Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Register Log in

Does your vote really count?



symyjym

symyjym

Banned
Nov 2, 2009
13,138
Brighton / Hove actually
No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.
 




Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,662
West west west Sussex
election-silence-2015-vote-or-votenone.gif
 














SK1NT

SK1NT

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2003
8,731
Thames Ditton
Lib Dems... Now the facts are becoming clearer regarding brexit. Only way to get a 2nd referendum and try and revert this ****ing madness
 




symyjym

symyjym

Banned
Nov 2, 2009
13,138
Brighton / Hove actually
Lord Bracknell said:
Voting is about a lot more than making a decision.

It's all about taking responsibility. Or getting the blame.
Click to expand...

Our current democracy gives us the illusion of taking responsibility. The wave we are on is the wave we are on no matter who is on the front of the surfboard.

Do all the Blair voters feel any blame about him taking us to an illegal war, did all the Cameron voters feel blame for turning Libya into an ISIS hotbed and then moved onto his regime change in Syria disaster. These people leave a trail of destruction behind them and there is no guilt or blame left with the people who voted them in any more than they feel guilt or blame themselves.
 


pasty

pasty

A different kind of pasty
Jul 5, 2003
30,265
West, West, West Sussex
BensGrandad said:
Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.
Click to expand...

Good grief. If we all felt that way we'd be in a right old mess. You may as well say Brighton are never going to win the Premier League so it is a waste of time getting promoted to it.
 


hans kraay fan club

hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,276
Chandlers Ford
symyjym said:
No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.
Click to expand...

The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.
 




Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,001
The arse end of Hangleton
symyjym said:
Our current democracy gives us the illusion of taking responsibility. The wave we are on is the wave we are on no matter who is on the front of the surfboard.

Do all the Blair voters feel any blame about him taking us to an illegal war, did all the Cameron voters feel blame for turning Libya into an ISIS hotbed and then moved onto his regime change in Syria disaster. These people leave a trail of destruction behind them and there is no guilt or blame left with the people who voted them in any more than they feel guilt or blame themselves.
Click to expand...

I feel guilty for voting for Blair in 1997 - although I obviously voted for my local candidate than Blair himself.
 


Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,001
The arse end of Hangleton
hans kraay fan club said:
The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.
Click to expand...

Maybe they saw that the banana was black, bruised and past it's sell by date and that potatoes can be so versatile when cooked that the future could be bright ?
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,163
Goldstone
BensGrandad said:
Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.
Click to expand...
By success, I assume you mean a party with a chance of getting that one seat?

I of course understand your point, you might vote tactically to choose between the lesser of two evils in your area. But the number of votes for whomever comes third (and fourth etc) are counted and added to records, which helps get a sense of how the country feels and leads to change.
 




Audax

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,929
Uckfield
symyjym said:
No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.
Click to expand...

BensGrandad said:
Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.
Click to expand...

These are both flawed arguments.

[MENTION=14905]symyjym[/MENTION] - in your case, the flaw is in assuming that the people who don't vote feel the same way (in the same proportions) as those who do. That's unlikely to be the case - especially as the demographics of those who vote, vs those who don't, are often quite different. For example, the younger you are the more likely you are to back Remain. But the younger you are, the less likely you are to actually go out and vote. Hence, a young voter who elected not to vote in the referendum was more likely to be inclined towards Remain than the national average. So if younger voters had turned out in the same proportional numbers as older voters, it's plausible that Remain would have won the referendum instead.

More on point for the election ahead: Even voters in super-safe Tory seats can still make their anti-Tory voice heard by voting. Firstly, any vote that isn't a Tory vote will be reported in the national numbers. The more non-Tory votes, the better (if you are anti hard brexit). Secondly, any surge in proportional votes for second-placed anti-Brexit candidates will also be reported. Looking at where I live, in 2010 the Lib Dems polled 25.3%. In 2015 they polled 9.1%, with most of their losses being picked up by Ukip. While there's no hope of ousting the Tory MP, if the Lib Dems can get back up towards that 25% figure, and push the Ukip vote back down again, then that sort of shift will get noticed and may help moderate the Tory hardline on Brexit. Having said that, I don't expect the LDs to put any effort into Wealden. They're better off using their resources to attack seats they might actually win.

[MENTION=451]BensGrandad[/MENTION] - see above. Given Labour have been so wishy-washy on Brexit, any surge in votes for the LDs will get noticed. Doesn't matter whether they win seats, or come second, or come third. Any significant proportional increase in their vote share will be seen as being an anti-Brexit protest vote, and it will get noticed. Obviously voting for a candidate that actually stands a chance of winning is a more *valuable* vote, but no vote is ever actually wasted unless it doesn't get cast in the first place.

Likewise up in Scotland - if the SNP regional vote share dips significantly that will be seen as a protest against IndyRef2. Even if they only lost 1 or 2 seats, that dip in overall share would be seen as significant.


(For full disclosure, I grew up in Australia where voting is compulsory and a preferences system is used. I first moved to the UK in 2005, but didn't actually vote in an Election until 2015. But that was because I didn't understand UK politics, and didn't want to understand UK politics, until after the 2010 election. I value my vote and these days I will use it. Even though in Wealden I know my vote won't affect the overall result, I do know that it will still be recorded and have an effect, however small, on the interpretation of the overall results).
 


symyjym

symyjym

Banned
Nov 2, 2009
13,138
Brighton / Hove actually
hans kraay fan club said:
The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.
Click to expand...

When Cameron used the threat of WWIII with the Russians if we left Brexit it became a choice of 2 potatoes. If a potato and a potato are the choices the monkey would naturally pick the potato option and still be grateful.
 




The Clamp

The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
24,472
West is BEST
Lib Dem all the way this time I'm afraid. As much as it pains me they are the only chance we have of reversing Brexit and getting back to normal. And that is a pretty ****ing slim/non-existent chance.
 




BBassic

BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
12,309
BensGrandad said:
Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.
Click to expand...

I understand your point here but I disagree with it fundamentally.

My vote counts just as much as anyone else's. That it is usually cast for a party with a slim to none chance of getting into Government doesn't make it a waste. It makes it my choice, reflective of my beliefs.

The only wasted votes are the ones not cast at all however that, again, is a personal choice made by people who have the right to vote, or not, as they see fit.
 


symyjym

symyjym

Banned
Nov 2, 2009
13,138
Brighton / Hove actually
Audax said:
These are both flawed arguments.

[MENTION=14905]symyjym[/MENTION] - in your case, the flaw is in assuming that the people who don't vote feel the same way (in the same proportions) as those who do. That's unlikely to be the case - especially as the demographics of those who vote, vs those who don't, are often quite different. For example, the younger you are the more likely you are to back Remain. But the younger you are, the less likely you are to actually go out and vote. Hence, a young voter who elected not to vote in the referendum was more likely to be inclined towards Remain than the national average. So if younger voters had turned out in the same proportional numbers as older voters, it's plausible that Remain would have won the referendum instead.

More on point for the election ahead: Even voters in super-safe Tory seats can still make their anti-Tory voice heard by voting. Firstly, any vote that isn't a Tory vote will be reported in the national numbers. The more non-Tory votes, the better (if you are anti hard brexit). Secondly, any surge in proportional votes for second-placed anti-Brexit candidates will also be reported. Looking at where I live, in 2010 the Lib Dems polled 25.3%. In 2015 they polled 9.1%, with most of their losses being picked up by Ukip. While there's no hope of ousting the Tory MP, if the Lib Dems can get back up towards that 25% figure, and push the Ukip vote back down again, then that sort of shift will get noticed and may help moderate the Tory hardline on Brexit. Having said that, I don't expect the LDs to put any effort into Wealden. They're better off using their resources to attack seats they might actually win.
Click to expand...

I would say that your rebuttal is flawed because all the demographics are covered anyway apart from the apathetic ones of all ages and genders. Then you have to believe that there is any difference between a hard or soft Brexit and if it even really matters at all because it will be the same but different.
 


You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here