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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Aug 25, 2011
63,371
Withdean area
Steady as you go....

View attachment 103876

There is also reasonable model support as well... the tricky bit is whether the sliding low middle of next week transfers cleanly into France. Most runs do this, and this opens the flood gates for a cold Easterly. When that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean we get no cold, as we get a second go a couple of days later.

View attachment 103877

View attachment 103878

The BBC forecast this morning, predicted that mild Atlantic air won’t reach Britain next week, instead the second and even colder blast of Polar air will take hold.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
The BBC forecast this morning, predicted that mild Atlantic air won’t reach Britain next week, instead the second and even colder blast of Polar air will take hold.

Which is a very good sign. BBC now use the ECM as their data source (no longer the Met Office), and they get to see a LOT more data than we do. So, if they're bullish, then that's a good indicator of the data they are seeing.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing
It is 8 c at 10 am here. BBRR !!!! Seriously though, is this the much colder weather they said would happen from yesterday ?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
The latest GFS Op run supports the cold outlook....

Part 1

anim_iyg3.gif

Part 2

anim_poe2.gif
 








Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
whats sort of cold we looking at uring the day ? above say 3c ?

My view is the from today to about Monday we're looking at maximum temps locally in the 5-6C range, with overnight frost as temps dip to or just below freezing.

Early Tuesday will see the low arrive, which look like it WILL give us snow as it passed through, with rain to start. Tuesday looks cold with snow possible during the day (could be sleety on the coasts).

Tuesday onwards will probably see temperature slowly dropping day by day, and night as the colder air starts to feed in, so 3C max probably, but below zero dusk til dawn, and snow showers likely.

One thing I will say, for the West Brom game, wrap up warm. No light summer jackets for that one [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]

After that there's less agreement - 3 options:

1. High pressure builds down from the North, giving severe frosts in already cold air
2. We get further cold air from the East or NE
3. We get a mild breakdown
 










Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
The latest GFS ensemble has seen a new 'high' for snow rows for Brighton - 139.

Plus late on the 22nd (Tuesday) we're now getting 22 out of 23 showing snow falling.

Brighton Snow 16 ed.png
 
















Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,920
Uckfield
It is 8 c at 10 am here. BBRR !!!! Seriously though, is this the much colder weather they said would happen from yesterday ?

Who said it would happen from yesterday? The proper cold has always been for after the 21st Jan, for an initial attempt at snow, and then another shot at it later Jan into Feb.

You're also located in one of the worst possible places to get the real cold / snow - right on the south coast. Of course you're not going to see the best of the cold weather. Doesn't mean the rest of us who live in better locations are also going to miss out. And even for you, you wouldn't have needed to travel far in last year's event to experience some multi-inch deep lying snow.
 






Frankie

Put him in the curry
May 23, 2016
4,100
Mid west Wales
A flumpage in Sussex would be considered a light dusting anywhere else in the galaxy
 


casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
Well we've had some stonking model runs over the last 24 hours, about time they flipped back to wet, windy weather this evening and see everyone explode with rage. Until tomorrows runs show cold back on the menu! It's literally like that at the moment. Although knowing what a LP does around the Eastern Seaboard in the US in the next 24 hours will help confirm what's going to happen for us later on!
 



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