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[Football] Relegation Odds 21/22 Season



Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
64,059
Withdean area
It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.

:thumbsup:

And my post was parodying the posters who predict we’re going down before a ball is kicked, usually blamed on not singing a £40m striker.
 






Change at Barnham

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2011
4,920
Bognor Regis
Spain is strange. COVID has had a big impact on the top clubs spending plus RM are rebuilding their stadium (have a look at those that haven't see what they are doing). Both Barca and RM are coming to the end of eras where the teams need to be rebuilt. RM have better young players but are not necessarily playing them. Both sides are heavily in debt.
Italy is skint and France have PSG who have lost the title to Lille. TV deal has affected clubs in France which is how Leeds got Raphinia for only 17m. Leicester have also got some good players from France recently.

And the Chinese government have 'suggested' that Chinese companies should reduce their football investments.

Hence lots of nervous back peddling going on at Wolves, Southampton, Inter Milan and a few other clubs.
 


vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
Clearly the bookies must be very deluded! With our idiot manager and terrible owner who won’t fork out £50m for a striker we’re obviously going down [emoji6]
 








Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.
But any bet you make which loses is throwing money away at the end of the day ?

I don't think albion will go down whatever odds are given.
 






HastingsSeagull

Well-known member
Jan 13, 2010
9,259
BGC Manila
The sides coming up all strike me as young, attacking sides. Those can often struggle despite you wanting them to do well more than boring, lumpy, 'historically big' clubs.

I really wish the likes of palarse assuming they don't spend well replacing 80% of their first team, Newcastle and Burnley could feck off down and the three promoted teams show it can be done. Won't be holding my breath though!
 




RM-Taylor

He's Magic.... You Know
Jan 7, 2006
15,272
Brentford 11/10 on most sites with Watford. Thought they’d be priced lower than Norwich in fairness. Outside the 3 promoted teams Palace next favourites for the drop.
 




RM-Taylor

He's Magic.... You Know
Jan 7, 2006
15,272
It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.

https://www.northstandchat.com/showthread.php?381685-Relegation-odds-20-21

Sheff Utd were 4/1, same as us
 


Dave Fishwick

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2021
1,282
London
surprised no firm stuck their neck out with Brentford - considering I imagine they will be shorter in the match prices than your Norwich's and Watfords
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,769
West west west Sussex
surprised no firm stuck their neck out with Brentford - considering I imagine they will be shorter in the match prices than your Norwich's and Watfords

As they're guaranteed 4 points from us, they are probably tricky to price over the other 36 games.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,215
Surrey
As they're guaranteed 4 points from us, they are probably tricky to price over the other 36 games.
Although Brentford always beat us, it's also worth remembering that none of the relegated sides will lose to is either, thus obviously negating your well made point.


For what it's worth, Brentford at 11/10 is far too short for me. I sincerely believe they will have a first season not unlike ours was.
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,215
Surrey
At the prices being quoted, I'd consider Leeds, West Ham, Villa and Wolves.

Leeds could get found out and might be in trouble if Bielsa ever walks
West Ham had a good season but I suspect that was a one off.
Aston Villa might fall apart if Grealish is sold
Wolves are an unknown quantity without their manager and don't have enough depth to be assured of avoiding a relegation fight.

I don't actually think any of them will go but all look value at the prices being quoted.
 


Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
9,863
Right then. We all know that us and the wankpuffins are in each other's places there:

1. They will get a funky new manager that will get them playing football.
2. Dibley will be impressed and stay, and he will grow up.
3. Benny will be Belgium's hero firing them to Euro glory, signing an extension and being the league's highest scorer.
4. The old players get a new lease of life and play like sprightly teenagers again.
5. They are fighting for euro qualification.
6. Despite all the bullshit about the new stand, the fans don't turn on Beaky.

(Before anyone gets pissy knickered, whatever we say about them goes wrong.) I am confident about the above.
 


NooBHA

Well-known member
Jan 13, 2015
8,584
I think Brighton could go down next year.

Haven't for a minute thought they would go down in the last 4 years but I have a feeling some of the key players might be sold in the summer for profit and I am not sure Recruitment is good enough to replace them if that happens. Also the teams coming up won't be anything like the 3 that went down this year. None of them broke 30 points and so never at any stage put any real pressure on the teams above them so it never really made the surviving teams nervous at any stage.
 




Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
I think Brighton could go down next year.

Haven't for a minute thought they would go down in the last 4 years but I have a feeling some of the key players might be sold in the summer for profit and I am not sure Recruitment is good enough to replace them if that happens. Also the teams coming up won't be anything like the 3 that went down this year. None of them broke 30 points and so never at any stage put any real pressure on the teams above them so it never really made the surviving teams nervous at any stage.
So you are basically saying that recruitment lucked out with the players we might sell and they probably won't with any replacements ?
 


NooBHA

Well-known member
Jan 13, 2015
8,584
So you are basically saying that recruitment lucked out with the players we might sell and they probably won't with any replacements ?


I am saying that some of the players that there is talk of selling have been pivotal to the team and it's survival in the league.
 


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