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[Albion] Relegation Odds



Moshe Gariani

Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,070
Tim Over Whelmed said:
34 will be plenty
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A simple projection of current points gives Cardiff a final total of 33pts.
Giraffe's "Tracker" system that takes into account fixtures difficulty suggests they could end on 35pts.
Sporting Index think Cardiff are most likely to finish on 32pts.

Sporting have us to finish 14th on 41pts which seems about right.
 




Icy Gull

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Simster said:
It'll be plenty to avoid being in the bottom 2 - not so sure about that 3rd from bottom spot though! Newcastle went down with 37 points only 3 years ago and my gut feeling is that all but Huddersfield and Fulham are capable of ending up with a points total of 36+.
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I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.
 


G

Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,837
TottonSeagull said:
6 points from 30 is relegation form and others are all improving...…………………..we need to get a win very soon! I'll be very concerned if we don't come away with 3 pts at home to Burnley!
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But six points from 30 is pretty much what was expected to be the return from that run of games. I'm not overly concerned, to be honest...
 


Surf's Up

Surf's Up

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2011
10,165
Here
Icy Gull said:
I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.
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Warnock will use/is using what's happened to motivate the players the club and the city...Cardiff will stay up. Burnley have got over their bad spell and are now difficult to beat again, Southampton have a new manager but still seem vulnerable, Newcastle will not be relegated and we are second from bottom in the Form Table over the last 10 games, us and Huddersfield are getting cut adrift at the bottom of this, arguably the most important and relevant table. . Make no mistake...we are in the relegation dogfight and we need at least a further 10 points to be safe. Our "easiest" games are all at home to teams in the same predicament as us and they will therefore not be easy.
 


Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,177
Surrey
Icy Gull said:
I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.
Click to expand...
The thing is, we probably only need one of those teams to fail to hit 36 points and we'd be alright by default. If all of them make 36 points, it will still take a terrible run for us to get sucked in.

Ultimately, the bookmakers are offering 16/1 which puts our chances of relegation at around 1 in 20. We really are not in bed-wetting territory yet. In some ways, flirting with relegation might be good for the club, as it'll act as a kick up the arse in the close season.
 




Tim Over Whelmed

Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 24, 2007
10,188
Arundel
Icy Gull said:
I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.
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But logic suggests they won't all have a good run in and also you could add the name Brighton to the list of teams that have a good run in?
 












Not Andy Naylor

Not Andy Naylor

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2007
8,797
Seven Dials
Simster said:
The thing is, we probably only need one of those teams to fail to hit 36 points and we'd be alright by default. If all of them make 36 points, it will still take a terrible run for us to get sucked in.

Ultimately, the bookmakers are offering 16/1 which puts our chances of relegation at around 1 in 20. We really are not in bed-wetting territory yet. In some ways, flirting with relegation might be good for the club, as it'll act as a kick up the arse in the close season.
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Betfair were offering 22/1 last week, which suggests that they also see us fading. I've been concerned for a while, and as for the possibility of a terrible run, we've already lost to Cardiff, Burnley and Fulham. So while our upcoming fixtures represent an opportunity to make ourselves safe and deny points to some of our direct rivals, the reverse could also be true.
 




M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,641
Fiveways
Not Andy Naylor said:
Betfair were offering 22/1 last week, which suggests that they also see us fading. I've been concerned for a while, and as for the possibility of a terrible run, we've already lost to Cardiff, Burnley and Fulham. So while our upcoming fixtures represent an opportunity to make ourselves safe and deny points to some of our direct rivals, the reverse could also be true.
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All of this is true, but something has been consistent since we've been in the PL: we've been crap away, and good at home. Those three you mentioned are all to come at home, and they're all still below us. When you chuck in three teams we've already beaten away (Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle) that still need to come to us, things might not be so bad, especially if the past is some guide towards the future (this is not a claim I'm making though).
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 24, 2007
10,188
Arundel


jimhigham

jimhigham

Je Suis Rhino
Apr 25, 2009
7,735
Woking
One of the key characteristics of our time in the Premier League so far has been an ability to piece together a couple of results whenever we have approached the Dotted Line of Doom. We’re reaching the point where we need to do the same again. I’m hopeful that home advantage against other relegation candidates should see us over the line.
 




Icy Gull

Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
jimhigham said:
One of the key characteristics of our time in the Premier League so far has been an ability to piece together a couple of results whenever we have approached the Dotted Line of Doom. We’re reaching the point where we need to do the same again. I’m hopeful that home advantage against other relegation candidates should see us over the line.
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True but the tension is likely to be epic in the next few games if we fail to win on Saturday and the other results go against us! Wouldn’t have it any other way, it’s the Brighton way :wink:
 


C

cardboard

New member
Jul 8, 2003
4,573
Mile Oak
Machiavelli said:
All of this is true, but something has been consistent since we've been in the PL: we've been crap away, and good at home. Those three you mentioned are all to come at home, and they're all still below us. When you chuck in three teams we've already beaten away (Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle) that still need to come to us, things might not be so bad, especially if the past is some guide towards the future (this is not a claim I'm making though).
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We lost to Bournemouth away (League)
 










L

Leegull

Well-known member
Apr 7, 2016
1,133
9/1 for relegation tonight, the bookies still think that there are six teams more likely to be relegated before us... that’s good enough for me...

We’ll be safe before April and in the semifinals of the FA Cup....

No worries :albion2:
 


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