[Politics] Brexit

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
There's no point in telling people about the *no deal* on-coming storm anymore. It'll happen for sure now. Troops on the streets, Civil Contingencies Act. The end of democracy for a while.

Just buy up as much tinned food, pasta, and fuel as you can now. I hope our children will come out the other side and fix this country for their descendents.

We've been conned. Sadly it is easier to fool someone than to convince someone they have been fooled.

Also, if you only ever read one more book, please read Alternative War by James Patrick. Putin has defeated us, and we never even knew he'd started the war.

https://twitter.com/J_amesp/status/1089452174520844288?s=19

The key measure that there is a crisis in this country will be when there are thousands of people living in shanty style conditions in woodlands near the coast of southern England hiding on axles, freight in lorries bound for Europe or taking their chance crossing the channel on an inflatable unicorn.

Till that point things are fine.

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

BBassic said:
I think I agree with you, broadly speaking. Class is something I've struggled with for a while. I was definitely born into a working class family yet now, if we're going by things such as salary and home ownership, I'm distinctly middle class. Yet I still very much identify as a working class boy. Other people I've spoken to, friends from my childhood feel much the same way. It's a strange one.

I did read a really interesting book that you may also enjoy: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Social-Class-Century-Pelican-Books/dp/0241004225

Written in collaboration with the team behind the Great British Class Survey.

I don’t think it’s strange, that is how it is.

There are plenty of examples of fallen aristocrats or the wealthy falling on hard times, I don’t think that even if David Cameron became penniless and ended up as a till jockey in Tescos that he could then describe himself as working class.

You are born into your class.

Hampster Gull · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
You are born into your class.

You are so 1970s in so many ways. Just an observation.

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
Well, if you're not confusing the two, then your first statement is a mistake as regardless of what you were born into and rooted in, it wouldn't stop you from being AB.

That’s a fair point, but working class kids who move up the social grade scale (ie from E to A) does not not preclude them from saying they are working class while joining the influential ruling class referred to in the DT analysis. I know a CEO of a global business who is a multi millionaire voted remain and says he’s proudly working class. His kids aren’t they went to private schools, they aren’t working class.

That seems logical to me, I’m not saying my rules are the rules.........I’m not sure if there are rules, I accept class identification is in the eye of the beholder even if I disagree with it.

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
Both you and Margaret Thatcher remained working class then. I see.

Wasn’t MT the child of a merchant trader?

If she was working class I don’t have a problem with that per se. Why would I.......that’s is not my beef with her.

ManOfSussex · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Wasn’t MT the child of a merchant trader?

If she was working class I don’t have a problem with that per se. Why would I.......that’s is not my beef with her.

She was, but one can't possibly call Margaret Thatcher working class, anymore than one could call you it.

For example, my Mother was born at home in poverty during the second world war. My Father grew up during the second war above his Aunts shop and didn't see his Father until 1945. My paternal Grandmother grew up in a village in Cumbria that didn't have electricity or running water and hunger was a everyday occurrence as she grew up there. Another Aunt of my Father fell pregnant to a US GI and spent the summer of 1944 in the aforementioned Cumbrian village before the baby was adopted out - I can't say any of them finished up still being working class.

In my opinion one true test to your working class prowess fergus is the legacy of the symptomatic ills of working classness on you today, namely the legacy of poverty and the the associated results of it on a person such as alcohol/substance use and misuse, alcohol/substance related violence and run ins with the police and interactions with those who come from a deprived background. Ending up in A&E after a night out in a post industrial or coastal town with high levels of unemployment and drug use, for example.

A good test of my theory would be this - If I was to ask you to raise both your hands and show on your left hand, in terms of fingers, how many times you've been arrested and then on your right hand how many buy-to-let properties you own and private pensions you have, you'd have to bring your redundant left hand over to your right to help out the count.

You and Margaret Thatcher are both middle class, so just rejoice at that news and congratulate the manager of Waitrose for selling organic, fair trade Rooibos, or whatever else middle class people like you buy in their shops, alongside picking up your next copy of 'Middle Class Buy-to-let Mortgage Monthly' magazine next time you're in there.

Have a nice day. Rejoice!

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

WATFORD zero said:
I just think it is interesting that a hard Brexit and the ensuing volatility in the financial markets would be a wonderful opportunity for people in the City to make some very big money (as they did in the run up to 2008), safe in the knowledge that, when it all goes wrong, the country will bail them out and the poor will pick up the bill through austerity.

Still, you would hope that the regulators would show a little more competence this time round, wouldn't you.

Probably just a hobby though

Yes I would, I am very much for regulating markets, from the financial markets to the labour market.

Free markets are the epitome of capitalist anarchy, and why in 2008 some of the wounds inflicted on the U.K. were self inflicted not caused by just the US. Bradford and Bingley had a mortgage book that was based on a majority of self certifications, Northern Rock were pimping a 125% mortgage, RBS bought ABN AMRO for a ridiculous amount when it was an economic basket case.

These companies were chock a block with capitalists playing a massive game of poker bluffing away to politicians who saw the tax revenues and booming economies who believed them. The politicians were so inthralled they then said stupid stuff like “we’ve abolished boom and bust”. Then when the shit hit the fan the poor picked up the bill with years of austerity

10 years on the same types of people are telling us we’re better off in the EU than out, I didn’t believe them in 2008 and I don’t believe them now.

A1X · Jan 27, 2019

[TWEET]1089296199079944193[/TWEET]

A1X · Jan 27, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
If only the Guardianista, Hampstead (with minority outposts in Sussex) dinner party set could remove their heads from their posteriors they may have been more aware of the feelings amongst a majority of the UK public. Unfortunately as this thread shows they have learnt F all.

Unfortunately it isn't just one side which has lived life this way. The number of people who treat the front pages of the tabloids as gospel truth and spend their lives living in perpetual fear of immigrants despite living in communities which are 97% white British are just as bad.

pb21 · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Yes I would, I am very much for regulating markets, from the financial markets to the labour market.

Free markets are the epitome of capitalist anarchy, and why in 2008 some of the wounds inflicted on the U.K. were self inflicted not caused by just the US. Bradford and Bingley had a mortgage book that was based on a majority of self certifications, Northern Rock were pimping a 125% mortgage, RBS bought ABN AMRO for a ridiculous amount when it was an economic basket case.

These companies were chock a block with capitalists playing a massive game of poker bluffing away to politicians who saw the tax revenues and booming economies who believed them. The politicians were so inthralled they then said stupid stuff like “we’ve abolished boom and bust”. Then when the shit hit the fan the poor picked up the bill with years of austerity

10 years on the same types of people are telling us we’re better off in the EU than out, I didn’t believe them in 2008 and I don’t believe them now.

I do find it genuinely interesting how the hard left are in favour of Brexit so that the markets can be increasingly regulated and how the hard right are in favour of Brexit so that the markets can be increasingly de-regulated.

One group will end up disappointed and I have a very strong idea which; it may be a case of better the devil you know.

Lincoln Imp · Jan 27, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
If only the Guardianista, Hampstead (with minority outposts in Sussex) dinner party set could remove their heads from their posteriors they may have been more aware of the feelings amongst a majority of the UK public. Unfortunately as this thread shows they have learnt F all.

Ah. The views of ordinary people. I once related the thoughts of a friend of ours in his 70s, who had no axe to grind and had spent his life living in one Yorkshire town, on why his fellow townspeople had felt driven to vote Leave in such numbers. It was an informed snapshot on his part. I thought it was interesting. You flew back, with all your customary aggression, saying that I (and presumably he) was talking total **** because we hadn't spoken to every voter in Barnsley.

But there you go.

A quick question though. Did you correctly forecast the result of the referendum? I assume you did, given your awareness of the feelings amongst a majority of the UK public.

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

pb21 said:
I do find it genuinely interesting how the hard left are in favour of Brexit so that the markets can be increasingly regulated and how the hard right are in favour of Brexit so that the markets can be increasingly de-regulated.

One group will end up disappointed and I have a very strong idea which; it may be a case of better the devil you know.

Sure, you only need to look at France to get that insight. Macron’s Thatcherite attack on the French labour market protections and deregulation of their economic system is not going as well as he hoped.

The gilet jaunes maybe a umbrella for multiple concerns but this is building up to be his miners strike moment.

Economically speaking he is and always was hard right........as you would expect from an ex Banker from Rothschilds, not that anyone in the media would report it that way, he was typically referred to centre left as I recall.

Laughable.

Garry Nelson's teacher · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Garry Nelson's teacher said:

What is more simple to understand is that there are deep structural problems that persist with the euro, fiscal integration is required to make it crisis proof. I would agree their are difficulties with that at the moment politically, but that does not mean the objective of the EU is not full fiscal integration.

If it’s not then the EU and the economists/politicians signing up to it are well, profoundly stupid and we must leave the EU at the earliest opportunity.

But they are not stupid, the euro was a mechanism in itself to force full fiscal union, in order to deliver the federal state you say there is no realistic chance of.

So, either the EU is stupid (which we know they are not as referenced above) or those that say a federal EU is not going to happen are?

Simples.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure I follow your logic here as it's based on the assumption that 'the objective of the EU is full fiscal integration'. Realistically, which of the 27 remaining countries (this is where the power is) want this and could this ever ('realistically') get through the Council under QMV? I sometimes think that leavers are more keen than even the EU Commissioners on visions of a so-called Federal Europe as it feeds their own version of the project fear agenda. Can't we just be a bit more pragmatic and play the odds? And the odds of full monetary and fiscal integration?? (We can have a side bet on it if you fancy? I'm working on the near certainty that neither of us would be around to direct our winnings...…….)

Garry Nelson's teacher · Jan 27, 2019

PS 'Blocking minority'
A blocking minority is the number of votes needed on the EU Council of Ministers to block a decision requiring to be made by qualified majority voting. Prior to November 2014 in the EU 28 a blocking minority required 93 votes of the 352 votes in the Council. A qualified majority required 260 of 352 votes.
The Lisbon Treaty introduced a radical reform regarding voting in the Council with the so-called “double majority” from 1 November 2014. First, an approval requires 55% of the member states, which meant 15 of the then 28 members, and second,that 55% of the states must also represent 65% of the total EU population.
A blocking minority can thus be established by little more than 45% of the member states or by countries representing at least 35% of the member states as long as there is a minimum of four states.
For proposals not coming from the Commission or the Foreign Minister there must be 72% of member states behind them - which means a blocking minority of a little more than 28% of member states.
This new voting system gives the biggest member states much stronger voting power in the Council of Ministers than the previous system.

Mtoto · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Sure, you only need to look at France to get that insight. Macron’s Thatcherite attack on the French labour market protections and deregulation of their economic system is not going as well as he hoped.

The gilet jaunes maybe a umbrella for multiple concerns but this is building up to be his miners strike moment.

Economically speaking he is and always was hard right........as you would expect from an ex Banker from Rothschilds, not that anyone in the media would report it that way, he was typically referred to centre left as I recall.

Laughable.

Economically speaking, your outlook seems to be that everyone who does not share your own, extreme left-wing view of the world is "hard right", including a significant chunk of the Labour Party, what little remains of an organised centre and the entirety of the Tories, from the moderates to the swivel-eyed fringe.

You're entitled to your us-and-them, class warrior outlook, but all you're really doing is enabling your fellow-travellers on what is the actual extreme right of British politics - the ultra-nationalists, the deregulators and the disaster capitalists who hope and expect to make a killing out of chaos. And who do you think will pay for that? The laughter you can hear is Redwood, JRM and the banker chums, and they're laughing at you for voting for it.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 27, 2019

Lincoln Imp said:
Ah. The views of ordinary people. I once related the thoughts of a friend of ours in his 70s, who had no axe to grind and had spent his life living in one Yorkshire town, on why his fellow townspeople had felt driven to vote Leave in such numbers. It was an informed snapshot on his part. I thought it was interesting. You flew back, with all your customary aggression, saying that I (and presumably he) was talking total **** because we hadn't spoken to every voter in Barnsley.

But there you go.

A quick question though. Did you correctly forecast the result of the referendum? I assume you did, given your awareness of the feelings amongst a majority of the UK public.

Ah yes. It should have come as no surprise that you happened to have a friend who supposedly knew why an entire town voted the way they did that just happened to align with your pov. Aggression? That doesn't sound like me at all as anyone who knows me will tell you ..I'm an absolute delight. Also don't ever remember saying you were talking ****, sounds far to blunt for me and you rarely talk ****.

No, I thought too many people who have grave misgivings about the direction this country is going would be swayed by Project Fear or prioritise personal financial self-interest over the good of the nation.

ManOfSussex · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Northern Rock were pimping a 125% mortgage

It wasn't even their own reserves they were pimping was it. They were borrowing it by the bucket load! All presided over by your fellow Brexit backing, like minded chairman Viscount 'Call me Matt' Ridley. Viscount 'Call me Matt' Ridley is brother in-law to another of your fellow, like minded Brexit backers Owen Paterson, you know. I bet Christmas is a right laugh in the Ridley/Paterson stately home household! The Singaporean model, small state, free trade like we did in the good old days of 1845-1930's - they want the lot those two.

Fortunately Viscount 'Call me Matt' Ridley hasn't written a column in The Times of London for a while now, so I haven't had to read the inner workings of his freakoid mind for a long time. I often wonder if I were to step over a homeless person in the doorway and walk into any branch of WHSmith PLC, in any town or city in our United Kingdom, and pick up the latest edition of the Oxford English Dictionary, and look under the letter 'F' for the word 'FREAKOID' what the definition would be? A photo of Viscount 'Call me Matt' Ridley or Owen Paterson? Or maybe both? Perhaps stood there together in wax jackets and red trousers, manically grinning after a pheasant shoot or something? They really do take freakoidory to a whole new level.

It's a very disturbing thought thinking about Viscount 'Call me Matt' Ridley and Owen Paterson though on so many levels. Don't have nightmares yourself. Good night.

Weststander · Jan 27, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Sure, you only need to look at France to get that insight. Macron’s Thatcherite attack on the French labour market protections and deregulation of their economic system is not going as well as he hoped.

The gilet jaunes maybe a umbrella for multiple concerns but this is building up to be his miners strike moment.

Economically speaking he is and always was hard right........as you would expect from an ex Banker from Rothschilds, not that anyone in the media would report it that way, he was typically referred to centre left as I recall.

Laughable.

Accurate summary.

Some left wing NSC posters seized on Macron’s election, as being everything the UK should have in a leader to unify and give “social justice”.

They failed to check his bio.

His electioneering strategy was to lie that he was unifying force in the centre. In reality he’s a lifelong huge capitalist, now trying to dismantle a hundred years worth of very strong employment codes in favour of employees. Hence the riots and deaths.

cunning fergus · Jan 27, 2019

Garry Nelson's teacher said:
PS 'Blocking minority'
A blocking minority is the number of votes needed on the EU Council of Ministers to block a decision requiring to be made by qualified majority voting. Prior to November 2014 in the EU 28 a blocking minority required 93 votes of the 352 votes in the Council. A qualified majority required 260 of 352 votes.
The Lisbon Treaty introduced a radical reform regarding voting in the Council with the so-called “double majority” from 1 November 2014. First, an approval requires 55% of the member states, which meant 15 of the then 28 members, and second,that 55% of the states must also represent 65% of the total EU population.
A blocking minority can thus be established by little more than 45% of the member states or by countries representing at least 35% of the member states as long as there is a minimum of four states.
For proposals not coming from the Commission or the Foreign Minister there must be 72% of member states behind them - which means a blocking minority of a little more than 28% of member states.
This new voting system gives the biggest member states much stronger voting power in the Council of Ministers than the previous system.

All very well, but that doesn’t change the realities of a) to protect the euro and EZ countries full fiscal integration is required and b) desperate times drive desperate measures.

With regard to a) I am not saying that federalisation is just around the corner, the political difficulties at play in France and Germany currently would prevent that. What I am saying though is federalisation is an objective of the EU, and fiscal integration effectively delivers that for the EZ. The EU is a political and economic union, the euro is the manifestation of that reality, anyone suggesting the euro can survive without full fiscal integration of the EZ countries is being dishonest.

This brings us to b) which is what happens in a crisis; and we have already seen what happens, the rules are broken. Currently some EZ countries already violate the fiscal rules of the euro, the ECB is not controlling the EZ countries effectively. This is a problem. In a crisis everything is on the table........take QE, not allowed under Euro rules or a mechanism that can be deployed by the ECB. If you don’t believe me, ask the Germans......and there’s been €2.6 turn of it!

https://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/eurozone-and-finance/german-constitutional-court/

So, you can cut and paste all of the rules you like, those of us with any sense of understanding how the EU works will know when the chips are down the rules are not worth a light.

ManOfSussex · Jan 27, 2019

JC Footy Genius said:
Ah yes. It should have come as no surprise that you happened to have a friend who supposedly knew why an entire town voted the way they did that just happened to align with your pov.

I know that as well as being put on someones ignore list, people providing personal anecdotes to you, such as [MENTION=12947]Lincoln Imp[/MENTION] has done here, causes you great distress as you can't provide any of your own as that would potentially compromise your privacy, discretion and anonymity that you value greatly. I understand this entirely. I'm sure if you point that out to him and ask nicely he'll stop doing it to you.

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