including many posh Tory twats in government and some of those rabidly anti-EU press barons that control the headines in the Daily Mail, Sun etc.

And yet the Finance Bill 2019 that introduced all of these new regulations got Royal Assent in February 2019.

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[Politics] Brexit

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