[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - The Staying Up Tracker - season 21-22 Final Update - 11 ABOVE

Washboard Didgets · Jan 24, 2022

chaileyjem said:
Currently we're -

0 points games (coming up: Man Utd (A), Spurs (H)
P9, W1, D7, L1 - 10pts
1 point games (coming up: Watford (A)
P7, W3, D3 L1 - 12pts
3 point games (coming up: Villa (H), Burnley (H)
P6, W2, D2, L2 - 8pts

So far this season:

0 point target = 1.11 ppg
1 point target = 1.71 ppg
3 point target = 1.33 ppg

Still to play:

0 point target – 6 games @ 1.11 = 6.66 points
1 point target – 3 games @ 1.71 = 5.13 points
3 point target – 7 games @ 1.33 = 9.31 points

So if we continue the rest of the season in the same way, we could get another 21 points.

Giving us a predicted total of 51 points at the end of the season.

Last season Villa finished 11th with 55 points and Newcastle finished 12th with 45 points. Leeds and Everton finished 9th and 10th with 59 points, so with a bit of improvement in picking up a couple more 'expected' wins we could finish in the top half.

I don't know how the table to date compares with last season in terms of points totals to know if the target may be lower/higher this season.

Couldn't Be Hyypia · Jan 24, 2022

Machiavelli said:
I look at things very differently. The Tracker bore far closer resemblance to our results under CH than it does for GP. We rarely picked up anything from the top six under CH, whereas we have done consistently under GP. We're less effective against our relegation (ex?) rivals now, because we're less good at breaking down teams that play a low, deep block than we are at exploiting opportunities against the (top half) teams that come at us.

I think that's last seasons issue you are illustrating. I don't recognise what you describe in the numbers this year. We're very slightly under-performing against Bottom 10, and significantly over-performing against top 10 sides.

Couldn't Be Hyypia · Jan 24, 2022

Washboard Didgets said:
The first two show how well we are doing, 22 points from a target of 7 points.

The last one tells us what we already knew, that we struggle to win against the teams that are defending for their lives and don't give us space to play into – 8 points from a target of 18 points.

Not sure you are totally right here. Some of those 1 point games were against Bottom 10 sides away from home. And we've done well.

Our issue with bottom sides is not as marked as it was last season, but it is still an issue at The Amex, where (even really good) teams really do park the bus and time waste.

Perkino · Jan 24, 2022

Bold Seagull said:
Or, 2 wins and unbeaten in our last 6...

View attachment 144255

I'm delighted to be in our current form and to be a side that is so difficult to beat. If confidence continues to climb then the remainder of the season will be joyous to watch

Acker79 · Jan 24, 2022

Washboard Didgets said:
But I've been a Brighton fan long enough to fear we will lose one of the target wins and probably draw the other, plus Watford could well be on another new manager bounce by then.

So a regression towards the black line and away from the orange one is more where my expectations lie, and the hope/dream would be 39-40 points before March.

Ah, so you were a fan back in November. :thumbsup:

Dick Head · Jan 29, 2022

Washboard Didgets said:
But I've been a Brighton fan long enough to fear we will lose one of the target wins and probably draw the other, plus Watford could well be on another new manager bounce by then.

So a regression towards the black line and away from the orange one is more where my expectations lie, and the hope/dream would be 39-40 points before March.

Watford are always on a new manager bounce. Up and down like a bride's nightie.

Giraffe · Feb 12, 2022

7 points over. Full update to follow later. Time to wet the bed but in a different way…

Thompson720 · Feb 12, 2022

Thoroughly looking forward to the updated tracker!

Dick Head · Feb 12, 2022

Giraffe said:
7 points over. Full update to follow later. Time to wet the bed but in a different way…

warmleyseagull · Feb 12, 2022

Giraffe said:
Time to wet the bed but in a different way…

What, pointing upwards?

Giraffe · Feb 12, 2022

Aaaaaaaand here we go. Lovely.

Big bonus point opportunity up next...

Bodian · Feb 12, 2022

We're back on the Orange. I think we may need a couple of extra columns for the Europe Tracker in there now. Gosh.

A1X · Feb 12, 2022

Probably our best chance ever at picking up a result at Old Trafford?

CaptainDaveUK · Feb 12, 2022

Thanks as always for this great tracker. Looking ahead at the fixtures, if we keep to the tracker but somehow also manage to WIN THE LAST THREE games of the season, NSC will go into meltdown and the Albion will probably be in Europe! West Ham last game of the season!

banjo · Feb 12, 2022

So free hits next 4 games then. :cheers:

Albion in the north · Feb 12, 2022

banjo said:
So free hits next 4 games then.

Next 7 games I reckon (including rearranged Spuds game.

Badger · Feb 12, 2022

Marvellous scenes.

Have we ever been 7 (Seven) over before?

theboybilly · Feb 12, 2022

Meanwhile Crystal Palace are bottom of 'The Other 14' Twitter tracker with only 3 home games left against Bottom 14 clubs. So much for the 'Hardest start since football began' nonsense

Giraffe · Feb 13, 2022

theboybilly said:
Meanwhile Crystal Palace are bottom of 'The Other 14' Twitter tracker with only 3 home games left against Bottom 14 clubs. So much for the 'Hardest start since football began' nonsense

Indeed they are. And looking a little vulnerable in our tracker league table now updated after the weekend's games.

Also look how far adrift we are in "real terms" from Wolves. Could change quite quickly though as a lot of free hits coming up. I'd fancy something Tuesday for starters, and also think we could beat Spurs at least once this season.

All to play for but our position highlights the tough run to come.

McTavish · Feb 13, 2022

Giraffe said:
All to play for but our position highlights the tough run to come.

And also emphasises that everyone from Leeds down is far from safe.

Or as the table stands at the moment, everyone from Palace down...

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[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - The Staying Up Tracker - season 21-22 Final Update - 11 ABOVE

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