Claim of guesswork followed by guesswork ?
I did end it by saying I was happy to admit to not being an expert…
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FAO Amex Mask-Dodgers (Heads Up: NSFW)
- Thread starter Tom Hark Preston Park
- Start date
I did end it by saying I was happy to admit to not being an expert…
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Wardy's twin
Well-known member
- Oct 21, 2014
- 8,434
Fair comment…..but if (big if) we end up with a mild version in mass circulation it’s possibly going to be little different to a host of other illnesses the vulnerable are far more susceptible to turning serious.
Completely agree re mixed messages, policing and lies, and would further add the selfish cohort who don’t give a toss about anyone else
Agreed - but as you said we should wait to see how mild it is before jumping the gun. My hope is that it is milder ( I take no pleasure in the controls ) and that we can normalise our lives and more importantly the lives of my kids and grandchildren. I might even get back to the Amex....
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,830
HAhahahah haha hah a AHAHhAhAh aHhA
Our 'strategy'. Mate, we never had a strategy. Are you genuinely saying that these donkey's that lead us actually intended it to work like this? I bet you believe every wonder goal from a cross or corner was intended. You are that kid in school that would fall off the roof, get their pants caught on the gutter, causing them to flip and have their fall broken, landing miraculously on their feet in shock and fear... to shout moments later 'just as I planned!'
If only our government were actually capable of coming up with and executing a strategy. No my friend. They focussed their energies on changing the law and robbing the absolute shite out of us. THAT was the only plan they enacted.
Klaas
I've changed this
- Nov 1, 2017
- 2,562
I've said this before, but the confidence with which you broadcast your made up theories as more or less fact, is breathtaking.
W.C.
New member
- Oct 31, 2011
- 4,927
Good morning from Japan, where more of the population is vaccinated than the UK's yet everyone continues to wear masks, wash/sanitise hands and ventilate well. There's never been a lockdown either. Yesterday there was one death I think and new cases are almost invisible on the graphs. Still, people haven't been happy with how the government handled things at times, but I wonder in what parallel universe you live, where you can describe the UK as 'incredibly successful'??
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
I’ve been wearing a mask religiously and now have a stinking cold
Bumping this over...
It does look like having high levels of infection helps with Omicron tbf
You have all the information, other than the critical one which is time, so are you drawing the right conclusions here?
Likelihood - The virus will mutate and get weaker over time, is neither a certainty or a linear relationship. It is perfectly possible for the virus to mutate and become more aggressive in the short term and for your weakness over time relationship to still be valid. How long is the short term here is it measured in weeks, months, years, decades or are these things not discussed in clinical trials.
Impact - If your statement is correct we may not have to concern ourselves with wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing. If somehow based on your sampling, the mutations result in higher infection levels and more serious cases, the impact is more people will become seriously ill and or die.
You can get a subjective measure of risk here as Risk = Impact*Likelihood
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,189
There's a vital step missing in your equation about heads and tails. You're right that every mutation of the virus has an equal chance of being "good" or "bad". But there are millions, literally millions, of mutations of the virus every day. I suspect that most infected people have at least one mutation every day as the virus replicates itself like mad. The crucial factor is whether those mutations go on to propagate and dominate.
In most cases, the mutation doesn't get anywhere, it is killed before it ever leaves the host. In most of the survivors, it doesn't get anywhere because it leaves the host and dies, or leaves the host and infects someone else but dies out under the weight of other variants. For whatever reason, you don't as a rule get two variants side by side in the same person. One variant will die out.
So the mutations that survive and become successful aren't purely random. Their creation is random, but their survival is based on shedloads of other, non-random factors. And it's for that reason that they reckon viruses tend, by and large, to get more transmissible but less serious as time goes by, because being both more transmissible and less likely to kill the host makes it more likely to survive. A virus that doesn't spread well, and a virus that kills its host or makes him too ill to get out, is less likely to survive simply because it is outnumbered by other variants.
portlock seagull
Why? Why us?
- Jul 28, 2003
- 17,071
Very Prime Ministerial!