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[Football] Albion valued at £224 million



SAC

Well-known member
May 21, 2014
2,548
From the Argus comments:

Actually if TB wanted to sell his club he would get 500m back easy despite this university report which must be taken with a pinch of salt, it is after all only an academic paper divorced from the real world.

Ouch.

Half a billion pounds, the bloke is mad. His follow up shows that he's not a great fan of Mr Bloom. "If you think TB is some kind of mother Teresa doing it for the people you are deluded. After all he makes his money in the betting industry fleecing gambling addicts and their families."
 




trueblue

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
10,378
Hove
Half a billion pounds, the bloke is mad. His follow up shows that he's not a great fan of Mr Bloom. "If you think TB is some kind of mother Teresa doing it for the people you are deluded. After all he makes his money in the betting industry fleecing gambling addicts and their families."

He could make a bit of money from the libel case as well...
 






Justice

Dangerous Idiot
Jun 21, 2012
18,607
Born In Shoreham
Half a billion pounds, the bloke is mad. His follow up shows that he's not a great fan of Mr Bloom. "If you think TB is some kind of mother Teresa doing it for the people you are deluded. After all he makes his money in the betting industry fleecing gambling addicts and their families."
Someone should tell him you have to have minimum investment of £1m to gamble with Mr Bloom,
 






El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,705
Pattknull med Haksprut
Burnley 7th! I must be dreaming, how can they be higher than Everton for instance?

Burnley finished 7th last season, qualified for Europa League, made a profit, pay wages on average £30,000 a week lower than Everton.

Everton v Burnley Key Financial Stats.PNG
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,717
Back in Sussex
Burnley finished 7th last season, qualified for Europa League, made a profit, pay wages on average £30,000 a week lower than Everton.

View attachment 108852

I'm not entirely sure what "value" means in your analysis, but do you believe that if Burnley, Newcastle, Everton and West Ham were up for sale that Burnley would fetch the highest price?
 




El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,705
Pattknull med Haksprut
I'm not entirely sure what "value" means in your analysis, but do you believe that if Burnley, Newcastle, Everton and West Ham were up for sale that Burnley would fetch the highest price?

The value is would perhaps be used as a start point for negotiations, but then adjustments made for changes since the accounts were published.

Viewed purely as a business the figures show that Burnley run far more efficiently than Newcastle, Everton and West Ham and this would have an impact upon what someone is prepared to pay. The single biggest influencer on business success is the quality of management, and whilst Burnley is unfashionable the team they have there is very smart.

It's counterintuitive I agree, as the other clubs 'feel' that they should be higher than Burnley, and the value is based on future performance matching those of the past, which is unlikely.

The other 'bigger' clubs have a history of spunking money away on poor signings and expensive management changes (it cost Everton £14.4 million to sack Koeman and Allardyce last season for example).

Burnley's owners have put zero money into the club in the last decade and it has delivered regular results. Ashley has put over £140 million into Newcastle, Moshiri £175 million into Everton and even the Dildo Brothers have put money into West Ham (although they have charged the club £14 million in interest for the privilege).

The model has flaws and limitations like all rigid approaches to valuation, I didn't create it, but have tried to revise it for those issues which I think are its greatest weaknesses.

Last year we did the same exercise and published a paper in May 2018 than valued Arsenal at £1,832 million, and the club was bought by Stan Kroenke in August 2018 for £1,833 million. It could of course be a classic case of a stopped clock is correct twice a day.

All academic work is theoretical in nature and is published to be pulled apart, I'm fully aware I don't live in the 'real' world and I was tempted to adjust the figures because Burnley stood out, but it would have been wrong to do so. The bigger issue IMO is not whether club A is worth a few million more than club B, but that there appears to be three divisions in the Premier League, the Big Six, the mid tier (Everton, West Ham, Newcastle, Leicester and perhaps Burnley if they maintain their financial controls) and the rest.
 








El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,705
Pattknull med Haksprut
So attendances and future prospects etc haven't featured in the valuation?

Attendances are taken into consideration as they contribute towards both revenue, profits and stadium utilisation metrics which are part of the formula used.

Future prospects are not incorporated as they are diffifult to quantify. What were the prospects of Sheffield United and Norwich being promoted at the start of the seaon for example?
 


Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
I have nothing to back this up but I suggest the potential MASSIVENESS of WHU, Newcastle and Everton would blow the cost of buying the club out of the water in comparison to Burnley (who do have a fantastic history, but a long time ago) but will never be as big as the other three clubs again imo :shrug:

I very much doubt that Burnley would be on the radar of an investor who would almost certainly have the Champion’s League in their sights.
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,163
Goldstone
Attendances are taken into consideration as they contribute towards both revenue, profits and stadium utilisation metrics which are part of the formula used.
I meant as part of future prospects. A team with more fans are going to keep going and buying stuff when they club is relegated, whereas the tv income will drop like a stone. If you've just looked at revenue, I'd imagine that Bournemouth are overvalued in your calculations.

Future prospects are not incorporated as they are diffifult to quantify.
Yes they are difficult to quantify, but then valuing a football club is difficult.
 




El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,705
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I meant as part of future prospects. A team with more fans are going to keep going and buying stuff when they club is relegated, whereas the tv income will drop like a stone. If you've just looked at revenue, I'd imagine that Bournemouth are overvalued in your calculations.

Yes they are difficult to quantify, but then valuing a football club is difficult.

Revenue doesn't drop like a stone when relegated due to parachute payments.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
11,346
I have nothing to back this up but I suggest the potential MASSIVENESS of WHU, Newcastle and Everton would blow the cost of buying the club out of the water in comparison to Burnley (who do have a fantastic history, but a long time ago) but will never be as big as the other three clubs again imo :shrug:

I very much doubt that Burnley would be on the radar of an investor who would almost certainly have the Champion’s League in their sights.

That's true, but then maybe the smart investor will see the profit potential at Everton, Newcastle, WHU (requiring large capital risk) Vs the much lower cost base at Burnley, (plus they're playing style and manager is pretty stable now - not the normal revolving door) and would plump for Burnley as a good solid and pretty safe investment.

Why chase the champions League riches, at huge expense, when youve got a stable, lower cost base earner already.
 


El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,705
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The 'Big Six' have forced through changes to the distribution of Premier League money that will make it nigh on impossible for anyone to break into their cosy little cartel. On one of the other websites owned by [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] we revealed this last summer, but it took the mainstream press 9 months to work it out as they were too busy creaming their jeans about Amazon buying one of the minor packages to notice.

http://priceoffootball.com/new-tv-distribution-rules-everyones-a-winner/
 








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