General Election predictions

Simster · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
No I'm not, I read your comment that the opposition hold all the cards, and I thought to myself that was crap, as I know the EU have a great deal to lose, as we import so much from them. Of course they import from us too, but the point is, they don't hold all the cards.

If you didn't mean that they really hold all the cards, don't blame me when I take you at your word.

From Google:
hold all the cards
phrase of card
1. be in a very strong or advantageous position.

Just so that we're clear what my words mean, because you appear to be struggling with this. The EU are in a far stronger position than we are. Yes of course we import stuff from the EU, but that loss is far easier to absorb for them than the loss of the EU as a realistic trading partner for us.

Triggaaar said:
Us being worse of than the EU is still a disaster for the EU. They'd have to cut off their nose to spite their face. On the other hand, a fair deal would be good for both sides.

"a fair deal would be good for both sides" is little more than a truism at this point. It is not in the EU's interest to make things work well for us, because they want to discourage others from leaving. And once again, IMO your rhetoric bears to relationship to the facts - a bad trade deal would be an inconvenience and troublesome to the EU. The disaster would be on the UK side.

Triggaaar said:
I don't accept what you think are bare facts. I don't think we can screw the EU over, but I think we can offer a fair deal, and it would be unwise for the EU to reject it.

What is a fair deal though? How many billions do you think the divorce settlement should be for it to be considered fair? What about trade tariffs? It's going to worse than having no tariffs at all, that's for sure.

Postman Pat · Jun 7, 2017

Pavilionaire said:
I think Theresa May will win but she won't get the landslide many predicted 6 weeks ago, but she'll be baled out by the returning Ukippers and end up with a majority of c. 35 seats.

That said, Labour has run a far better campaign than the Tories and I suspect their message will have resonated with younger voters - that factor could reap dividends in 5-10 years time. The problem is the electorate haven't had time to get to trust Corbyn - voting for him is still quite a punt given the impression left by the likes of Diane Abbott and his hugely ambitious spending plans.

Theresa May's underwhelming campaign and nervy, robotic performances will have disappointed Tory bigwigs, and she won't have the confidence of a big win to take into the Brexit negotiations. To use a tennis analogy, what should have been a straight-sets semi has turned out to be a gruelling, energy-sapping 5-setter and I don't think she'll be in good shape for the Brexit talks in a few days time.

Agree with pretty much all of this, but think the Tories will gain a slightly bigger majority - nearer 50.

Must admit I have a little more time for Corbyn than I did before the election was called. Just not sure he has enough backing in his party to be able to have a credible opposition.

May has done herself no favours, Farron has tried but is pretty much non-existent, and hopefully we have pretty much seen the end of UKIP as a party of any influence.

The Clamp · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
I predict you'll be wrong. And when it's pointed out that you're wrong, you'll make some lame excuse.

Serious question. Are you about 18 or 19 years old by any chance. You come across as an angry teenager in posts lik that above and in your multiple quote, lengthy retorts to those you hold a differing opinion to you.

It's my prediction that May will be gone within 6 months as I don't believe she's fit for purpose. The only reason I can see her staying is to try and stay defiant to the end but I still think he party will owst her. That's a prediction.

It may or may not come to be. I also predict that you will be straight on here with one of your multi-quote ****-fest retorts like the time you followed me across the board trying to point out some non existent grammatical error of mine over about 20 pages.

You my boy, are a tit.

highflyer · Jun 7, 2017

Postman Pat said:
hopefully we have pretty much seen the end of UKIP as a party of any influence.

I am afraid UKIP have not disappeared, they have just been absorbed. The views of UKIP will have significant influence in any future Tory government.

I agree (to stay on track with the thread) that it is the ex-UKIP votes that are likely to swing it in May's favour and give her a safe majority.
Might not save her personally however, given her abysmal performance.

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

Simster said:
From Google:
hold all the cards
phrase of card
1. be in a very strong or advantageous position.

Just so that we're clear what my words mean, because you appear to be struggling with this.

It's really sweet of you to care, thank you.
From the Cambridge dictionary:
"to be in a strong position when you are competing with someone else, because you have all the advantages:"

They don't have all the advantages.

It appears that's not quite what you meant though, you just meant they're in a stronger position than us, so fine, I misunderstood you. Your point was about Howard's contribution - I don't think his comments will affect the outcome of the negotiations.

The EU are in a far stronger position than we are. Yes of course we import stuff from the EU, but that loss is far easier to absorb for them than the loss of the EU as a realistic trading partner for us.

The EU is already in a mess with several countries failing, so I don't think the can absorb that loss.

"a fair deal would be good for both sides" is little more than a truism at this point. It is not in the EU's interest to make things work well for us, because they want to discourage others from leaving.

There's more than one part to whether something is in the EU's interest - on the one hand, yes they'd like to discourage others from leaving, but that's outweighed by the fact that they do need to do a deal with us. The only other strong countries that could leave and be able to negotiate hard are Germany and France, and they don't want to leave anyway.

And once again, IMO your rhetoric bears to relationship to the facts - a bad trade deal would be an inconvenience and troublesome to the EU.

I'll ignore the insult, and stick to the point that I strongly disagree with your opinion that no trade deal would be merely an inconvenience and troublesome to the EU.

What is a fair deal though?

Something not that dissimilar to the current deal.

LlcoolJ · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Fair enough, but right now it's about choosing. If you think Corbyn and a coalition will be no worse, again, fair enough. I find that surprising though.

Yes, that's what I think. As I said, I have zero faith in May, Fox and co so it would be impossible for me to think a coalition approach could be worse.

So why did you say 'although May has tried to make this the only point in the election, it's irrelevant to me when it comes to who I would like to see running the country'. If you don't think think May would be better at the negotiations than a coalition, that's fine and therefore you'll vote based on other factors, but that's not the same as saying it's irrelevant.

High end pedantry even for you mate. But I've made the point clear now hopefully.

I don't think they'll make significant changes that will affect our families for generations.

Good luck with that.

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

The Clamp said:
Serious question. Are you about 18 or 19 years old by any chance.

Yes, of course.

You come across as an angry teenager in posts lik that above and in your multiple quote, lengthy retorts to those you hold a differing opinion to you.

And you come across as an easy going and well balanced chap. I multi quote so that's it's easy to see what each part of my post is replying to. Seems sensible to me.

It's my prediction that May will be gone within 6 months as I don't believe she's fit for purpose. The only reason I can see her staying is to try and stay defiant to the end but I still think he party will owst her. That's a prediction.

Yes I know, that's what you already said. And you know what my prediction is.

It may or may not come to be. I also predict that you will be straight on here with one of your multi-quote ****-fest retorts like the time you followed me across the board trying to point out some non existent grammatical error of mine over about 20 pages.

I didn't follow you, you were arguing with me on one thread, and that's the thread I posted on. You're talking crap.

You my boy, are a tit.

Ouch

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

LlcoolJ said:
High end pedantry even for you mate.

It's not even on my pedantry scale.

But I've made the point clear now hopefully. &#55357;&#56841;

Yep, understood.

Chicken Run · Jun 7, 2017

Conservatives will be lucky if they match the 17 majority they have at present unfortunately

Scunner · Jun 7, 2017

Good analytics show a central estimate of 64 seat majority, however in my view the 'quiet Tory' effect will mean a Majority of 80. That's my bet. Apart from 5 people I do not know anyone that is voting Labour. Those 5 are: my Mum because she always has done and her Dad was a TU shop-steward; my ex-Wife who clearly thinks the money tree is a 'thing' as I financially support and her rich father does too, so she's naturally inclined to want other people's money; two socialist worker types on FB who are in their mid-Forties with no kids and haven't grown up yet from their student days and finally a mate who lives in Liverpool with his girlfriend from Bootle and he's scared of her.

Ironically that spread of 5 people pretty much sums up Corbynite Labour's core vote. OAPs that have never done anything different, single Mums who want your money, Socialist worker headcases and scared men in Liverpool.

lawros left foot · Jun 7, 2017

Scunner said:
Good analytics show a central estimate of 64 seat majority, however in my view the 'quiet Tory' effect will mean a Majority of 80. That's my bet. Apart from 5 people I do not know anyone that is voting Labour. Those 5 are: my Mum because she always has done and her Dad was a TU shop-steward; my ex-Wife who clearly thinks the money tree is a 'thing' as I financially support and her rich father does too, so she's naturally inclined to want other people's money; two socialist worker types on FB who are in their mid-Forties with no kids and haven't grown up yet from their student days and finally a mate who lives in Liverpool with his girlfriend from Bootle and he's scared of her.

Ironically that spread of 5 people pretty much sums up Corbynite Labour's core vote. OAPs that have never done anything different, single Mums who want your money, Socialist worker headcases and scared men in Liverpool.

You live in Heathfield, its hardly a hotbed of socialist revolution!

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

lawros left foot said:
You live in Heathfield

£5 says he doesn't!

:wink:

lawros left foot · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
£5 says he doesn't!

Location says near Heathfield, it just depends how near

Scunner · Jun 7, 2017

Correct, I don't - I live 10 miles outside it. I was born in Heathfield - but yes, even the council estate there is ice-blue.

However, Heathfield and it's environs are not my cultural frame of reference...this would be commuting to London and a large corporation. Most people I know think Corbyn is a knob and apart from that they really don't care about the rest of it.

pb21 · Jun 7, 2017

lawros left foot said:
You live in Heathfield, its hardly a hotbed of socialist revolution!

Quite, living in/near Heathfield I wouldn't be surprised if they only knew five people from all political persuasions.

Only knows five people voting Labour but knows Labour's core vote, textbook.

withdeanwombat · Jun 7, 2017

Labour are 3 votes to the good in my constituency, but it won't last.

Tories by 23 seats.

Scunner · Jun 7, 2017

[MENTION=16399]pb21[/MENTION] I think the humour may have gone over your head, but I may be wrong...

Leekbrookgull · Jun 7, 2017

Ernest said:
Labour to win by a majority of 400+

This your prediction or Diane Abbots ?

dibsy · Jun 7, 2017

Tories get in with a slightly better majority, just enough to give May the strength to ignore the hard brexiteers. During the election process she has learned a lot. Secretly she has been playing her cards close to her chest and actually wants a soft Brexit but has had to keep the loony right wingers sweet til the election. On Friday she will reveal her hand and announce the soft brexit she hopes for.

OK - I think the larger majority for May is true, the rest is wishful thinking. I fear she's going to be a shit-shambles of a PM. Bring on the next election with a better choice of candidates. Hopefully none of this years crop will be standing.

Moshe Gariani · Jun 7, 2017

Postman Pat said:
Must admit I have a little more time for Corbyn than I did before the election was called. Just not sure he has enough backing in his party to be able to have a credible opposition.

The unbelievers will slowly have to (very quietly) admit they were wrong and fall into line behind JC.

"For the many. Not the few." has fired the political imagination of far too many people to be abandoned now. With his hard earned, rather than simply assumed, "credibility" Corbyn will be a major force in British politics for as long as he chooses to be.

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