- Aug 8, 2005
- 26,536
So here we go again.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for several seasons the level has been lower but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Everton (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately), but not Leeds or above. Last season you'll recall it was Sheff United in the Leeds position. Let's see if history repeats itself
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United obviously under performed against the previous season. I suspect this season will not see one of these oddities, although Everton may finally turn up in their limp charge for the top six?
Unlike last season where the "expected points" were heavily weighted towards the second half of the season, this season is pretty even, 21 in the first half, 19 in the second half. But we could get behind quite quickly if we don't start well.
So here it is for the coming season:
- First four games suggest a stonking 8 points which would put us in the top six?
- After that early promise only one more win in the next 12 games as the "More snow tomorrow" thread sees it's first outing.
- A good December and January run, including absolutely smashing Palace on 15th Jan as they tumble to the bottom of the league, gets us to 25 points after 23 games.
- 7 points in Feb, and we are nearly there with 32 points which would have comfortably kept us up last season.
- But a dismal final 11 games sees just 2 more wins and the season drifts out into "just about staying up territory".
I really hope we do better than above, but we need a great start. Lets hope, whatever happens, we are all there to see it!
I'll guess at 52-55 points this season by the way. Last two seasons I have been 4/5 points too high but aiming too high is the Giraffe way.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for several seasons the level has been lower but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Everton (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately), but not Leeds or above. Last season you'll recall it was Sheff United in the Leeds position. Let's see if history repeats itself
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United obviously under performed against the previous season. I suspect this season will not see one of these oddities, although Everton may finally turn up in their limp charge for the top six?
Unlike last season where the "expected points" were heavily weighted towards the second half of the season, this season is pretty even, 21 in the first half, 19 in the second half. But we could get behind quite quickly if we don't start well.
So here it is for the coming season:
- First four games suggest a stonking 8 points which would put us in the top six?
- After that early promise only one more win in the next 12 games as the "More snow tomorrow" thread sees it's first outing.
- A good December and January run, including absolutely smashing Palace on 15th Jan as they tumble to the bottom of the league, gets us to 25 points after 23 games.
- 7 points in Feb, and we are nearly there with 32 points which would have comfortably kept us up last season.
- But a dismal final 11 games sees just 2 more wins and the season drifts out into "just about staying up territory".
I really hope we do better than above, but we need a great start. Lets hope, whatever happens, we are all there to see it!
I'll guess at 52-55 points this season by the way. Last two seasons I have been 4/5 points too high but aiming too high is the Giraffe way.
