Is Omicron our saviour?

Hugo Rune · Nov 28, 2021

So far, scientists know that Omicron is highly transmissible. However, they are also reporting
"extremely mild symptoms".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

If this variant continues to be extremely mild, even in vulnerable people, it could become the dominant strain and finally relegate Covid to common cold seriousness if it takes over completely.

Fingers crossed but as well as having the potential to kill millions and millions; Omicron could be our saviour and finally put an end to this global pandemic.

Poojah · Nov 28, 2021

Hugo Rune said:
So far, scientists know that Omicron is highly transmissible. However, they are also reporting
"extremely mild symptoms".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

If this variant continues to be extremely mild, even in vulnerable people, it could become the dominant strain and finally relegate Covid to common cold seriousness if it takes over completely.

Fingers crossed but as well as having the potential to kill millions and millions; Omicron could be our saviour and finally put an end to this global pandemic.

Oddly, I had this very same thought earlier. Extremely transmissible to the point of dominance yet clinically insignificant could be a good thing, a very good thing in fact.

The potential flaw in that logic, I pondered, is if it was to then mutate back to something equally more transmissible but far more deadly. But then I don’t know anywhere enough about these things to properly comprehend whether that’s a scenario that could play out.

Hugo Rune · Nov 28, 2021

Poojah said:
But then I don’t know anywhere enough about these things to properly comprehend whether that’s a scenario that could play out.

Neither do I! [emoji3526]

But I was wondering why the common cold has not mutated into a killer virus? My assumption is that it’s evolution baby, we know that viruses need living hosts, they are not in the business of killing people, their aim is simply to replicate, corpses are ineffective carriers of virus.

Swansman · Nov 28, 2021

Megatron, Optimus Prime, Omicron - any saviour works for me.

Kinky Gerbil · Nov 28, 2021

I’m really interested in how much and how wide this has already spread.

Taking the UK alone we have cases In Essex/Nottingham/Cardiff - not really close to each other - if it is really wide spread and we’ve not seen an increase in deaths that would be some evidence the vaccine holds up on it

Also, I wonder if another country spotted it and kept quiet

Bozza · Nov 28, 2021

Hugo Rune said:
So far, scientists know that Omicron is highly transmissible. However, they are also reporting
"extremely mild symptoms".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

If this variant continues to be extremely mild, even in vulnerable people, it could become the dominant strain and finally relegate Covid to common cold seriousness if it takes over completely.

Fingers crossed but as well as having the potential to kill millions and millions; Omicron could be our saviour and finally put an end to this global pandemic.

But most people get "extremely mild symptoms" with the previous variants.

Unfortunately the minority who get "major symptoms" can become a problem for health services pretty quickly.

In most cases if you had to choose...

- A variant that retains the same transmissibility but causes more severe symptoms, or
- A variant that has higher transmissibility but causes the same symptoms

...you'd go for the former since the latter can overload health systems far more quickly.

Anyway, like everyone else, I'm crossing my fingers that we get some king od magic reduction in the overall harm caused by this new kid on the block.

burnee54 · Nov 28, 2021

Hugo Rune said:
So far, scientists know that Omicron is highly transmissible. However, they are also reporting
"extremely mild symptoms".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

If this variant continues to be extremely mild, even in vulnerable people, it could become the dominant strain and finally relegate Covid to common cold seriousness if it takes over completely.

Fingers crossed but as well as having the potential to kill millions and millions; Omicron could be our saviour and finally put an end to this global pandemic.

Hey Hugo
Do you mean The Brightonomicon?

atomised · Nov 28, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
I’m really interested in how much and how wide this has already spread.

Taking the UK alone we have cases In Essex/Nottingham/Cardiff - not really close to each other - if it is really wide spread and we’ve not seen an increase in deaths that would be some evidence the vaccine holds up on it

Also, I wonder if another country spotted it and kept quiet

I read somewhere yesterday that the Essex and Nottingham cases were linked in some way.

beorhthelm · Nov 28, 2021

atomised said:
I read somewhere yesterday that the Essex and Nottingham cases were linked in some way.

on same flight weren't they?
i recall something about the Hong Kong case, tracing determined they most likely caught it in the airport as no contacts before then had it.

A1X · Nov 28, 2021

Hugo Rune · Nov 28, 2021

burnee54 said:
Hey Hugo
Do you mean The Brightonomicon?

10/10 [emoji122][emoji122][emoji122][emoji122][emoji122]

Yoda · Nov 29, 2021

Big IF, but if the early data coming out of South Africa continues along this path, then yes. Although the area where Dr Coetzee is based apparently has a higher than average take up of vaccination than the rest of South Africa.

On the flip side, Rudo Mathivha (Head of the ICU at Soweto’s Baragwanath hospital has been quoted as saying "We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with Covid-19. Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care." About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated.

It could just be that vaccine escape they are worried about is only infection based, but looks like the vaccine is having an even better response to the virus.

Hugo Rune · Dec 11, 2021

Well it’s clear that Omicron is a few levels up from Delta in terms of transmissibility.

However, this sort Omicron data (no matter how statistically insignificant) does at least give a tiny bit of hope that it could be less severe than Delta.

“And despite the infectiousness of the new Omicron strain, not a single one of 1,265 cases so far recorded in the UK has gone to hospital or resulted in any deaths.” Mail Online comment section.

Terry Butcher Tribute Act · Dec 11, 2021

It may be our saviour long term but in the very short term it's going to absolutely destroy a lot of people by wrecking Christmas unfortunately

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Hugo Rune · Dec 11, 2021

Terry Butcher Tribute Act said:
It may be our saviour long term but in the very short term it's going to absolutely destroy a lot of people by wrecking Christmas unfortunately

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Fear of Omicron certainly will.

What is happening now though is that scores of 20’s-40’s are getting Delta and getting very ill from it. The double doses are expiring with the booster not being rolled out quick enough.

Thousands of people will have their Christmas wrecked by catching Covid, but the Delta version rather than the new strain.

Hugo Rune · Dec 11, 2021

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) model published today has a best case scenario of 1/119 Omicron infections being hospitalised.

Fingers crossed but we’re currently on 0/1,265.

South Africa have had 4 huge spikes in Covid-19 infection but only 3 huge spikes in deaths. They are still waiting for the Omicron deaths spikes:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Hugo Rune · Dec 11, 2021

Jan 14th 2021 - South Africa:

Infections: 18,668 Deaths: 712

Dec 9th 2021 - South Africa:

Infections: 22,388 Deaths: 22

Fully vaccinated population: 25.8%

Hugo Rune · Dec 30, 2021

30th Jan 2021: UK

Infections - 183,037
Deaths - 57
Patients in hospital with Covid - 8426

31st Jan 2020: UK

Infections - 49,510
Deaths - 820
Patients in hospital with Covid - 26,577

dazzer6666 · Dec 30, 2021

Hugo Rune said:
30th Jan 2021: UK

Infections - 183,037
Deaths - 57
Patients in hospital with Covid - 8426

31st Jan 2020: UK

Infections - 49,510
Deaths - 820
Patients in hospital with Covid - 26,577

Think you mean December…..

Harry Wilson's tackle · Dec 30, 2021

Bozza said:
But most people get "extremely mild symptoms" with the previous variants.

Unfortunately the minority who get "major symptoms" can become a problem for health services pretty quickly.

<snip>.

Hospitalizations are starting to go crazy. Deaths don't need to follow for the impact to be massive if this carries on

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