Our run in v everybody else.

Machiavelli · Apr 9, 2014

We badly need Wigan to draw in their FA Cup semi-final. That might just open up another place, but it's unlikely.
From where we stand now, and if we ignore the above about another place opening up, there are no fewer than seven teams that are chasing for that elusive sixth place. Over the past few weeks, Ipswich and Bournemouth have joined Reading, Forest and Brighton, but we can't ignore Blackburn and Watford, who haven't appeared in this thread as yet. So, here goes:

Reading 63 (+13):
Leicester (h)
Wigan (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
Doncaster (a)
Burnley (h)

Brighton 61 (+9):
Charlton (h)
Huddersfield (a)
Blackpool (h)
Yeovil (h)
Notts Forest (a)

Ipswich 61 (+7):
Doncaster (h)
Watford (a)
Bournemouth (h)
Burnley (a)
Sheff Wed (h)

Bournemouth 61 (+1):
Yeovil (a)
Sheff Wed (h)
Ipswich (a)
Forest (h)
Millwall (a)

Forest 59 (+7):
QPR (a)
Birmingham (h)
Leeds (a)
Bournemouth (a)
Brighton (h)

Blackburn 59 (+3):
Sheff Wed (a)
Yeovil (h)
Birmingham (a)
Charlton (a)
Wigan (h)

Watford 56 (+16):
Millwall (a)
Ipswich (h)
QPR (a)
Derby (a)
Charlton (a)
Huddersfield (h)

Making predictions seems foolish, but a few things stand out: Watford's goal difference is worrying, but the should have too many tough games to make it; Reading have a tough run-in; really hoping Bournemouth contrive to draw their games with both Ipswich and Forest -- this means that collectively the teams will be getting two, and not three, points out of these games; Bournemouth have some big games against teams struggling against relegation; quite apart from their dire form, Forest have a tough run of fixtures; and, dare I say it, I wouldn't swap our run-in for anyone else's

drew · Apr 9, 2014

Machiavelli said:
We badly need Wigan to draw in their FA Cup semi-final. That might just open up another place, but it's unlikely.

Is there a replay then? I would have thought the semis are decided on the day with extra time and pens.

Machiavelli · Apr 9, 2014

drew said:
Is there a replay then? I would have thought the semis are decided on the day with extra time and pens.

Someone will no doubt be able to haul out the rules but there are replays in earlier rounds -- we were in one, after all -- and I see no reason why this wouldn't apply to semi-finals. Might not to the final itself, it certainly has in the past, but perhaps I haven't been paying sufficient attention.

Bozza · Apr 9, 2014

Machiavelli said:
Someone will no doubt be able to haul out the rules but there are replays in earlier rounds -- we were in one, after all -- and I see no reason why this wouldn't apply to semi-finals. Might not to the final itself, it certainly has in the past, but perhaps I haven't been paying sufficient attention.

Since 1999 it's been settled in a single game. They're not going to all head back to Wembley for a replay...

Machiavelli · Apr 9, 2014

Bozza said:
Since 1999 it's been settled in a single game. They're not going to all head back to Wembley for a replay...

'It' being finals and semi-finals, or just the former?

drew · Apr 9, 2014

And as if by magic, an extract from the FA Cup Rules 2013/14

27. PROVISIONS FOR THE SEMI-FINALS
(a) The Association shall fix the ground for all Semi-Finals, and shall have direct control of the
arrangements.
(b) In the Semi-Finals, 5.5% of the net gate receipts of each match shall be remitted to The
Association and allocated for distribution to Affiliated Associations as determined by The
Association. The remainder of the net gate receipts shall be divided in accordance with the
Clauses below.
(c) The venue staging a Semi-Final shall be entitled to a payment agreed by The Association.
(d) In the Semi-Finals the remainder of the net gate receipts (less any payments to the staging
venue) of both matches shall be combined and divided as follows:
32.5% to The Association.
58.5% to be divided equally between the four Clubs.
9% to the Pool.

(e) When a match is drawn after 90 minutes, an extra 30 minutes shall be played, and 15
minutes shall be played in each half.
(f) When a match is drawn after extra time, the winner shall be determined by the taking of
kicks from the penalty mark in accordance with the procedure adopted by the International
Football Association Board.

hola gus · Apr 9, 2014

I keep trying to rule us out, but with that run-in it is definitely possible.

daveyboy1973 · Apr 9, 2014

Brighton 74 points
Bournemouth 72
Reading 71
Ipswich 70
Forest 68
Is what I think it will end up

TaxiRichieUK · Apr 9, 2014

i think we will win the next 4 games, draw against Forest, get in the play offs, beat Derby in the plays both hame and away, and then thrash QPR in the play off final !!!!!!

The Wizard · Apr 9, 2014

We have the best run in by miles definitely, but it's still going to be tough. We are in with a shot though for sure, Wigan MIGHT drop in form if they lose in the FA Cup.

TaxiRichieUK · Apr 9, 2014

The Wizard said:
We have the best run in by miles definitely, but it's still going to be tough. We are in with a shot though for sure, Wigan MIGHT drop in form if they lose in the FA Cup.

Wigan have one eye on reaching the cup final so will drop points somewhere, Reading will face a backlash from Leicester after last nite

Hotchilidog · Apr 9, 2014

TaxiRichieUK said:
i think we will win the next 4 games, draw against Forest, get in the play offs, beat Derby in the plays both hame and away, and then thrash QPR in the play off final !!!!!!

I'll have a pint of what you are drinking. :thumbsup:

Blue Valkyrie · Apr 9, 2014

3 homes, 2 aways left :

Reading
Albion
Ipswich

2 homes, 3 aways left :

Bournemouth
Forest
Blackburn

2 homes, 4 aways left :

Watford

We need an early goal on Saturday, otherwise it could be tense and grim.

Let's not throw away all yesterday's good work.

Mr Putdown · Apr 9, 2014

Pintos said:
Looking at everybody's final 5 games, it would appear to be a shoot-out between us and Bournemouth for 6th spot.
Never works out how you might think though, last night being a case in point.

As an outsider looking in, I am amazed that this is the first mention of Bournemouth on this thread.

They are on a fantastic run of form.

Stat Brother · Apr 10, 2014

The average league position of the opposition for the games remaining:-

Wigan - 5, games remaining - 38, total of league position - 7.6th, average league position of opposition.
Reading - 5, 40, 8th.
Forest - 5, 56, 11.2th.
Ipswich - 5, 59, 11.8th.
Watford - 6, 75, 12.5th.
B'mouth - 5, 77, 15.4th
Bir'ham - 5, 83, 16.6th.

The Albion - 5, games remaining - 91, total of league position - 18,2th, average league position of opposition.

Mowgli37 · Apr 10, 2014

Machiavelli said:
'It' being finals and semi-finals, or just the former?

Both of them.

Machiavelli · Apr 12, 2014

Really want Ipswich to draw with Bournemouth and Watford. I've said it before, we've got the best run-in of all the teams. If we can win against Huddersfield -- who will be without their two centre-backs -- we'll really have good momentum going in to our final two home games.

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Our run in v everybody else.

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