[Albion] Albion 2021/22 v 2020/21 like-for-like

Bozza · Nov 23, 2021

As I started this to contribute to another thread a few weeks ago, I'll keep it going. It's no Giraffe tracker, obviously, but may provide an interesting comparison.

As a reminder, the relegated/promoted sides are swapped in the following sequence:

18th Fulham = 1st Norwich
19th West Brom = 2nd Watford
20th Sheff Utd = 3rd Brentford

Game-by-game
Burnley 1 - 2 Albion....../ Burnley 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 2 - 0 Watford....../ Albion 1 - 1 West Brom
Albion 0 - 2 Everton....../ Albion 0 - 0 Everton
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion..../ Sheff Utd 1 - 0 Albion
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester..../ Albion 1 -2 Leicester
Palace 1 - 1 Albion......./ Palace 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal....../ Albion 0 - 1 Arsenal
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion....../ Fulham 0 - 0 Albion
Albion 1 - 4 Man City...../ Albion 3 - 2 Man City
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion..../ Liverpool 0 - 1 Albion
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle..../ Albion 3 - 0 Newcastle
Aston Villa 2 - 0 Albion../ Aston Villa 1 - 2 Albion

Overall
2021/22 P12 W4 D5 L3 F12 A14 Pts 17
2020/21 P12 W4 D5 L3 F13 A10 Pts 17

lasvegan · Nov 23, 2021

Might want to check your 20/21 results…

Bozza · Nov 23, 2021

lasvegan said:
Might want to check your 20/21 results…

I just have - what have I got wrong?

Stat Brother · Nov 23, 2021

It doesn't matter who's playing, the turn over of the opposition players, teams, money spent etc.

GPotts ability to be identical season after season is quite something.
Obviously a bit of a shame by virtue of where the baseline is, but impressive nevertheless.

Bozza · Nov 23, 2021

I'm not sure it's needed, but I guess this illustrates how the good start to the season has petered out, in that in each of the last four fixtures we did better last season than this.

That does include Man City and Liverpool, obviously, which some may categorise as forunate/flukes/lucky, but we also failed to beat two sides who were better last season than this.

Dick Knights Mumm · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
I'm not sure it's needed, but I guess this illustrates how the good start to the season has petered out, in that in each of the last four fixtures we did better last season than this.

I am hoping that this is our inevitable poor run and we will return to form over the coming weeks. I fear we have not had the poor run yet .........

Bob! · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
As I started this to contribute to another thread a few weeks ago, I'll keep it going. It's no Giraffe tracker, obviously, but may provide an interesting comparison.

As a reminder, the relegated/promoted sides are swapped in the following sequence:

18th Fulham = 1st Norwich
19th West Brom = 2nd Watford
20th Sheff Utd = 3rd Brentford

Game-by-game
Burnley 1 - 2 Albion....../ Burnley 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 2 - 0 Watford....../ Albion 1 - 1 West Brom
Albion 0 - 2 Everton....../ Albion 0 - 0 Everton
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion..../ Sheff Utd 1 - 0 Albion
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester..../ Albion 1 -2 Leicester
Palace 1 - 1 Albion......./ Palace 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal....../ Albion 0 - 1 Arsenal
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion....../ Fulham 0 - 0 Albion
Albion 1 - 4 Man City...../ Albion 3 - 2 Man City
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion..../ Liverpool 0 - 1 Albion
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle..../ Albion 3 - 0 Newcastle
Aston Villa 2 - 0 Albion../ Aston Villa 1 - 2 Albion

Overall
2021/22 P12 W4 D5 L3 F12 A14 Pts 17
2020/21 P12 W4 D5 L3 F13 A10 Pts 17

Are you able to add the results we are up against over the next few weeks please?

Eric the meek · Nov 23, 2021

It's an interesting comparison. Our form obviously began well, and then dipped against all teams, both top 6 and 'teams like Brighton'.
12 games is a sufficient number to be able to identify a few trends.

Earlier this season (I think after the Brentford game), Warren commented that we are now beating the teams around us. Well, that has come to an end, with just two points from Norwich, Newcastle and Villa. Why?

Just as we are a work in progress and hopefully on an upward trajectory, other teams will also be works in progress, with a variety of trajectories.
Some of those trajectories will be more upward than ours, perhaps in part due to a constant pipeline of new manager bounces.

As is often the case on here, we may be able to identify the problem, but it's not so easy identifying the solution.

Bozza · Nov 23, 2021

Bob! said:
Are you able to add the results we are up against over the next few weeks please?

The next five. We're going to have to go some to keep pace with how we did last year...

Albion 2 - 0 Leeds
West Ham 2 - 2 Albion
Southampton 1 - 2 Albion
Albion 1 - 0 Spurs
Albion 3 - 3 Wolves

Swansman · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
The next five. We're going to have to go some to keep pace with how we did last year...

Albion 2 - 0 Leeds
West Ham 2 - 2 Albion
Southampton 1 - 2 Albion
Brighton 1 - 0 Spurs
Brighton 3 - 3 Wolves

Definitely tough...

For each of GPs seasons as a manager his team has either ended up better or the same as they were half into the season so will be interesting to have a look after.. whatever half of 38 is.

Bold Seagull · Nov 23, 2021

I'm sure that is an enjoyable exercise, but of course form ebbs and flows for all sides across a season, so just matching them up from a year ago is just what it is, random. I'm not sure what it tells you really. Heart of the matter is, this is our best start to a PL season, 2nd best in our history. Think we all feel the deflation of not having kicked on that little bit with games against Norwich, Newcastle and Villa in particular, but there is still lots to feel positive about.

2021/22
P12 W4 D5 L3 PTS17 pos.9th
2020/21
P12 W2 D4 L6 PTS10 pos.16th
2019/20
P12 W4 D3 L5 PTS15 pos.11th
2018/19
P12 W4 D2 L6 PTS14 pos.12th
2017/18
P12 W4 D4 L4 PTS16 pos.9th

1982/83
P12 W4 D3 L5 PTS15 pos.14th
1981/82
P12 W4 D6 L2 PTS18 pos.7th
1980/81
P12 W2 D4 L6 PTS10 pos.18th*
1979/80
P12 W2 D3 L7 PTS7 pos.22nd*

* (note given 3 pts for a win rather than 2 at the time...)

Bozza · Nov 23, 2021

Bold Seagull said:
I'm sure that is an enjoyable exercise, but of course form ebbs and flows for all sides across a season, so just matching them up from a year ago is just what it is, random. I'm not sure what it tells you really.

I did it because at some point last season, someone had done the "After X games last season, this is where we were", in order to make a season v season comparison. Someone else pointed out that it may not be an entirely fair comparison, as that approach takes no account of the relative strengths of the opponents faced, so a better way of comparing is to look at games against the same opposition in each season.

Now, clearly that isn't absolutely like-for-like because...

- Three teams go, and three new teams arrive
- Teams may be generally better/worse in one season than another
- Teams go through periods of form, lose players to injury etc, so may be better or worse at different points of s given season.

...but it is what it is.

Ultimately though, it probably just tells you I don't use my time very well.

Bold Seagull said:
Heart of the matter is, this is our best start to a PL season, 2nd best in our history. Think we all feel the deflation of not having kicked on that little bit with games against Norwich, Newcastle and Villa in particular, but there is still lots to feel positive about.

Let's be clear about one thing: I'm not presenting this as some sort of Debbie Downer, looking to be mopey about our results and drag others down with me.

I'm as chilled now about our prospects as I was after our flying start. I've said repeatedly on here that I don't believe we've improved dramatically from last year, and I'm now not suggesting we've turned to shit. We're a very good footballing side who can stand toe-to-toe with most sides in this division, and I don't even need to add "on our day" to qualify that.

I'd like us to score one or two more though, if I'm allowed to be greedy momentarily.

Bold Seagull · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
I did it because at some point last season, someone had done the "After X games last season, this is where we were", in order to make a season v season comparison. Someone else pointed out that it may not be an entirely fair comparison, as that approach takes no account of the relative strengths of the opponent so a better way of comparing is to look at games against the same opposition in each season.

Now, clearly that isn't absolutely like-for-like because...

- Three teams go, and three new teams arrive
- Teams may be generally better/worse in one season than another
- Teams go through periods of form, lose players to injury etc, so may be better or worse at different points of s given season.

...but it is what it is.

Ultimately though, it probably just tells you I don't use my time very well.

Let's be clear about one thing: I'm not presenting this as some sort of Debbie Downer, looking to be mopey about our results and drag others down with me.

I'm as chilled now about our prospects as I was after our flying start. I've said repeatedly on here that I don't believe we've improved dramatically from last year, and I'm now not suggesting we've turned to shit. We're a very good footballing side who can stand toe-to-toe with most sides in this division, and I don't even need to add "on our day" to qualify that.

I'd like us to score one or two more though, if I'm allowed to be greedy momentarily.

Completely appreciate it for what it is similar to appreciating the Bedwetting thread, so perhaps a little reactive with my response. I'm very caught up in where we are and given this is the first time we've ever been in the top flight for 5 consecutive seasons, and with it being such a good start, bit dismayed with how quickly people turn against the side, whether selection / tactics, recruitment, the manager, the owner etc. not that was what you intended of course, just generally across the posts since Saturday.

Shropshire Seagull · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
The next five. We're going to have to go some to keep pace with how we did last year...

Albion 2 - 0 Leeds
West Ham 2 - 2 Albion
Southampton 1 - 2 Albion
Brighton 1 - 0 Spurs
Brighton 3 - 3 Wolves

Wow - that's unbeaten with 11 points from five games !!
10 for and 6 against with two clean sheets will also be hard to replicate too

We'll do well to get half that [5 points] this time round [a win and 2 draws - maybe]

Terry Butcher Tribute Act · Nov 23, 2021

I'm more worried about our performances than results to be honest. Last year was 'crap results, good performances'.

This year is a bit more of a mixed bag now the wins have fizzled our, but an hour at Anfield is doing an awful lot of heavy lifting when analysing performances. I don't recall often thinking we've been very good.

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

lasvegan · Nov 23, 2021

Bozza said:
I just have - what have I got wrong?

Nothing, l didn’t read through correctly and counted first 12 games… :facepalm:

The Fits · Nov 23, 2021

Anyone who was at Burnley would be a little worried.

AZ Gull · Nov 23, 2021

This is an interesting comparison, but I'm not sure that there are any insightful conclusions that can be drawn. We already know that last season's results were somewhat "strange" in that we failed to win ANY of the 8 matches against the 4 teams that finished below us, and yet we won at Anfield and beat City and Spurs at home.

The sequence of fixtures can also result in some strange quirks - I already pointed out on here, prior to the game at Norwich, that the last time we played each of the next six fixtures (ie A v Norwich, H v City, A v Liverpool, H v Newcastle, A v Villa and H v Leeds) we had won EVERY match. We were never going to replicate that (we'd be virtually safe already if we had!) and it's possible we'll end up not winning a single one.

On the other hand, there is a run of 11 fixtures coming up from the middle of next month (H v Wolves) where we didn't win a single game last season (if you use [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]'s method for substituting the promoted teams for the relegated teams).

I think the moral of the story is - football is largely random.

:shrug:

Bozza · Nov 27, 2021

Updated...

Game-by-game
Burnley 1 - 2 Albion....../ Burnley 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 2 - 0 Watford....../ Albion 1 - 1 West Brom
Albion 0 - 2 Everton....../ Albion 0 - 0 Everton
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion..../ Sheff Utd 1 - 0 Albion
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester..../ Albion 1 -2 Leicester
Palace 1 - 1 Albion......./ Palace 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal....../ Albion 0 - 1 Arsenal
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion....../ Fulham 0 - 0 Albion
Albion 1 - 4 Man City...../ Albion 3 - 2 Man City
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion..../ Liverpool 0 - 1 Albion
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle..../ Albion 3 - 0 Newcastle
Aston Villa 2 - 0 Albion../ Aston Villa 1 - 2 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Leeds......../ Albion 2 - 0 Leeds

Overall
2021/22 P13 W4 D6 L3 F12 A14 Pts 18
2020/21 P13 W5 D5 L3 F15 A10 Pts 20

Bozza · Dec 1, 2021

Bozza said:
The next five. We're going to have to go some to keep pace with how we did last year...

Albion 2 - 0 Leeds
West Ham 2 - 2 Albion

A win tonight gets us back on track with last season. Easy peasy.

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[Albion] Albion 2021/22 v 2020/21 like-for-like

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