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[Football] Another useless Stat- "Win Probability"



nickbrighton

Well-known member
Feb 19, 2016
1,906
So the Prem have come up with another bit of bollox for the commentators to waffle on about.

At various times throughout the match we are now shown a win probability %, which the commentators then spend a few mins discussing.

So it seems to work like this, a team that very rarely comes from behind to win is behind at half time playing a team that very seldom loses a game where they are in front at half time. Unsurprisingly the team behind has a low win probability"- wow what an insight

Over the games I watched this "win probability" changed so often and so quickly (ours changed from a single figure win chance to 80+ in 10 mins, as did a lot of the others.

Its just a load of obvious meaningless hogwash. Im pretty sure most of us can figure out that if we are 2-0 up with 5mins to go, we are likely to win the game (well we aren't, but most teams would be)

What would this Win Probability have been like in the City game last season, 2-0 down, 70 mins gone- I expect 95% against a win, even at 2-1 it wouldnt have changed much!

Has anyone found it useful and enhanced the "match day experience"? or Like me, do you think is meaningless drivel? (probably much like this post)
 


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
10,612
So the Prem have come up with another bit of bollox for the commentators to waffle on about.

At various times throughout the match we are now shown a win probability %, which the commentators then spend a few mins discussing.

So it seems to work like this, a team that very rarely comes from behind to win is behind at half time playing a team that very seldom loses a game where they are in front at half time. Unsurprisingly the team behind has a low win probability"- wow what an insight

Over the games I watched this "win probability" changed so often and so quickly (ours changed from a single figure win chance to 80+ in 10 mins, as did a lot of the others.

Its just a load of obvious meaningless hogwash. Im pretty sure most of us can figure out that if we are 2-0 up with 5mins to go, we are likely to win the game (well we aren't, but most teams would be)

What would this Win Probability have been like in the City game last season, 2-0 down, 70 mins gone- I expect 95% against a win, even at 2-1 it wouldnt have changed much!

Has anyone found it useful and enhanced the "match day experience"? or Like me, do you think is meaningless drivel? (probably much like this post)

Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.
This.

I was going to ask why the OP was bothering to rant about it, but actually this is a very good reason. Beyond that, result probability offers nothing.
 


Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
6,829
They have it in the cricket now ... not that I watch the hundred religiously you understand.

I don't think it's actually linked to betting. It's just broadcasters trying a new fad
 


Bry Nylon

Test your smoke alarm
Helpful Moderator
Jul 21, 2003
19,781
Playing snooker
Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.

Quite.

"When the fun stops...find subliminal ways to coax viewers to wager even more money."
 






Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
10,612
the cricket one very rarely marries up with the live in-play betting odds which is quite funny. That they can't even invent a decent algorithm

to be fair in-play odds are usually very shit.
I wouldn't be surprised that the two don't marry up.
 


Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,521
I can see win probability is a good tool to aid the betting industry but as on-screen stats go it is as meaningless as possession %.
 




Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,370
West west west Sussex
But I'm #1.
 










Arthritic Toe

Well-known member
Nov 25, 2005
2,390
Swindon
No - I don't want this at all. If we're 2 down going into the last 10 mins, I don't want some numpty telling me there's practically no chance of getting a result. It will destroy the hope.
 


nickbrighton

Well-known member
Feb 19, 2016
1,906
TBH I hadn't considered the betting angle, which certainly makes more sense of it.

I wasn't trying to have a rant as such, just I really couldn't see any point to it, but as has been pointed out, its maybe away of encouraging betting without being seen to do.

I really thought that there was a plan to remove all this "in play" betting and the constant advertising but it seems to be getting worse not better, but thats a thread for another day
 


Happy Exile

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Apr 19, 2018
1,839
I really hate the relentless promotion of gambling and the pointless statistifcation of football. Watching Spurs v Man City yesterday the commentary and their relentless looking for narratives in the statistics to try and create a story where there's already enough of one is one of the things I most hate about having no option to turn off commentary without turning off sound altogether.

(But the nerd in me gets some guilty interest looking at some of the AI models that predict win/draw/lose before a game even begins - my favourite is currently suggesting us to win as the most likely outcome at the weekend.)
 



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