[Albion] Theoretical - earliest we could be in the bottom 3

Dick Swiveller · Sep 20, 2021

I did this a couple of weeks ago but definitely worth doing again. If the PL follows last season, it took 17 games for Fulham to reach 12 points. Our 17th game is home to Wolves (14th December) so even if we lose every game until then, that would be the earliest we could be in the bottom 3.

Shows how much more value a few early wins in the PL is compared to other divisions.

durrington gull · Sep 20, 2021

Dick Swiveller said:
I did this a couple of weeks ago but definitely worth doing again. If the PL follows last season, it took 17 games for Fulham to reach 12 points. Our 17th game is home to Wolves (14th December) so even if we lose every game until then, that would be the earliest we could be in the bottom 3.

Shows how much more value a few early wins in the PL is compared to other divisions.

Takes a lot of pressure off , the quicker we get to 30pts the better

Kalimantan Gull · Sep 20, 2021

August next season?

Fat Boy Fat · Sep 20, 2021

Kalimantan Gull said:
August next season?

Yep, those trips to Albania in the Europa League can strain a squad...

Justice · Sep 20, 2021

Fat Boy Fat said:
Yep, those trips to Albania in the Europa League can strain a squad...

We want champions league a group with one big side and the others beatable like a Genk :lolol:

chaileyjem · Sep 20, 2021

The BBC did analysis of a fast start at the beginning of the season looking at what was required after 10 games to effectively stay up.
If you have 12+ points after 10 then you almost certainly guaranteed to avoid relegation.
via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58148143

Gwylan · Sep 20, 2021

chaileyjem said:
The BBC did analysis of a fast start at the beginning of the season looking at what was required after 10 games to effectively stay up.
If you have 12+ points after 10 then you almost certainly guaranteed to avoid relegation.
via
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58148143

View attachment 140574

Who was the team that went down with 12+ points (and how many did they have?)

KeegansHairPiece · Sep 20, 2021

Gwylan said:
Who was the team that went down with 12+ points (and how many did they have?)

Bournemouth had 13 points after 10 games in October 2019. They were relegated on 34 points in 2020. They were 7 pts after 5 games: W2 D1 L2.

Gwylan · Sep 20, 2021

KeegansHairPiece said:
Bournemouth had 13 points after 10 games in October 2019. They were relegated on 34 points in 2020.

Thanks. So, one more win in our next five games and we should be pretty safe

And Bournemouth were unlucky, that was the season that Villa got a spawny draw with Sheff U when the dozy officials hadn't noticed the ball over the line. If that had been given, Bournemouth would probably have stayed up

Nobby Cybergoat · Sep 20, 2021

Not sure why we're talking about relegation.

We're obviously not going to be anywhere near relegation. I don't think we'll be near Europe either.

The question we should be asking is, what is a realistic goal from here?

I think top half. That's where we should be aiming. It will be very hard, but we can do it.

If we can balance that with a decent cup run, and 4 or 6 points against Palace, then we'll surely have had the best season in our history

bhanutz · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
Not sure why we're talking about relegation.

We're obviously not going to be anywhere near relegation. I don't think we'll be near Europe either.

The question we should be asking is, what is a realistic goal from here?

I think top half. That's where we should be aiming. It will be very hard, but we can do it.

If we can balance that with a decent cup run, and 4 or 6 points against Palace, then we'll surely have had the best season in our history

Exactly... Sky bet offering 40/1 on us being relegated... If anyone wants to take it.

Stat Brother · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
Not sure why we're talking about relegation.

We're obviously not going to be anywhere near relegation.

Because we're Albion fans, that's what we do.

I'm just relieved we can look forward to losing on Monday and still be above them.

sparkie · Sep 20, 2021

Grim thread.

Just enjoy our good start.

chaileyjem · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
Not sure why we're talking about relegation.

We're obviously not going to be anywhere near relegation.

Tell that to Southampton who won 7 of their first 12 last season mostly against relegated / teams around them ( to go 3rd and then won only 3 of their next 22 to slump to 17th with 4 games to go...)

Mind you they stayed up with ease to be fair.

Nobby Cybergoat · Sep 20, 2021

chaileyjem said:
Tell that to Southampton who won 7 of their first 12 last season mostly against relegated / teams around them ( to go 3rd and then won only 3 of their next 22 to slump to 17th with 4 games to go...)

Mind you they stayed up with ease to be fair.

I'm aware of Southampton's up and down season.

We haven't gone on the sort of horror run they did for several years and we won't this season.

A1X · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
We haven't gone on the sort of horror run they did for several years and we won't this season.

Nobby Cybergoat · Sep 20, 2021

A1X said:

We'll lose games. We won't finish this high.

But we've got too much resilience to lose 8, 10 in a row.

The odds on us going down are right. Hardly any chance ... and and me saying it on a NSC post doesn't change that probability one iota

Cowfold Seagull · Sep 20, 2021

Well however you look at it, we are a third of the way to Premier League survival already.

Who would thave thought it?

A1X · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
But we've got too much resilience to lose 8, 10 in a row.

I see...and what are next week's lottery numbers?

chaileyjem · Sep 20, 2021

Nobby Cybergoat said:
I'm aware of Southampton's up and down season.

We haven't gone on the sort of horror run they did for several years and we won't this season.

I'm a pretty positive / half glass full fan but to be fair last season with the same manager and most of the same players we went on a "horror" run where we won 2 games in 18
and in 19/20 we had a run where we won twice in 19, and 18/19 we did a 2 wins in 18 run - the last 18 games of the season which resulted in Hughton's sacking,

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