Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

beorhthelm said:

fortunatly, once the vulnerable and over 70s get vaccinated the hospitalisations will drop off sharply, and restrictions can ease. it'll only be politics that keep us from seeing other households at easter. (16-20m vaccinated by then)

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Is there available data that breaks down hospitalisations by age range?

Kinky Gerbils said:

As all your comments above, I hope you are right.

The big issue is that Sage has the Governments ear and they seem to be pushing for longer lockdown, this is back up by the nation seemingly OK to go along with what they say on it.



So if they say lockdown needed till June, thats were the public support will be.

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Easter is still around eleven weeks away I see little relaxation of the restrictions happening until then.

We have, however, been told repeatedly that vaccines are our way out of the cycle of lockdown and restriction. So if the vaccination programme proceeds as it should, then
by Easter there must be a significant relaxation. If not, after another two and a half months of lockdown, I think an increasingly fatigued and frustrated public will be increasingly less supportive or compliant.

Johnson is also likely to come under increasing pressure from influential backbenchers in his own party. The 1922 Committee will be pressing hard to timetable an exit strategy.

Kinky Gerbils said:

As all your comments above, I hope you are right.

The big issue is that Sage has the Governments ear and they seem to be pushing for longer lockdown, this is back up by the nation seemingly OK to go along with what they say on it.

So if they say lockdown needed till June, thats were the public support will be.

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Sage will have us in lockdown until 2022 (and i dont exaggerate, know programmes extending till then already). Johnson is instinctively liberal and has pushed back on their advice consistently (and to much complaint), and public support is somewhat flexible.

As far as I’m concerned, once the vaccine programme hits people in their 50s then my lockdown compliance ends.

Sussexscots said:

Easter is still around eleven weeks away I see little relaxation of the restrictions happening until then.

We have, however, been told repeatedly that vaccines are our way out of the cycle of lockdown and restriction. So if the vaccination programme proceeds as it should, then
by Easter there must be a significant relaxation. If not, after another two and a half months of lockdown, I think an increasingly fatigued and frustrated public will be increasingly less supportive or compliant.

Johnson is also likely to come under increasing pressure from influential backbenchers in his own party. The 1922 Committee will be pressing hard to timetable an exit strategy.

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I don't think the public will be any less supportive, maybe a few but the majority will still go on what Sage/Independent Sage/corners of the media are saying and the pressure will still be on him not to lift.

The narrative is already changing from the Vaccine is the way out to its part of the way out

beorhthelm said:

Sage will have us in lockdown until 2022 (and i dont exaggerate, know programmes extending till then already). Johnson is instinctively liberal and has pushed back on their advice consistently (and to much complaint), and public support is somewhat flexible.

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Yes, I have seen and I agree.

Do you think the support is flexible? if there is cases still around and the at risk are protected I still wager there will be a large group of people pushing for lockdown and the media asking why we are not in it.

RossyG said:

As far as I’m concerned, once the vaccine programme hits people in their 50s then my lockdown compliance ends.

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This I think will be interesting, I think a lot of people will be in this group - slightly contradicting on what I have said above, I wonder if it will be a lack of compliance that ends it rather than the Gov

beorhthelm said:

Sage will have us in lockdown until 2022 (and i dont exaggerate, know programmes extending till then already). Johnson is instinctively liberal and has pushed back on their advice consistently (and to much complaint), and public support is somewhat flexible.

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Johnsons liberal nature is the reason we are in such a mess with this virus with one of the highest death rates in the world. Hopefully this time he finally listens to the science.

RossyG said:

As far as I’m concerned, once the vaccine programme hits people in their 50s then my lockdown compliance ends.

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I think this will be the case for many people.

We're not meant to live like this.
I'm already finding the lack of human contact depressing. Every day is the same, it's utterly shit. I've never had anxiety in my life before all this, I can feel it f**king with my mind.

Billy the Fish said:

I think this will be the case for many people.

We're not meant to live like this.
I'm already finding the lack of human contact depressing. Every day is the same, it's utterly shit. I've never had anxiety in my life before all this, I can feel it f**king with my mind.

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Yes. People need hope and businesses need a clear path out.

The narrative is now subtly shifting from vaccines being our manumission to being just part of the solution. Which will go on ad infinitum.I honestly don't think people will wear it much beyond the Summer.

crodonilson said:

Johnsons liberal nature is the reason we are in such a mess with this virus with one of the highest death rates in the world. Hopefully this time he finally listens to the science.

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our liberal nature helps. country with highest rate is Belgium, because they have liberal attitude to rules too.

Sussexscots said:

Yes. People need hope and businesses need a clear path out.

The narrative is now subtly shifting from vaccines being our manumission to being just part of the solution. Which will go on ad infinitum.I honestly don't think people will wear it much beyond the Summer.

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will have negative effect to tell people its here forever, as some seem to be pushing. many will accept that, make their peace with consequences and do their utmost to carry on regardless. people comply because its short term.

beorhthelm said:

will have negative effect to tell people its here forever, as some seem to be pushing. many will accept that, make their peace with consequences and do their utmost to carry on regardless. people comply because its short term.

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So how would you respond to those in March saying not to start unlocking?

I see Israel is reporting that it appears that one shot is nowhere as effective as they'd have liked. Unsurprisingly.

The Fits said:

I see Israel is reporting that it appears that one shot is nowhere as effective as they'd have liked. Unsurprisingly.

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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....e-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

Kinky Gerbils said:

So how would you respond to those in March saying not to start unlocking?

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depends on the numbers, lets wait for them. if they are sharply down then important to start easing restrictions.

Kinky Gerbils said:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....e-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped

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Those quotes are very subjective. Would be interested to know if it stops deaths, hospitalisations and serious illness. That's the whole reason we're waiting longer for the 2nd jab

beorhthelm said:

depends on the numbers, lets wait for them. if they are sharply down then important to start easing restrictions.

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...nst-rush-reopen-covid-lockdown-say-ministers/

Sorry, I just don’t see it happening at any speed - there’s no indication we will be back to any warped normal till June/July -

ive literally been out TWICE in 11 months. Been living with father for several years after he had an accident and needed to be monitored (literally saved his life 7 times after he kept getting Sepsis through not drinking or feeding himself- but thats another story) He is 82 now and on the extreme vulnerability list but had his 2nd vacination last week . Unfortunately he's basically given up the will to do anything now - watches TV 15 hours a day and its a struggle to even have a conversation with him. The TV is his world and he does not care about anything else.

Imagine feeling guilty for wanting to do something simple like go on a bus ride just for the hell of it, worried that i might bring the infection back with me. Well time to put myself first now...I dont have a garden but what the hell, i'll go to a garden centre for a few hours How dare i? Will i be fined?

Kinky Gerbils said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...nst-rush-reopen-covid-lockdown-say-ministers/

Sorry, I just don’t see it happening at any speed - there’s no indication we will be back to any warped normal till June/July -

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thats behind a paywall , can you post the article extract?

giveusfalmerplease said:

thats behind a paywall , can you post the article extract?

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The public does not back a rapid easing of lockdown measures, ministers believe as they plan a cautious timetable for the lifting of restrictions.

Early March has been earmarked for moving the first areas out of lockdown – but only into the toughest tiers, with little further easing expected by Easter on April 4, The Telegraph understands.

It also emerged on Tuesday that the return of schools could be phased, with children in some parts of the country going back sooner than their peers elsewhere.

Tuesday saw the UK record its deadliest day of the coronavirus pandemic so far, with the daily toll reaching 1,610 deaths.

However, the number of new cases is falling, with 302,802 infections recorded in the last week – down 22.3 per cent on the previous seven days. The latest number of people admitted to hospital is 3,634, the lowest daily number since January 2.

Swathes of London have also seen sharp falls in case numbers, including the east of the capital, which was particularly badly hit by the second wave.

A Whitehall source said the prevailing mood on lifting lockdown was to take decisions steadily to avoid having to reimpose restrictions later, adding: "There is light at the end of the tunnel [from the vaccine rollout], so the question is... is it worth extending the tunnel a bit to get it right?"

Another Government insider said the aim was to "start in higher tiers with a view of only going one way. It's about establishing a reopening pathway. If you want certainty, you have to play it longer".

The insider added: "There are quite a lot of industries where if they reopen and close, like pubs, they incur big costs."

Reflecting the cautious approach, Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, said on Tuesday that it is "likely" there will be "some sort of regional separation of interventions" for the return of schools after the national lockdown.

She said that while the "ambition" to open schools next month remained, it was subject to the caveat that the country has recently seen high Covid infection rates.

Ministers are said to be wary of damaging high public confidence in their management of this stage of the pandemic. A YouGov poll this week showed that 61 per cent of Britons feel the Government is handling the vaccine rollout well, up from 41 per cent earlier this month.

Another poll conducted at the beginning of the month showed that almost 80 per cent of the public backed a lockdown, and ministers are understood to feel that this justifies a cautious exit from restrictions.

However, a senior Government source insisted that polling would play no part in the decision on easing restrictions, saying it would be based on case rates, hospitalisations, deaths, transmission rates and the vaccine rollout.

There is growing pressure on the Government from Conservatives in the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group (CRG) to set out a clear roadmap from restrictions, which the MPs argue are bad for people's health and jobs.

Steve Baker, the deputy chairman of the group, said: "Businesses and individuals desperately need hope and the opportunity to plan our recovery. That's why we need to know our road to recovery as soon as possible."

Mr Baker said the forecast for the vaccine rollout, which pinpoints February 15 as the target date by which the 15 million most vulnerable Britons will have received a jab, should be used as the basis for plans to lift restrictions. He said this should commence three weeks later, on March 8, when the last of those vaccinated in the first wave will have achieved a significant level of immunity against Covid.

Concerns are also growing about the disparities between the effect of the restrictions on different communities across the country. New research from the Trades Union Congress suggests black and minority ethnic workers have been hit 26 times worse by the employment crisis sparked by the pandemic than white workers.

The Government is examining options to deal with Covid job losses and will unveil plans to retrain the nation later this week. Ministers are preparing to announce a significant expansion of student loans, meaning adults can take them out to fund vocational and technical courses as well as undergraduate degrees.

While some quarters of the Government are looking ahead to the crisis recovery plan, there were warnings that some industirues face a longer period of uncertainty.

One minister said music festivals were unlikely to take place this summer, adding: "I don't think Glastonbury will happen, I really don't. I think if Glastonbury were to happen they would need the assurances very soon, which I don't think they are going to get."

Given the numbers still circulating in Israel despite being massively ahead of us in vaccinating the vulnerable I think the government might have to backtrack in keeping lockdown in all but rural regions where the pressure on the NHS and cases circulating is much lower until 3 weeks after the all of the most vulnerable groups have been vaccinated. This would be early June by my estimates if everything goes to plan. Also we.must get more of the BAME population.vsccinated to exit lockdown, they are disproportionately affected by this virus and yet seems to be much lower uptakes in these communities which will potentially only further enhance the inequality between these groups and white British population.