[News] Alastair Campbell expelled.

Pavilionaire · May 30, 2019

London Irish said:
And **** everyone who voted Leave right? Big election winner that

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Either there will be a second referendum and we will Remain or we will leave and it will be a disaster. At that point the country wil need a political party who will get us out of this mess, and it cannot be the Tories because they created it.

Harry Wilson's tackle · May 30, 2019

Jackthelad said:
Face it as you got older you got more right-wing it's very common but Corbyn or no Corbyn you sound much more suited to the Tories or Brexit Party.

That's unfair.

drew · May 30, 2019

portslade seagull said:
Yes but of those who bothered to vote 52% voted out. Its irrelevant that x amount couldn't be arsed and probably never ever vote in any election whatever it is and then moan when things go wrong. Maybe it should be mandatory that all eligible citizens have to vote.

It's relevant when people bang on about 52% of the 'country' voted to leave. By all means say 52% of the vote was to leave but by saying the former it is trying to suggest that there was a clear majority of people living on this island that don't want to be part of the EU and that clearly is not demonstrable based on the vote.

drew · May 30, 2019

Chicken Run said:
[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] probably needs to ban political threads imo as every other thread on this board seems to be blue on blue name calling and nastiness ( I’m guilty too)!

Would become a pretty dull forum!!!!

ATFC Seagull · May 31, 2019

drew said:
Well first of all, 52% of the country didn't vote leave, not even 52% of the electorate voted leave. Secondly, there was no clear mandate at the time as to what Brexit actually meant and what the various options were. There was never mention, as far as I can recall of Brexit on default WTO terms. The whole rigmarole was a botched campaign by remain and plenty of untruths from quite a few on the leave side. Chuck in some dodgy funding and the use of Cambridge Analytica and the whole thing was an affront to democracy.

Lay out two options to leave and then have a two tiered referendum. Question 1, leave or remain. Question 2. if we leave do we leave on deal 1 (whatever parliament eventually agrees) or default WTO. However, any campaign should fully explain how the EU operates, ie how laws are passed, how commissioners are appointed by the elected governments of each country etc. It should also explain the pros and cons of the default WTO position and the same for whatever the deal is.

I agree with everything you've said about the referendum, I am pretty sure I will curse it's existence for the rest of my life. It was a flawed question, that was hijacked by really unscrupulous campaigning and passed on a threshold that never should have been an acceptable to create such a fundamental and far-reaching change to the country's constitution.

But it did happen, and people were told they'd get the result of it (which I agree is not a specific or tangible thing). And a lot of people bought into it and feel passionately, and I am sorry to say that there is little indication that a considerable amount of leave voters are being won around to voting differently on a second vote. I don't support a second referendum as I am not that confident we'd end up remaining, and because I think it risks alienating a large chunk of the electorate and sending them towards the far right.

However, we were talking specifically about Labour attempting to appeal to a broad church, occupy middle ground, win votes. Surely leave voters come under that umbrella, and some sort of compromise over Brexit needs to be a part of that. Labour are unlikely to win an election by writing off the 52%.

ATFC Seagull · May 31, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
drew is right. 17.4million is a small number of people compared to £46.5 million voters in this country. Of course the population as a whole, 64.6 million makes the first number an even smaller percentage, certainly not 52%

Sorry, but as much as I would dearly love to talk down the legitimacy of the referendum, that particular argument holds no sway - especially when we are discussing Labour's appeal to voters, which is what my comment was about.

It was 52% of the highest turnout for any vote in this country since 1992. Everyone who has any intention to play any sort of active role in this country's democracy voted. Yes, there's 25% missing (more if you take unregistered voters), but that's the way of the land. You can't suddenly bring them into play as a one off. I can guarantee they won't be turning out en masse to vote Labour at the next general election.

Edit - for clarity, I think the winning margin wasn't enough to authorise such as fundamental constitutional change as I've said above, and you could make the argument that referendums should have a minimum turnout that his higher than 72%. But we're talking about the fact that around half of the UK's active voters are pro-Brexit, which I'd say is pretty nailed on.

Thunder Bolt · May 31, 2019

ATFC Seagull said:
Sorry, but as much as I would dearly love to talk down the legitimacy of the referendum, that particular argument holds no sway - especially when we are discussing Labour's appeal to voters, which is what my comment was about.

It was 52% of the highest turnout for any vote in this country since 1992. Everyone who has any intention to play any sort of active role in this country's democracy voted. Yes, there's 25% missing (more if you take unregistered voters), but that's the way of the land. You can't suddenly bring them into play as a one off. I can guarantee they won't be turning out en masse to vote Labour at the next general election.

Edit - for clarity, I think the winning margin wasn't enough to authorise such as fundamental constitutional change as I've said above, and you could make the argument that referendums should have a minimum turnout that his higher than 72%. But we're talking about the fact that around half of the UK's active voters are pro-Brexit, which I'd say is pretty nailed on.

Were pro-Brexit. I have seen many who voted for Brexit who have changed their minds, and also know of some who didn't vote because they thought Remain would win easily.
We are a lot more informed, three years further down the line.

That's without going into why so many postal votes went astray (which also happened last week for the EU elections) I hope IDOX are being investigated.

Neville's Breakfast · May 31, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Were pro-Brexit. I have seen many who voted for Brexit who have changed their minds, and also know of some who didn't vote because they thought Remain would win easily.
We are a lot more informed, three years further down the line.

That's without going into why so many postal votes went astray (which also happened last week for the EU elections) I hope IDOX are being investigated.

A lot of people (perhaps including yourself) have been arguing that it is impossible to leave the EU. The evidence cited is that our Remain PM, Remain Parliament and Remain Speaker have not managed to agree a deal. Bearing this in mind what would be the point of a second referendum ? You wouldn’t accept a Leave result anyway as you would return to the default that leaving is impossible.

Thunder Bolt · May 31, 2019

Neville's Breakfast said:
A lot of people (perhaps including yourself) have been arguing that it is impossible to leave the EU. The evidence cited is that our Remain PM, Remain Parliament and Remain Speaker have not managed to agree a deal. Bearing this in mind what would be the point of a second referendum ? You wouldn’t accept a Leave result anyway as you would return to the default that leaving is impossible.

Perhaps including myself? You haven't ever seen me disputing it. What I do dispute is the lies, the illegal spending, the missing postal votes, and corruption.

I agree the vote should have been a minimum 70% agreement to leave, but would accept a second leave vote if it was open and above board. I've yet to see any politician advocating leave without hyperbole and truthful reasons.
The EU isn't perfect but we do need to trade on sensible terms.

I strongly dislike losing Freedom of Movement, but we do need immigrant workers. Those are far more likely to come from around the world rather than from Europe after Brexit. I think the xenophobes will be even more unhappy after Brexit, than before.

Stumpy Tim · May 31, 2019

ATFC Seagull said:
there is little indication that a considerable amount of leave voters are being won around to voting differently on a second vote. .
.

Really? I don't think you've looked very hard!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Thunder Bolt · May 31, 2019

Just one phone call from yesterday, but posted by a Twitter account called Remain Now. I see lots of these everyday.

London Irish · May 31, 2019

Chicken Run said:
[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] probably needs to ban political threads imo as every other thread on this board seems to be blue on blue name calling and nastiness ( I’m guilty too)!

But behaviour like the above has nothing to do with political differences though, it's just typical anonymous and entitled messageboard aggression that occurs on all threads by people who tend to have esteem issues

London Irish · May 31, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
Either there will be a second referendum and we will Remain or we will leave and it will be a disaster. At that point the country wil need a political party who will get us out of this mess, and it cannot be the Tories because they created it.

No deal will easily win a second referendum (alas)

London Irish · May 31, 2019

Simster said:
One of us didn't read the thread, was consequently needlessly rude, and hasn't apologised for being so. The other one hasn't. No point trying to conflate the pair of us, you're the one who's made a complete cock of himself again.

To be honest I preferred it when you were in your exciting meeting, and even better when Bozza banned you. Can't you try annoying him rather than me so that he sees fit to ban you again?

Quite right, you've certainly convinced me here we are different! Good for you

Neville's Breakfast · May 31, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Perhaps including myself? You haven't ever seen me disputing it. What I do dispute is the lies, the illegal spending, the missing postal votes, and corruption.

I agree the vote should have been a minimum 70% agreement to leave, but would accept a second leave vote if it was open and above board. I've yet to see any politician advocating leave without hyperbole and truthful reasons.
The EU isn't perfect but we do need to trade on sensible terms.

I strongly dislike losing Freedom of Movement, but we do need immigrant workers. Those are far more likely to come from around the world rather than from Europe after Brexit. I think the xenophobes will be even more unhappy after Brexit, than before.

Your last sentence contains a fair amount of hyperbole, distortion and untruthfulness in its wild generalization about the motives for voting leave. I know two ethnic minority voters who told me everyone they know from the same background voted leave because of the lack of fairness of an immigration system that favours Europeans.
Your 70 % threshold idea would not happen simply because there was no such threshold in 1975 to take us in. You say you would accept a Leave win but I am happy to admit that I would not accept a Remain one. We have had three years of insults and failure to accept the results of 2016 so we have our example to follow. Only last week there was a Liberal Democrat on Look East telling us the answer to the referendum is education. I was left wondering why she thought herself more intelligent than myself.
You are a very polite poster who is happy to exchange views but it is better to stick to the issues than trash the political representatives or the voters of an opposing view.

Two Professors · May 31, 2019

I feel rather sorry for Alastair Campbell,someone who actually sincerely believes in something,however mistaken in his belief,thrown to the lions,very publicly.

symyjym · May 31, 2019

Two Professors said:
I feel rather sorry for Alastair Campbell,someone who actually sincerely believes in something,however mistaken in his belief,thrown to the lions,very publicly.

You mean like Dr Kelly?

Chicken Run · May 31, 2019

London Irish said:
But behaviour like the above has nothing to do with political differences though, it's just typical anonymous and entitled messageboard aggression that occurs on all threads by people who tend to have esteem issues

I agree but this aggression seems prevalent in political threads no?

Two Professors · May 31, 2019

symyjym said:
You mean like Dr Kelly?

Don't think the security services got anywhere near Campbell!

Audax · May 31, 2019

Stumpy Tim said:
Really? I don't think you've looked very hard!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

That one is a little old, but still broadly true. Unfortunately the graph I was tracking earlier this year has disappeared when the site it was on did a major rebuild, because it was pretty illustrative of polling results since the referendum. It showed a gradually but consistently widening gap in average poll results over time, with Remain establishing a solid lead over Leave.

That's to be expected in part because younger folk who weren't eligible to vote then, are now, and we know from the demographics that age is a factor: the younger you are, the more likely you are to support Remain. But there's also evidence out there that a small but significant portion of Leave voters have now switched to Remain, and I suspect more would do so if a People's Vote was put forward that put No-Deal Leave vs Remain. That's because there will be soft-Brexit supporters who voted Leave originally who can't stomach No-Deal and would vote Remain to prevent it.

I also noted that in both the local council elections, and the EU elections, the polling got things slightly wrong: in both cases support for the Brexit Party was slightly over-done, while support for the Lib Dems (in particular) was under-done.

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