[Albion] How we've got better this season - staying on the front foot more?

Kalimantan Gull · Nov 9, 2021

This post, made a few days ago in the 'Potter's flaw' thread, and others in the same thread, got me thinking. I thought I'd make a new thread on it because I find it interesting how previous narratives can be hard to shift.

Taybha said:
..... we do seem ultra vulnerable after taking a lead in games, we seem to almost instantly revert to a different set of rules which must be down to the boss I suppose, the amount of times we fail to score that 2nd goal is astonishing considering how on top we usually are when we go one up.

I get you try to keep it tight for a bit after scoring but we often sink so far back we just invite the inevitable, I doubt Potter knows this and will be over the moon I've pointed his flaw out ready for our next game.

Last season this happened a lot, no doubt at all, we scored, sat back immediately and inevitably conceded. So I'm not picking on this poster, but wanted to point out how that narrative is actually far weaker this season. The reality is that Saturday against Newcastle was the very first time this season in 14 league and cup games that we have lost the lead when ahead. The first time. We have only conceded two goals while in front the entire season.

I've started to attribute our better results this season to not doing dropping back after scoring anywhere near as quickly as we did last year, to staying on the front foot for far longer, keeping our shape better even when the opposition is trying to push us back. In 4 of our 11 league games we have scored two goals in a row without the opposition scoring, yet two (or more) unanswered goals only happened 5 times in the entirety of last season.

Last year we lost leads on 15 occasions in league and cup, once every 3 games on average. Its clear how the narrative developed, we all saw it happen over and over again. So once in 14 games is a significant improvement - yet old narrative can be hard to shift. Saturday brought it all back and can make us feel like nothing has changed.

On the other side of the coin we have equalised when behind 5 times already in league and cup , winning 1 and drawing 3 of the four games that happened in. Compare that to the whole of last season when we came from behind just 10 times, only winning 1 of those games, drawing 4 and ending up losing 5 anyway. On those occasions, we worked hard, scored an equaliser and sat back soon after, eventually conceding again and putting the hard work to naught. This year that hasn't happened yet.

True, it was hard for Palace to get back in front after our 95th minute equaliser, but there is another stat. This season we've scored 3 and conceded 0 'significant' goals in the last 15 minutes plus injury time (i.e. not considering either of the two late goals in the City game as 'significant' to the result as they held a three goal lead at the time). Last season we scored late goals at about the same rate, 9 significant goals at that stage of the game - one every five games or so - but conceded more than we scored, 12 goals by the opposition. On three occasions we scored in the last five minutes or injury time only for the opposition to score again even later. So far this year, none conceded.

It all collectively suggests more resilience and less of the falling back into defence when we are ahead or have just equalised, which can often lead to complete backs to the wall defending in the final stages of a game. Getting ahead and staying there. Not conceding late goals. Scoring twice unanswered. Coming from behind and getting rewards for that. All of which we're doing better than last season. Saturday may have felt like the continuation of our narrative from last season, but the stats suggest it could just be more of a blip* - and may speak to the more subtle ways that Potter is changing our fortunes.

*I am fully aware that the football gods will frown at this thread, and ensure it will be bounced when we concede an equaliser or late winner against Villa. And Leeds. And West Ham. And Southampton. And Spurs. But I hold out hope they will instead applaud the statistical trawling I've done, and reward us with a win again - it's been a while. Wolves?

Machiavelli · Nov 9, 2021

I'm not sure we sat back last season, and don't think we did on Saturday either. We certainly did under CH, especially in the last 15 minutes when ahead (and, on a few occasions, for the entire game). That said, we did play deeper -- 'low block; -- under CH in general.
My problem on Saturday was that we were too passive, not that we sat too deep. But interesting stats, of which I'll say two distinct yet connected things. First, the sample size is smaller for this season rather than last. Second, we've got a far better PPG this season, and I'd imagine that as (Tigger says 'if') our PPG decreases, our holding on to leads will similarly diminish (I appreciate these aren't directly connected, but more goals happen towards the end -- rather than beginning -- of a game).
The other poster that you quote is making a contradictory argument: it can't be the case that we create so many opportunities when one-up but don't finish them while, at the same time, sitting back and protecting the lead.

Milano · Nov 9, 2021

We miss chances, it’s that simple, put Callum Wilson in a Brighton shirt on Saturday and we win that football match. Or……if Welbeck was fit we also win that football match. It’s not rocket science. Not a dig at all, we’re a well run club and I imagine the striker we had on the bench Saturday is still causing angst with the people who write our cheques.

Farehamseagull · Nov 9, 2021

Are we better this season?

Bozza · Nov 9, 2021

Broadly agree with the few replies thus far - I don't think we're any better this season.

Early on, before the current slightly stumbling sets of results, the media was full of "what are Brighton doing differently?" and "Brighton have sorted out their goalscoring problem". Back then, and still today, I think "we're doing nothing differently" and "oh no we haven't".

We remain a very good footballing side, capable of competing with the best, but lack the clinical edge that separates the very best from the also-rans.

Kalimantan Gull · Nov 10, 2021

Bozza said:
Broadly agree with the few replies thus far - I don't think we're any better this season.

Early on, before the current slightly stumbling sets of results, the media was full of "what are Brighton doing differently?" and "Brighton have sorted out their goalscoring problem". Back then, and still today, I think "we're doing nothing differently" and "oh no we haven't".

We remain a very good footballing side, capable of competing with the best, but lack the clinical edge that separates the very best from the also-rans.

We are better - because the results are better. Sure, we perhaps don't 'look' any better, I agree, and in attack we arguably haven't hit our stride as often as we would like - but what I think I'm trying to point out that some of these improvements are quite subtle - small changes in shape at different stages of games which make us less likely to concede. Such subtle changes aren't immediately obvious - but they can come out in stats like these, which, over about a third of a season, are significant enough.

In your post you've immediately jumped on the pundits view of "Brighton have sorted out their goalscoring problem" as their argument for why we're better, and then disagreed with them. I agree with you, no, we haven't - but don't focus just on the attack. Just because our attack isn't better doesn't mean that we're not better as a team. Focus on the other side of the game, and defensively we're doing very well. Exactly why, I couldn't say for sure but there are definitely subtle changes and I think it is about holding our shape when ahead or drawing later in the game. Our games don't seem to be as getting as stretched as they did sometimes last year. We aren't ending up with Bissouma and others stuck on the edge of our box trying to hold a 1-goal lead for half an hour. There appears to be more solidity and confidence to our game - not always as pretty, but more effective.

- 14 games played and only one goal conceded in the last 15 minutes of a game - and that was Man City's fourth when the game was pretty much done.
- Newcastle was the first time we gave up a lead all season
- We haven't lost a game in which we fell behind and then scored an equaliser.
- We've scored two unanswered goals four times in 11 league games, only 1 less than we managed in the whole of last season.

These are all big improvements on last season so yes, I think we're better.

Kalimantan Gull · Nov 10, 2021

Machiavelli said:
I'm not sure we sat back last season, and don't think we did on Saturday either. We certainly did under CH, especially in the last 15 minutes when ahead (and, on a few occasions, for the entire game). That said, we did play deeper -- 'low block; -- under CH in general.
My problem on Saturday was that we were too passive, not that we sat too deep. But interesting stats, of which I'll say two distinct yet connected things. First, the sample size is smaller for this season rather than last. Second, we've got a far better PPG this season, and I'd imagine that as (Tigger says 'if') our PPG decreases, our holding on to leads will similarly diminish (I appreciate these aren't directly connected, but more goals happen towards the end -- rather than beginning -- of a game).
The other poster that you quote is making a contradictory argument: it can't be the case that we create so many opportunities when one-up but don't finish them while, at the same time, sitting back and protecting the lead.

No, the poster was right about last year - we would create loads of chances at 0-0 or 0-1, but as soon as we got the goal we would drop back and invite pressure almost immediately, and it rarely ended well for us. The dropping back seemed to be Bissouma, his midfield partner and the wing-backs who would become noticeably deeper, leaving the forwards more isolated, so the opposition would win the ball more regularly, taking hold of the game. Our attacks would become quick breaks, but when we lost the ball we didn't stay up and press but would quickly fall back, allowing the opposition spells of possession. I don't see this happening as often this year and I think it is holding a shape higher up the pitch and more consistent pressing throughout the game.

This isn't about what happened in the Newcastle game - its more that the outcome of the Newcastle game was similar to what we saw last season - but an outlier compared to this season. I find that interesting. And as you say, the reason we conceded the equaliser was quite different to why we conceded goals last year.

We've played 14 games this season, we played 44 last year, so we're about a third of the way through. I think the stats can be compared - for example conceding an equalising goal once every 3 games last season to 1 in 14 games this season suggests a change; or conceding a significant goal in the last 15 minutes once every four games last year to none so far in 14 games this year also looks interesting. I'll agree that all these stats should only be taken as suggestive of a trend, and something we can now look at and see if they hold or revert to being similar to last year.

Stat Brother · Nov 10, 2021

I'm not sure the team is tangibly better.
It feels like a few aspects have improved, a little more ruthless, a little more thoughtful, better balanced.

I said a while ago and have seen nothing to change my mind:-

'GPott needs to review his contract with Lady Luck.
He can't continue with the current deal of 'all or nothing'.

They spent last season with no luck.
Started this season with all the luck.
Now the big concern (which makes wind up days such fun) is are the reverting back to type?

I don't think they are, I think there's enough 'marginal gains' to see them through, but we'll know for sure over the next month or so.

Obviously this is a completely different conversation with a statement striker in the squad.

Robinjakarta · Nov 10, 2021

Stat Brother said:
I'm not sure the team is tangibly better.
It feels like a few aspects have improved, a little more ruthless, a little more thoughtful, better balanced.

They spent last season with no luck.
Started this season with all the luck.
Now the big concern (which makes wind up days such fun) is are the reverting back to type?

I don't think they are, I think there's enough 'marginal gains' to see them through, but we'll know for sure over the next month or so.

Agree with all of that except about luck if that includes injuries. Our luck last season was definitely terrible and IMO put us in a false position whatever some may say about the table never lying. We haven't had that this season, but if we include substantial injury loss of three of our best players in Lamptey, Webster and Welbeck plus others to a lesser degree, it hasn't all been good, either.

Hugo Rune · Nov 10, 2021

Kalimantan Gull said:
It all collectively suggests more resilience and less of the falling back into defence when we are ahead or have just equalised, which can often lead to complete backs to the wall defending in the final stages of a game. Getting ahead and staying there. Not conceding late goals. Scoring twice unanswered. Coming from behind and getting rewards for that. All of which we're doing better than last season. Saturday may have felt like the continuation of our narrative from last season, but the stats suggest it could just be more of a blip* - and may speak to the more subtle ways that Potter is changing our fortunes.

I think you’ve nailed it.

We are slightly better than last year and experience plays a large part in that. Potter has mostly young players at his disposal, I think they are a lot more comfortable being in the lead or chasing an equaliser so credit to them and the manager.

However, the vast difference in league position is mostly down to luck for me. With Ryan in goal (for whatever reason) we had one of the worst shot to goals conceding rate the EPL has ever seen. Generally, you just needed two or three shots on goal and the ball would go in against us in the first half of last season. Whilst Arsenal at home was the peak of the Potter Out Campaign, the response after the Sheff Utd match was also poisonous on NSC and social media (but oddly not in the ground amongst the supporters). Potter was getting pelters but if the likes of Salah, Jota & Mane had had the same shooting opportunities as Connolly, Maupay, Trossard and Jahanbakhsh had had, we’d have won 4 or 5-1, easily.

Sadly however, our big problem with converting chances has not gone away, infact, I think the effect of the resilience you quote has actually led to us taking less shots.

Palace have joined us in becoming draw specialists and I fear we are headed for between 10th-15th very quickly through lack of goals with them alongside us.

We just about get away with it with Welbeck fit, in form and playing but himself, Trossard and Maupay need at least another two quality forwards/wingers alongside them to replace Connolly and Locadia. The club have taken a lot of gambles with younger players and I’m confident enough of them will come through long term saving us millions and millions. Short term, however, I think the goal drought is well under way and that we’ll be drawing our way to the bottom half very very soon.

Swansman · Nov 10, 2021

The team suffered from some heavy PTSD last season and eventually there was a lot of negative thoughts popping up any time the team took a lead. Dont think that was the cause this weekend - the team didnt drop the initiative just after taking the lead, it happened quite a bit later.

Milano said:
We miss chances, it’s that simple, put Callum Wilson in a Brighton shirt on Saturday and we win that football match. Or……if Welbeck was fit we also win that football match. It’s not rocket science. Not a dig at all, we’re a well run club and I imagine the striker we had on the bench Saturday is still causing angst with the people who write our cheques.

The team really didnt create enough chances against Norwich or Newcastle to deserve scoring more than a goal. Three good chances, one goal is a completely normal ratio. Same thing against Norwich - not enough was created.

Efficiency has overall been ok this season (especially compared to last) but more to be desired on the chance creation department.

Machiavelli · Nov 10, 2021

Kalimantan Gull said:
No, the poster was right about last year

My comment was not whether the poster was right or wrong. I stated they were being contradictory, and explained why.
You've taken one of the points that poster made -- that last year we sat back when we took the lead. Fair enough, although I don't entirely agree with it -- but the discussion you've raised is about this year, so let's concentrate on that.
I take some of what you say, some of what [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] says, and some of what [MENTION=23795]Hugo Rune[/MENTION] says. I don't think we're doing too much more or differently than last year (Bozza's point), but agree with you that there are many minor improvements that are having a cumulative effect. This I put down to the improved experience that Hugo identifies: we're a young side who are not only improving individually and collectively but also getting a little more 'street-wise', and this is the likeliest explanation for why things are going better towards the end of the game this season.

Springal · Nov 10, 2021

Always felt we got very lucky early on this season - but we are back to drawing games, unable to score goals from open play, blah blah same as last season

Hugo Rune · Nov 10, 2021

Swansman said:
Efficiency has overall been ok this season (especially compared to last) but more to be desired on the chance creation department.

I’m not sure we’ll be scoring many more, even with more shots created. We just don’t have enough goals scoring talent throughout the squad. Here are Bournemouth’s individual goal scoring stats (over 1 goal) for the season (2015/2016) where they finished in their highest place ever (9th):

Steve Cook 2
Dan Gosling 2
Nathan Aké 3
Marc Pugh2
Benik Afobe 6
Charlie Daniels4
Callum Wilson6
Joshua King16
Junior Stanislas 7
Ryan Fraser 3
Total: 51

Can you honestly say that we could ever match those stats in terms of having 10 key players producing those goals stats with our current squad?

If we transpose our players onto those stats taking into consideration similar playing positions, it comes out like this:

Shane Duffy 2
Adam Webster 2
Lewis Dunk 3
Yves Bissouma 2
Danny Welbeck 6
Adam Lallana 4
Aaron Connolly 6
Neal Maupay 16
Lenandro Trossard 7
Solly March 3

How many of the above players could achieve the ‘Bournemouth 9th place par’? Clearly the defenders can and maybe Tross on a good year or Welbeck if he isn’t injured all the time but other players (who are brilliant in a lot of other areas) just can’t score for love or money. Until we resolve this fundamental problem with our playing staff, any position above 15th is going to be a great achievement.

This is where I suspect we’ll end up in terms of goals stats.

Shane Duffy 3
Adam Webster 3
Lewis Dunk 3
Yves Bissouma 1
Danny Welbeck 4
Adam Lallana 1
Aaron Connolly 2
Neal Maupay 10
Lenandro Trossard 6
Solly March 2
Total: 35

Those 16 less goals than Bournemouth 15/16 are the reason why a top ten finish is so challenging for us.

Bozza · Nov 10, 2021

Kalimantan Gull said:
We are better - because the results are better.

There's not a huge amount in in terms of results if you compare like with like (ie Burnley away both this season and last) and swap out relegated/promoted teams in the order they finished the preceding season (ie Norwich for Fulham). You get:

2020/21 P11 W3 D5 L3 F11 A9 Pts 14
2021/22 P11 W4 D5 L2 F12 A12 Pts 17

Full results list:

2021/22 / 2020/21
Burnley 1 - 2 Albion / Burnley 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 2 - 0 Watford / Albion 1 - 1 West Brom
Albion 0 - 2 Everton / Albion 0 - 0 Everton
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion / Sheff Utd 1 - 0 Albion
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester / Albion 1 -2 Leicester
Palace 1 - 1 Albion / Palace 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal / Albion 0 - 1 Arsenal
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion / Fulham 0 - 0 Albion
Albion 1 - 4 Man City / Albion 3 - 2 Man City
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion / Liverpool 0 - 1 Albion
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle / Albion 3 - 0 Newcastle

Kalimantan Gull said:
defensively we're doing very well.

I agree, and have said on here several times that our defensive solidity will serve us well and helps make up for deficiencies at the other end of the pitch. However, you'll see in the like-for-like results above, our defence has actually been worse, if measured by goals conceded alone, this season compared to last. I'll admit to being surprised about that.

Stat Brother · Nov 10, 2021

Bozza said:
There's not a huge amount in in terms of results if you compare like with like (ie Burnley away both this season and last) and swap out relegated/promoted teams in the order they finished the preceding season (ie Norwich for Fulham). You get:

2020/21 P11 W3 D5 L3 F11 A9 Pts 14
2021/22 P11 W4 D5 L2 F12 A12 Pts 17

Full results list:

2021/22 / 2020/21
Burnley 1 - 2 Albion / Burnley 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 2 - 0 Watford / Albion 1 - 1 West Brom
Albion 0 - 2 Everton / Albion 0 - 0 Everton
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion / Sheff Utd 1 - 0 Albion
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester / Albion 1 -2 Leicester
Palace 1 - 1 Albion / Palace 1 - 1 Albion
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal / Albion 0 - 1 Arsenal
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion / Fulham 0 - 0 Albion
Albion 1 - 4 Man City / Albion 3 - 2 Man City
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion / Liverpool 0 - 1 Albion
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle / Albion 3 - 0 Newcastle

I agree, and have said on here several times that our defensive solidity will serve us well and helps make up for deficiencies at the other end of the pitch. However, you'll see in the like-for-like results above, our defence has actually been worse, if measured by goals conceded alone, this season compared to last. I'll admit to being surprised about that.

That bloody Everton result is such an outlier.

That's gonna end up being the highlight of their season.
From memory 2 weeks earlier or later and we would have played a completely different team.

I don't recall us doing much wrong and coming away from that game with Newcastle levels of deflation - we just got beat by the better team.

Arthur · Nov 10, 2021

I don't think we've been better at all.....we've been luckier which appears to be the secret to winning in the premier league. Don't be good, be lucky.

Burnley 1 - 2 Albion - shite first half, bit unlucky with their goal. Nicked the win
Albion 2 - 0 Watford - Watford were terrible
Albion 0 - 2 Everton - good for 20 then played off the park
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion - second best all game but defended well. Nicked the win.
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester - good first half terrible second. Lucky with the pen, but made up for the exact same thing happening against us at Burnley. VERY lucky with both the disallowed goals
Palace 1 - 1 Albion - crap, nicked a point.
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal - best we've played all season. Was like last year all over. Got ZERO luck!
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion - didn't see so can't comment, obviously unlucky with the pen but very lucky after Sanchez howler.
Albion 1 - 4 Man City - they were unplayable first half, can draw a line through that.
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion - Sanchez howler and it would have been game over. Lucky (although right decision with the current daft laws) call, then unlucky not to grab the win second.
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle - Poor from start to finish. Newcastle were dreadful first half and we should have put the game to bed.

b.w.2. · Nov 11, 2021

Swansman said:
The team suffered from some heavy PTSD last season and eventually there was a lot of negative thoughts popping up any time the team took a lead. Dont think that was the cause this weekend - the team didnt drop the initiative just after taking the lead, it happened quite a bit later.

The team really didnt create enough chances against Norwich or Newcastle to deserve scoring more than a goal. Three good chances, one goal is a completely normal ratio. Same thing against Norwich - not enough was created.

Efficiency has overall been ok this season (especially compared to last) but more to be desired on the chance creation department.

What a surprise. So you don’t think Muzza mark II would have scored either of Solly or Cucu’s header chances. At least one of those should have been scored. Lamps destroyed Ritchie but all his great work went towards zero goals precisely because we lack a Wilson or similar

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Stat Brother · Nov 11, 2021

Arthur said:
I don't think we've been better at all.....we've been luckier which appears to be the secret to winning in the premier league. Don't be good, be lucky.

Burnley 1 - 2 Albion - shite first half, bit unlucky with their goal. Nicked the win
Albion 2 - 0 Watford - Watford were terrible
Albion 0 - 2 Everton - good for 20 then played off the park
Brentford 0 - 1 Albion - second best all game but defended well. Nicked the win.
Albion 2 - 1 Leicester - good first half terrible second. Lucky with the pen, but made up for the exact same thing happening against us at Burnley. VERY lucky with both the disallowed goals
Palace 1 - 1 Albion - crap, nicked a point.
Albion 0 - 0 Arsenal - best we've played all season. Was like last year all over. Got ZERO luck!
Norwich 0 - 0 Albion - didn't see so can't comment, obviously unlucky with the pen but very lucky after Sanchez howler.
Albion 1 - 4 Man City - they were unplayable first half, can draw a line through that.
Liverpool 2 - 2 Albion - Sanchez howler and it would have been game over. Lucky (although right decision with the current daft laws) call, then unlucky not to grab the win second.
Albion 1 - 1 Newcastle - Poor from start to finish. Newcastle were dreadful first half and we should have put the game to bed.

There is definitely a parallel universe where the Albion have 5 points and are 18th.

amexer · Nov 11, 2021

Have not read all post but we have not been better this season. Last season can hardly think of a game that we won or drew because luck was on our side. Thankfully the opposite this season and we have only played 11 games. Just seem to be slower getting ball from back to front. If we are copying a great side like City they pass back with aim of getting ball forward to a midfielder asap. So much of our play ends up with keeper or a long ball. Assume this is because midfielders not available. Thought Bissouma coming back would solve problem but he chose Newcastle game to have one of his poorer games.
Of course like most teams we need a striker but just as much need a 10 who can play nearer Maupay. Thought Lalana would do this but he is so often deeper and anyway cant shoot. Maybe Mwpu will be answer

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