[Football] Relegation

knocky1 · Dec 30, 2018

We would have stayed up last season with 33 points and a GD of -25 or better.

Brightonfan1983 · Dec 30, 2018

Reinelt12 said:
I was putting a slightly different angle on what you were saying - not looking at where we can finish this season, but looking out for other results so that next seasons division is weaker and therefore less likely to be relegated.

I may be alone in looking at other results and hoping they will go “our way” (if only for fun, not because I am worried) - but I think the definition of “our way” is changing...

I know just what you mean. Cardiff winning yesterday was right up my street; I want them to stay up but don't think they will, so the more points they take off teams when you don't expect them to, makes for a more exciting and scrappy finish.

Bold Seagull · Dec 30, 2018

Plooks said:
Bullshit. When was the last time a team stayed up on 25 pts!? We are far from safe yet.
A bad run of form or injuries to crucial players could aee us dumped right back in it.

To get 25 from 20, then not get 10pts or so from 18 games is not a bad run of form, it would a collapse of stat busting proportions. Not just our collapse either, it will need 4 or 5 teams to go on unbelievable runs too.

We might not be mathematically safe, but to say we’re far from safe when 3 wins 2 draws from the remaining 18 games probably does it is a bit fanciful.

swindonseagull · Dec 30, 2018

Weststander said:
Over the next 18 months some larger clubs (but not colossal, as they would have people believe) such as Leeds and Villa will return, perhaps Sunderland after that. Hopefully not the Owls. Replacing the likes of Hudd, Cardiff and Burnley.

I don’t think we should be daunted by that prospect, as with relatively low spending and know-how, we’ve already beaten ManU, Arsenal and Everton. Plus by then the recruitment quartet, and CH with tactics, will be that much wiser.

Will Leeds get an automatic place in the Champions League as they are the biggest club in the world? In fact I still laugh when they lose and hope the other teams overtake them, Leeds in the play offs and lose........oh how I will laugh.......

BTW I hate Leeds

The_Viper · Dec 30, 2018

We're 13 points from the 38 magic marker. 40 is the cliche, 38 is the genuine safety total. 13 more to go. Once we get there then we can start worrying about it. Start with a point or better at West Ham.

durrington gull · Dec 30, 2018

3 more wins and we’re safe - 34pts will be more than enough this season

Bold Seagull · Dec 30, 2018

The_Viper said:
We're 13 points from the 38 magic marker. 40 is the cliche, 38 is the genuine safety total. 13 more to go. Once we get there then we can start worrying about it. Start with a point or better at West Ham.

And 35 more often than not, when it’s scrappy down the bottom like it is this season.

Bold Seagull · Dec 30, 2018

Plooks said:
Yes. But we are NOT safe yet. Which was what was suggested.

But hardly meriting your original response. There remains the possibility but it’s also false modesty to suggest we aren’t very comfortable from the drop going into the business end of the season.

spence · Dec 30, 2018

Bold Seagull said:
But hardly meriting your original response. There remains the possibility but it’s also false modesty to suggest we aren’t very comfortable from the drop going into the business end of the season.

Cheers. Sometimes I just ignore pointless drivel. Better things to do

GT49er · Dec 30, 2018

Plooks said:
Bullshit. When was the last time a team stayed up on 25 pts!? We are far from safe yet.
A bad run of form or injuries to crucial players could aee us dumped right back in it.

OK then, so when was the last time a team with 25 points after 20 games went down?

(A clue for you - it was either a ruddy long time ago or never).

Perkino · Dec 30, 2018

Reinelt12 said:
I saw something on here that got me thinking... at what point do we stop being concerned about any 3 teams out of the bottom 7 losing so they don’t catch us, and then start wanting “bigger” clubs to go down (thus in theory leaving weaker clubs in the Premier League for next season for us to stay above)

For example - would we at some point want Huddersfield/Cardiff/Fulham to start winning to send Southampton/Newcastle/Palace down - this in theory making 2019/20 easier to avoid relegation? (Clearly Palace are an exception to this as lots would want them to go down, and also vice versa so we still play them, but the concept applies)

I am not saying we are safe, far from it... just something to think about... and no matter how “mid-table” we become we will always be starting each season avoiding relegation.

I'm already there. I want the top 6 to win their games then those from 7th to 15th to lose and not too concerned about the bottom 5. As long as we continue to move up and towards 40 points I'm happy

warmleyseagull · Dec 30, 2018

Reinelt12 said:
I was putting a slightly different angle on what you were saying - not looking at where we can finish this season, but looking out for other results so that next seasons division is weaker and therefore less likely to be relegated.

I may be alone in looking at other results and hoping they will go “our way” (if only for fun, not because I am worried) - but I think the definition of “our way” is changing...

Get what you mean - I have dithered over whether Burnley 2-0 West Ham is what we wanted (ignoring fact that we play Hammers next). Would it have been nicer to knock a nail in a relegation candidate's coffin or are we more content to haul back a mid table rival? I tend to go to the fall-back solution: any intra lower 14 game is best as a draw simply because a point is lost.

Weststander · Dec 30, 2018

swindonseagull said:
Will Leeds get an automatic place in the Champions League as they are the biggest club in the world? In fact I still laugh when they lose and hope the other teams overtake them, Leeds in the play offs and lose........oh how I will laugh.......

BTW I hate Leeds

A widespread feeling in the football world.

Since I was very young, I’ve never minded Leeds. That would probably change if they cheated their way to a crucial PL win over us, or their fans trashed the Amex south stand.

Seaford by the sea · Dec 30, 2018

I believe we have too much quality to be concerned now about relegation, we have the majority of relegation favourites to play at home. Our target should really now be to get the highest finish the club has ever achieved in 12th place. The players can then rightly be declared the best ever.

Weststander · Dec 30, 2018

spence said:
Why worry about next season ? As far as this season goes we are safe. It's all about where we finish now. Just enjoy a relaxed no frills season. Won't happen often.

I agree with you.

Obviously a few more points are required from the remaining half a season, but we’re are sitting very pretty in contrast to a bunch of clubs with crap defences, scoring problems and no feeling of positive momentum. Plus virtually all of our signings over the last 20 months are coming good.

The bookies odds overwhelmingly concur with your confidence.

Knocky's Nose · Dec 30, 2018

Weststander said:
A widespread feeling in the football world.

....Leeds ....their fans trashed the Amex south stand.

I can see it now. Whippet and Pigeon shit everywhere, lumps of coal and discarded beef dripping butties all over the seats, and the mess their horses leave when they park them up is truly awful....

Makes me shudder at the thought... :lolol:

Blue Valkyrie · Dec 30, 2018

durrington gull said:
3 more wins and we’re safe - 34pts will be more than enough this season

Indeed.

Let's beat West Ham, Liverpool and Man Utd and get them as early as possible.

Knocky's Nose · Dec 30, 2018

Blue Valkyrie said:
Indeed.

Let's beat... Liverpool

Could you imagine... :banana:

Oh how I'd love that. Lineker... put that on MoTD - FIRST GAME... and let me crack a can of cold beer open, sit back, and smile so hard my ears meet in the middle on the top of my head.

trueblue · Dec 30, 2018

For this season, I’m very relaxed. With the squad we have now and the way the others are playing, it would be an astonishing collapse to get relegated.

However, next season the worrying begins again from day one. Every year, there are 14 clubs who are just one complacent season from relegation.

Iggle Piggle · Dec 30, 2018

There's about a 2% chance we will be relegated as things stand today. That about the same odds as Maggie Thatcher being on the next nifty pound note. It's about a 20% chance aliens will be proven in 2019.

We are safe as houses.

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