[Politics] How long can Johnson survive as PM?

zefarelly said:

I keep saying it, he'll never resign, he'll possibly be forced out.

However with such a large majority and hundreds of otherwise unemployable persons masquerading as MP's he'll garner enough support to cling on as long as he wants. . . the fence post tortoise may well still be stuck up there for the next election unless someone can summons a credible opposition leader.

Click to expand...

nicko31 said:

Think its fair to say 148 votes against was more than the PM was expecting yesterday

How long will he last? Or will it all blow over like so many times before?

Click to expand...

Kinky Gerbils said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s re-elected In 24

Click to expand...

Kalimantan Gull said:

I also wouldn't be shocked. There are a lot of people who may dislike the Tories on the whole but are personally extremely loyal to him for delivering Brexit. Add that to the lifelong Tories who hate him but couldn't vote for anyone else and it's possibly enough for a win, albeit with a very low vote share.

One consideration is that conditions don't seem quite right to get the kind of tactical voting on the left we saw pre coalition. Take my county of Cornwall as an example. In 2015 the Tories got 43% of the vote county wide and won 6 out of 6 seats. As recently as 2005 the Libdems swept all five seats with 44% county wide. After the coalition the Libdem vote collapsed to its worst share since 1970 and a lot of their votes went to Labour. They each got 20-25% of the vote in the past three elections with the greens taking some significant votes as well. I don't think Labour can win here, outside of the Truro and Falmouth seat, but as they're in second place in most constituencies they are the most obvious choice for a 'tactical' vote on the surface, where really its the Libdems who have the most chance of winning long term. It'll take a few more elections to get back to that point though. I imagine that's repeated in a lot of places nationwide, the coalition really damaged the progressive alliance on the left that's needed to beat the Tories under our current system.

Click to expand...

Thunder Bolt said:

The No Confidence vote was worse than Theresa May's in 2018 and she was gone within 7 months. Apparently the 1922 committee can allow another vote within 12 months but don't usually.

Click to expand...

Kinky Gerbils said:

So far Hunt is the only one to really put his hat in to challenge and he would be awful as well.

Click to expand...

Thunder Bolt said:

Cornwall believed the lie that the government would continue to give them the regional funds they received from the EU £100 million, and it turns out they are only getting approx £3 million. There may well be a backlash.
https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/19571108.cornwall-get-just-3m-replacement-funding-leaving-eu/

Click to expand...

Kalimantan Gull said:

Quite. But again, if getting the Tories out is the overriding concern, how do you choose who to vote for if Labour got 25% last time and the Libdems 20%? It was easier in 1997 when the Libs were a hair behind and Labour nowhere.

Click to expand...

MJsGhost said:

He'll 'choose' to go only when told by those who keep the trough topped that he can't dip his snout in it anymore unless he goes.

They will tell him to go when it's looking like he'll lose them the GE if he stays, but there's a chance someone else could turn it around. If it's 50:50 whether or not it makes a difference, they'll stick with Boris as he'll be even more in hock to them and their interests.

I'd say it will all come to a head after the conference season - he'll limp on (though full of bluster as per) as a lame duck for a while yet, spouting off about getting the job done, with a tremendous mandate to lead through his terrific, clear victory in the vote of no confidence.

It will be a very long road back for the Tories if he leads them into the next GE - the country has had enough

Click to expand...