[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

The Clamp · Jun 18, 2019

pb21 said:
The Tory party know they will face electoral oblivion if they don't 'deliver Brexit' by 31st October.

On this basis they will bodge something together in time so that they can say they have delivered Brexit.

This is exactly what I’m afraid of. Other remainers keep saying it can’t happen. To them I say, Fellow remainers, do not be naive. Nobody has stepped in to reverse this utter madness yet and nobody is going to.
We’re in deep, deep trouble. Nobody is coming to help.

The Man from Del Monte · Jun 18, 2019

Hungry Joe · Jun 18, 2019

The Man from Del Monte said:
Yes.

Albion my Albion · Jun 18, 2019

At this point it would be best if we carried on such as we believe we could leave anytime but it practical terms it will never happen.

Tim Over Whelmed · Jun 18, 2019

Mellotron said:
In or Out? The reason we're in this mess is that it isn't as simple as in or out, that's the whole bloody point!

I see what you're saying but by the GE each party "should" be able to clearly define what their exit, or not, strategy is and by what means. If they can't they won't get any votes and they know that would be political suicide.

Tim Over Whelmed · Jun 18, 2019

beorhthelm said:
contradiction there: PR to toe the party line and better represent the constituency. the whole reason we have this stalemate is many remain MP are mindful of the wishes of their leave constituents, otherwise they'd have voted to revoke by now.

Correct, but if we had PR and, potentially, either more independent MP's or conviction MPs in the main parties then they are more likely to vote for what they stand for and for the constituents to vote for the candidates that best suit their political wishes

Mellotron · Jun 18, 2019

Tim Over Whelmed said:
I see what you're saying but by the GE each party "should" be able to clearly define what their exit, or not, strategy is and by what means. If they can't they won't get any votes and they know that would be political suicide.

Labour might stand on 2nd Ref, but I'm not sure they will. Tories will not stand on a specific form of Brexit, in my opinion. I don't see how they possibly can.

Kalimantan Gull · Jun 18, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
The Withdrawal Agreement protects Ireland. How is the backstop going to be changed or improved?

It won't be changed. They will say it will be, with some tenuous wording, you know "we have assurances this is temporary, not binding and we can unilaterally withdraw". None of this may be true, but Boris will say it and the press and the ERG will go along with it and the Withdrawal Agreement will be voted through in its current guise.

If Boris is good at one thing, it will be this...

Surrey Phil · Jun 18, 2019

Whilst nobody wants a no deal, it is imperitive it is used as a threat in negotiations with EU (aren't Juncker & Tusk retiring anyway?). The same applies with labour (who have a different agenda as we all know) and Boris may have big enough balls to carry it through, if both options fail, prior to Halloween!

Kalimantan Gull · Jun 18, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
I don't know what part people don't understand when the EU say they won't renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.

IT AIN'T GONNA CHANGE.

The EU Project is far bigger to the 27 than any short-term, minor disruption caused by Britain flouncing out. Right wing politicians are living in denial. We will not be able to call their bluff. The best Boris could have hoped for is that the EU give us a short period of grace so we can get some sort of procedures and infrastructure in place, but that would have been dependant upon us paying the £39billion divorce bill. That won't happen under Boris either. We will be completely ****ed under all 6 of the remaining candidates, although there may be a semblance of organisation under Hunt or Stewart.

Sorry, you've quoted me there, but my post is not in disagreement with yours. Boris will SAY that the Withdrawal Agreement has been changed, even though it WON'T be changed. There will be immaterial changes of language used - like Teresa May got when she went back to Brussels - but the basic Agreement won't be changed.

All of that will be irrelevant to Boris and the ERG who will brief the papers and parliament that "substantial concessions have been received" and they will all triumphantly pass May's deal and hail Boris. Its exactly the kind of weasly thing politicians do all the time.

pb21 · Jun 18, 2019

The Clamp said:
This is exactly what I’m afraid of. Other remainers keep saying it can’t happen. To them I say, Fellow remainers, do not be naive. Nobody has stepped in to reverse this utter madness yet and nobody is going to.
We’re in deep, deep trouble. Nobody is coming to help.

At the very least we will be told we have left, even if we arguably haven’t. It will be an ambiguous cluster****, with the can kicked sufficiently into the long grass, stuck together with several plasters.

Nevertheless Johnson will be able to say, with a straight face (in the same way that he said we send the EU £350 million/week with a straight face), that we have left and we are free from the shackles of the EU and people will lap it up.

Ultimately the Tory party will live for another day.

Commander · Jun 18, 2019

I think we will go this time. As ****ing ridiculous a decision that it is.

We will regret this in 20 years when the likes of China and India laugh at little old Britain, an island with a mere 60 million people and no real power anymore.

Pavilionaire · Jun 18, 2019

Kalimantan Gull said:
Sorry, you've quoted me there, but my post is not in disagreement with yours. Boris will SAY that the Withdrawal Agreement has been changed, even though it WON'T be changed. There will be immaterial changes of language used - like Teresa May got when she went back to Brussels - but the basic Agreement won't be changed.

All of that will be irrelevant to Boris and the ERG who will brief the papers and parliament that "substantial concessions have been received" and they will all triumphantly pass May's deal and hail Boris. Its exactly the kind of weasly thing politicians do all the time.

I know we don't disagree but if there was anything possible the EU could have done for the UK PM to save a bit of face or put a different spin it would have already been been done by now. If a titbit wasn't thrown from the table for May it sure as hell won't be for Johnson.

Indeed, the EU may hold Boris personally responsible for Leave winning the Referendum and make life harder for him (and therefore the UK) than - say - Jeremy Hunt or Rory Stewart.

The Clamp · Jun 18, 2019

pb21 said:
At the very least we will be told we have left, even if we arguably haven’t. It will be an ambiguous cluster****, with the can kicked sufficiently into the long grass, stuck together with several plasters.

Nevertheless Johnson will be able to say, with a straight face (in the same way that he said we send the EU £350 million/week with a straight face), that we have left and we are free from the shackles of the EU and people will lap it up.

Ultimately the Tory party will live for another day.

Whatever happens BJ will walk away smelling of roses. He’s the sort of fiend that would fall off Marks & Spencer’s roof and land in a new suit.

Thunder Bolt · Jun 18, 2019

Surrey Phil said:
Whilst nobody wants a no deal, it is imperitive it is used as a threat in negotiations with EU (aren't Juncker & Tusk retiring anyway?). The same applies with labour (who have a different agenda as we all know) and Boris may have big enough balls to carry it through, if both options fail, prior to Halloween!

The EU have finished negotiating. A No Deal doesn't affect them at all, so they won't care. The only people who will be disadvantaged are the public of the UK. It is a toothless threat.

DavidinSouthampton · Jun 18, 2019

No - because nobody will be able to negotiate anything different in time, if at all, and Parliament won't allow a No Deal.

Weststander · Jun 18, 2019

Westdene Seagull said:
Impossible to say until we know who the next PM is. :endofthread:

Remainers (together with Brexit Labour MP’s who simply want to obstruct a non-Labour government) in the Commons will continue to scupper any Brexit, whoever the PM is. Boris, Hunt or anyone can’t influence that. At which we’ll all realise that May’s job was impossible all along.

CheeseRolls · Jun 18, 2019

Surrey Phil said:
Whilst nobody wants a no deal, it is imperitive it is used as a threat in negotiations with EU (aren't Juncker & Tusk retiring anyway?). The same applies with labour (who have a different agenda as we all know) and Boris may have big enough balls to carry it through, if both options fail, prior to Halloween!

By the same logic, it would be like the Albion booking an open top bus for May, because we are serious about winning the league. You need a lot more for a credible threat.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

DavidinSouthampton · Jun 18, 2019

Commander said:
I think we will go this time. As ****ing ridiculous a decision that it is.

We will regret this in 20 years when the likes of China and India laugh at little old Britain, an island with a mere 60 million people and no real power anymore.

I know we are not supposed to comment on here, but whatever happens in the next few days/weeks/months, the generation of my children's age (35 and 37) will sort it out.

Stat Brother · Jun 18, 2019

Commander said:
I think we will go this time. As ****ing ridiculous a decision that it is.

We will regret this in 20 years when the likes of China and India laugh at little old Britain, an island with a mere 60 million people and no real power anymore.

DavidinSouthampton said:
I know we are not supposed to comment on here, but whatever happens in the next few days/weeks/months, the generation of my children's age (35 and 37) will sort it out.

Yep in 20 years time we'll be back in the EU, so with that in mind it might be best if we get out ASAP.
At least then we'll be closer to the rejoining process.

Sure we'll be there on considerably worse terms, and bleating about how unfair that it, but at least we'll be back.

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