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[Politics] Do you believe we are going to leave the EU on October 31st

Are we leaving on Oct 31st ?

  • Total voters
    158


Kalimantan Gull

Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
12,924
Central Borneo / the Lizard
Pavilionaire said:
I know we don't disagree but if there was anything possible the EU could have done for the UK PM to save a bit of face or put a different spin it would have already been been done by now. If a titbit wasn't thrown from the table for May it sure as hell won't be for Johnson.

Indeed, the EU may hold Boris personally responsible for Leave winning the Referendum and make life harder for him (and therefore the UK) than - say - Jeremy Hunt or Rory Stewart.
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Johnson will be brilliant at spin - and if he wants this deal to pass, and the EU want this deal to pass, it will pass. They WILL give him the face-saver. Politics.

Its really just maths back in the UK parliament. Last time May's deal went for a vote it was defeated 344-286. Johnson, IDS and Rees-Mogg were among those voting for the deal. You need 30 MP's to flip, and 34 Tories voted against it. Nearly all of those were ERG who will come on board under a Johnson leadership - lets face it, several are likely to be in cabinet, like Priti Patel and Steve Baker.

A few Labour will probably switch as well. Boris will make sure anyone who might vote for the deal will get enough inducements to do so.

The Brexit deal has so far been brought down by the DUP and the ERG. Next time the DUP won't matter (and Boris could win their votes) and the ERG will come in line. The only way to defeat it now in parliament is by Remainers, but I don't see it, unfortunately. Grieve will probably quit the Tories, Justine Greening maybe too, but are there enough there? One of the Remainer Tories who voted against the deal is Boris' brother Jo! He'll vote for it this time.

And all the people moaning about how May's deal 'isn't leaving the EU' will be hailing Boris and 'his deal'. Politics.
 




B

blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
One of a series of quite unlikely events has to happen. My thoughts on the following events and their liklihood

General election = Not a chance. The Tory MP’s would face wipeout from the Brexit party if there is an election before we leave. Parliament, couldn’t even get a simple majority for this let alone two thirds.

Theresa May’s deal (or a rebrand of) = Very unlikely. Those who say the EU would never consider a substantial renegotiation are correct, certainly not before October. How would they know that whatever is renegotiated could get through Parliament? Boris can’t get a cosmetic rehash of this through parliament any more than Theresa May could. An outside possibility is that they could insist on a second ref as part of the deal

Second Ref = I can’t see it. With all the macho posturing to the Tory members going on, could Boris really sponsor something this unpredictable? More likely is that, late in the day, with Corbyn having been slaughtered at conference, Labour unite with SNP, lib dems and tory remainers and they hijack some parliamentary time to get this through. The only way the numbers could be found in parliament is if is if it was a stark choice between 2nd ref and no deal. I still can’t see it.

No deal = The most likely outcome. Parliament will try to avoid it, but without a majority for anything and with very little sympathy from the EU for an extension (there will be even less with a belligerent Boris in charge) There will be no way alternative to the clock running out. The outcome will be economic and social carnage, but the Tories will present this as the will of the people, and the press will back them up. Unbelievably they will remain the dominant electoral force as the middle aged tory vote will be relatively insulated from the effects.
 


Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
65,503
Beside the seaside, beside the sea
Kalimantan Gull said:
Johnson will be brilliant at spin - and if he wants this deal to pass, and the EU want this deal to pass, it will pass. They WILL give him the face-saver. Politics.

Its really just maths back in the UK parliament. Last time May's deal went for a vote it was defeated 344-286. Johnson, IDS and Rees-Mogg were among those voting for the deal. You need 30 MP's to flip, and 34 Tories voted against it. Nearly all of those were ERG who will come on board under a Johnson leadership - lets face it, several are likely to be in cabinet, like Priti Patel and Steve Baker.

A few Labour will probably switch as well. Boris will make sure anyone who might vote for the deal will get enough inducements to do so.

The Brexit deal has so far been brought down by the DUP and the ERG. Next time the DUP won't matter (and Boris could win their votes) and the ERG will come in line. The only way to defeat it now in parliament is by Remainers, but I don't see it, unfortunately. Grieve will probably quit the Tories, Justine Greening maybe too, but are there enough there? One of the Remainer Tories who voted against the deal is Boris' brother Jo! He'll vote for it this time.

And all the people moaning about how May's deal 'isn't leaving the EU' will be hailing Boris and 'his deal'. Politics.
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30 Tories have threatened to leave the party in the event of a No Deal scenario.
 


Grombleton

Grombleton

Surrounded by <div>s
Dec 31, 2011
7,356
DavidinSouthampton said:
I know we are not supposed to comment on here, but whatever happens in the next few days/weeks/months, the generation of my children's age (35 and 37) will sort it out.
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I'd like it if they didn't **** it up for my generation to have to 'sort it out', that'd be lovely :lolol:
 






K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,902
hassocks
pb21 said:
The Tory party know they will face electoral oblivion if they don't 'deliver Brexit' by 31st October.

On this basis they will bodge something together in time so that they can say they have delivered Brexit.
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If labour get someone electable in they would be destroyed either way.
 


P

Postman Pat

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
6,971
Coldean
blue-shifted said:
No deal = The most likely outcome. Parliament will try to avoid it, but without a majority for anything and with very little sympathy from the EU for an extension (there will be even less with a belligerent Boris in charge) There will be no way alternative to the clock running out. The outcome will be economic and social carnage, but the Tories will present this as the will of the people, and the press will back them up. Unbelievably they will remain the dominant electoral force as the middle aged tory vote will be relatively insulated from the effects.
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There is always the option to revoke Article 50, we don't need EU agreement to that, and then it would potentially provide the opportunity to negotiate an alternative.

Not saying it will happen, but just running down the clock doesn't automatically mean no deal if Parliament doesn't want it to.
 






vegster

vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,894
Boris might just be able to get May's deal over the line with pointless semantics and bluster. As pointed out earlier, this will go down as Boris's Deal and be much celebrated unless in two years time we are in a shitstorm of economic woes and it will then be known as May's Deal.

I'm booking a car ferry for Dunkirk mid October for possibly my last beer run ever.
 


Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,586
There seem to be two forces at work here:

a) Pro Brexit forces that will surely result in a coming together of Boris Johnson and Farage in a common interest to deliver Brexit.

b) Anti-Brexit forces swirling around the Lib Dems and the Labour Party, with Chuka's switch, Alistair Campbell voting Lib Dem in the European elections, Deputy Leader Tom Watson pledging support for a Second Referendum and the 6 million petition / 1 million x 2 London marches, plus the overriding fear of the havoc that No Deal will wreak.
 


Audax

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,941
Uckfield
Given it looks likely that Boris will be the next PM ... it's hard to see how we get to October 31st without a general election being triggered one way or another. Should that happen, the EU will have no hesitation giving a further extension in the hope that a 2nd referendum majority government can be formed (and then hope for a Remain result).
 




nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,608
Gods country fortnightly
Audax said:
Given it looks likely that Boris will be the next PM ... it's hard to see how we get to October 31st without a general election being triggered one way or another. Should that happen, the EU will have no hesitation giving a further extension in the hope that a 2nd referendum majority government can be formed (and then hope for a Remain result).
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Can just see Labour and the Tories campaigning on getting a better deal with Europe again......

Would Labour campaign on 2nd ref and Tories on No Deal? That's the big question....
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 24, 2007
10,190
Arundel
Mellotron said:
Labour might stand on 2nd Ref, but I'm not sure they will. Tories will not stand on a specific form of Brexit, in my opinion. I don't see how they possibly can.
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I'd agree on Labour and think that Boris would go to Brussels, return and make a Churchillian speech to whip the Tory masses about some new concession, which wouldn't be a great deal, in the hope of getting May v.4 over the line and use that as a clear exit strategy.
 


lawros left foot

lawros left foot

Glory hunting since 1969
Jun 11, 2011
13,726
Worthing
Aren’t we all forgetting the Irish backstop?

The EU can’t, and won’t change that, the DUP is completely intransigent on the problem, therefore , no deal or revoke Article 50.

Don’t forget,95% of Mays deal was acceptable to the majority of Parliament, it fell on the backstop, which won’t change.

The Tories major fault lines in the last 2 centuries have been, our relationship with Europe, and the ‘Irish Question ‘
Brexit is the perfect Tory storm.
 








Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
65,503
Beside the seaside, beside the sea
KZNSeagull said:
Not going to start another thread, but Raab is out of the PM running. Rory is through with 33 votes, so let's see him tear into Boris tonight (hopefully).
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Michael Gove - 41
Jeremy Hunt - 46
Sajid Javid - 33
Boris Johnson - 126
Dominic Raab - 30
Rory Stewart - 37
 








nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,608
Gods country fortnightly
Rory, gonna cause trouble. They will be concerned about his kamikaze style. Time to expose Alexander....
 


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