[Politics] Brexit

ManOfSussex · Mar 12, 2019

WATFORD zero said:
You know it's madness when the sticking point is kicking the NI/Ireland can another 2 years down the road, after 3 years without even the faintest hint of a solution.

And then arguing about what is going to happen when the issue re-arises again in 2 years time

Nearly 3 years to come up with a withdrawal deal, ignoring the single biggest issue, and then we are going to negotiate a trade agreement and solve the elephant in the room in 21 months. Of course we are

That's the problem when The Good Friday Agreement exists and you then formulate the backstop on the basis of A equaling B, and B equaling C, and C equaling A, as Mrs May did in December 2017. As explained like this today:

In the endgame, the stage will be occupied by the two actual possibilities. One is withdrawal from the EU with the Irish backstop and a future of very close alignment with the customs union and the single market. The other is a second referendum and no Brexit. Why does it come down to this choice? Ireland.

First, she agreed that Northern Ireland would have to remain effectively in the customs union and the single market. Then, bawled out by Arlene Foster, she agreed that Northern Ireland would remain fully aligned with the rest of the UK.

She had built the trap and put her foot in it. The logic was as simple as it was merciless: Northern Ireland is aligned to the Republic and thus to the EU. Northern Ireland is also aligned to the UK. So the UK must be aligned to the EU. Once May agreed with both Dublin and the DUP, Brexit became a pale, anaemic thing: second-class EU membership. The Great Escape became a supervised stroll in the prison yard.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...l-equally-make-brexitopians-see-red-1.3821870

Blue Valkyrie · Mar 12, 2019

The Kremlin will be very unhappy if the MPs vote for the deal today and ruin ( postpone ? ) their planned *no deal* devastation on us.

Time to stop dancing to Uncle Vladimir's tune, and to get the deal over the line.

Giraffe · Mar 12, 2019

Surely if we don't vote for a deal, then we hit no deal by default. They can vote against no deal all they like but it will happen on 29th March if a deal is not agreed by then.

I think they should accept what we have now. It is good enough. It was never going to be perfect.

ManOfSussex · Mar 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie · Mar 12, 2019

Giraffe said:
Surely if we don't vote for a deal, then we hit no deal by default. They can vote against no deal all they like but it will happen on 29th March if a deal is not agreed by then.

I think they should accept what we have now. It is good enough. It was never going to be perfect.

Absolutely right.

No amount of voting against *no deal* stops it in practice.

No one really likes the deal too much, but it is the best of only bad outcomes now.

Mental Lental · Mar 12, 2019

Giraffe said:
Surely if we don't vote for a deal, then we hit no deal by default. They can vote against no deal all they like but it will happen on 29th March if a deal is not agreed by then.

I think they should accept what we have now. It is good enough. It was never going to be perfect.

If parliament votes to stop No Deal and there is no alternate deal by the (maybe extended) deadline then that’s a mandate to withdraw article 50. Seems logical to me.

nicko31 · Mar 12, 2019

Blue Valkyrie said:
The Kremlin will be very unhappy if the MPs vote for the deal today and ruin ( postpone ? ) their planned *no deal* devastation on us.

Time to stop dancing to Uncle Vladimir's tune, and to get the deal over the line.

Think he'd settle for May's deal, we're damaged goods now and off the world stage. Job done....

Blue Valkyrie · Mar 12, 2019

nicko31 said:
Think he'd settle for May's deal, we're damaged goods now and off the world stage. Job done....

Yes. He has many possible wins in all this.

But let's at least deny him the 2 biggest victories of :

- *no deal* destruction of the UK.

- or the UK electing a legion of angry Farages to sit ( alongside similar from other countries ) in the EU Parliament to destroy it from within.

He'll soon be ramping up his hybrid attack to focus on ripping Scotland out of the UK. Can we see the threat, and learn from recent mistakes ?

Pavilionaire · Mar 12, 2019

5Live Brexit phone-in from Cambridge (Remain) and Peterborough (Leave). First up - why did you vote "Leave":

Peterborough - Leaver 1 - "My friend is a plumber. He can't get work but these Eastern Europeans come in and get work within 2 weeks. I'm not a racist but..."

Leaver 2: "It's the migrants. There's too many people in this country. We're fine on our own."

WATFORD zero · Mar 12, 2019

Giraffe said:
Surely if we don't vote for a deal, then we hit no deal by default. They can vote against no deal all they like but it will happen on 29th March if a deal is not agreed by then.

I think they should accept what we have now. It is good enough. It was never going to be perfect.

Wrong again, but I don't think you have ever managed to grasp this whole Brexit thing, have you ? (and you do realise we haven't started negotiating 'the deal' yet, this is only the withdrawal).

Giraffe said:
I favour the smart border. They already use it for Sweden/Norway for a much longer border. The guy behind the technology here says it is very achievable for Ireland.

Giraffe said:
IIf the economy is only 1-% worse off for a year or two no one will really notice. Long term we could well be better off out of the EU but no one will be forecasting 50 years in advance.

Giraffe said:
Ah, another remoaner ridiculing the winners. Did they hand out the sour grapes as you left the polling station?

Have you figured out what you won yet :facepalm:

The Clamp · Mar 12, 2019

Dorset Seagull said:
If he recently trousered £7m I imagine he isn’t all that stupid

Just born into the right circles. It’s all there for the taking. No brains required. All he’s ever had to do all his life is do everything that’s expected of him. And believe me, that wanker has never done anything you wouldn’t expect of him.

ManOfSussex · Mar 12, 2019

nicko31 said:
So what have we got?

1. An arbitration mechanism to escape the backstop - but no time limit.
2. Legally binding changes - but not ones she initially asked for.
3. An aspiration for Alternative Arrangements by December 2020 - but no hard start date.

Anyone duped?

Can the DUP be duped?

If it does get through this is the end of the beginning, Brexit will continue to paralyse us for many years.

As Varadkar has said this morning the backstop hasn't been undermined and will still apply if needed, coupled with the initial comments of Sammy Wilson, I'd say on the balance of probability The DUP won't be backing May.

I'm sure they've had a lengthy meetings about it yesterday and today. I hear it all started at 1690................

CHAPPERS · Mar 12, 2019

ManOfSussex said:
As Varadkar has said this morning the backstop hasn't been undermined and will still apply if needed, coupled with the initial comments of Sammy Wilson, I'd say on the balance of probability The DUP won't be backing May.

I'm sure they've had a lengthy meetings about it yesterday and today. I hear it all started at 1690................

In discussions with the UK, the government has worked hand in hand with our EU partners’ institutions, including the commission and the taskforce led by Michel Barnier.

In that work we have insisted that the withdrawal agreement could not be re-written and that the backstop arrangement, while intended to be temporary, must continue to apply unless and until its replaced by future arrangements that achieve the same objective, namely there will be no hard border.

However we’ve also said we would be prepared to offer guarantees and further assurances to the UK of our good faith and intentions.

Indeed we’ve offered such reassurances on many occasions, the instrument agreed yesterday puts those assurances on a legal footing and represents an unambiguous statement by both parties of what has been agreed.

It does not re open the withdrawal agreement or undermine the backstop or its application.

It says we will work together in good faith, in pursuit of a future relationship that ensures the objectives of the protocol, particularly the need to avoid a hard border are met.

We are also committed to exploring alternatives in a timely way in the event that the overall future relationship cannot be concluded in a satisfactory and a timely manner.

But it does not call into question that the backstop will apply unless and until better arrangements are agreed, with all parties in good faith and best endeavours to that aim.

I really can't see that enough has changed? Certainly not for the DUP and possibly not for the ERG.

Thunder Bolt · Mar 12, 2019

Ooohhh

[tweet]1105393787243778053[/tweet]

Blue Valkyrie · Mar 12, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Ooohhh

[tweet]1105393787243778053[/tweet]

He's obsessed with his codpiece.

Dorset Seagull · Mar 12, 2019

Herr Tubthumper said:
I think you need to re-read my post more slowly. I have pasted it above for convenience.

Ok I guess it’s down to interpretation so I must have misinterpreted

Two Professors · Mar 12, 2019

Ah,new pearls of wisdom from the losers.People with degrees are stupid.Funny that-you've been telling us for two years that only educated people should be allowed a vote.JRM has an upper second,so where is the bar set now? :lolol:

Eeyore · Mar 12, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Ooohhh

[tweet]1105393787243778053[/tweet]

Best Tweet EVER.

A1X · Mar 12, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
Ooohhh

[tweet]1105393787243778053[/tweet]

But is it bollocks in the sense of "This is utter bollocks" or is it bollocks in the sense of "Bollocks, they've rumbled us"?

nicko31 · Mar 12, 2019

The legal opinion on last night’s Brexit developments, jointly written with Jason Coppel QC and Sean Aughey...

https://www.daqc.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2019/03/here.pdf

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