Worried Man Blues
Well-known member
Possession vs shots /goals, there will be a match fixing enquiry
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[Albion] Brighton still 6/1 to go down ....
- Thread starter dwayne
- Start date
banjo
GOSBTS
£20 @4/1. It will cover some of the misery if we go down.
SittingbourneSeagull
Well-known member
Who are we relying on?
GloryDays
Well-known member
I think xG is the curveball. It seems to be a stat peddled by the bookies to entice gambling and can't go back on it now. The stats suggest we will be fine but it does seem the majority of journalists and betting companies don't actually watch many games.
I saw an article the other day about how Potter was too good for Brighton and it seemed to all be about xG. The footer at the bottom of the article reminded people to gamble responsibly. I feel like a lot of stats these days aren't actually about analysis for fans to digest but to equip the gambling community with information that will make them feel more confident parting with their money.
I saw an article the other day about how Potter was too good for Brighton and it seemed to all be about xG. The footer at the bottom of the article reminded people to gamble responsibly. I feel like a lot of stats these days aren't actually about analysis for fans to digest but to equip the gambling community with information that will make them feel more confident parting with their money.
pasty
A different kind of pasty
I'm standing by the "bookies are rarely wrong" mantra so won't be sticking anything on us going down. Not that I would anyway, it's just wrong.
Richy_Seagull
Well-known member
You think that betting companies don't watch many games.......
Mancgull
Well-known member
Sky bet is 8/1 but you have to have the order right. I had a little dabble on that.
All those saying that Newcastle look doomed are overlooking the fact that Callum Wilson, Saint Maximam, Almiron should be fit again for the end of the season whereas for us March and Lamptey are out for the season.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I think we look like relegation certainties.
KeegansHairPiece
New member
- Jan 28, 2016
- 1,829
So many fans do this to protect themselves against the disappointment. Geordies will be doing exactly the same. We can't all be right.
The fans of Fulham will have felt doomed all season, they didn't have any hope a while back, so they can feel quite optimistic as relegation is expected.
There is absolutely no reason we are any more certain than Fulham or Newcastle. Over 1/4 of the season still left. 1 game at a time.
blue-shifted
Banned
It doesn't mean we are relegation certainties, but it does mean that anything other than a win against them is a very bad result
nwgull
Well-known member
You can still get 6-1
blue-shifted
Banned
Good point
the only stat most fans are interested in is are we winning a few games.
No we're not, hence the dissatisfaction.
portslade seagull
Well-known member
Been sleep walking since the summer transfer window
- Jun 27, 2012
- 13,980
Weren't Newcastle struggling and losing games when they were fit ?
GloryDays
Well-known member
It feels like they don't. I obviously know they are forensically trawling all the games to find anything to use (xG) to promote their business. My point was that xG is digested in a way to suggest that we aren't in a perilous situation. And too much data these days represents ulterior purposes, rather than to explain the actual occurrences of the matches. Touches in the box, successful pressures, xG, successful dribbles, shot creating plays...Possession.
But I do think many pundits carry a certain opinion without really ever watching us play. Currently Bissouma is the darling, prior to that it was White. March going solidly under the radar until his injury etc. Just amuses me how popular opinion doesn't need to necessarily be a correct one.
Seagull58
In the Algarve
They were very wrong about the Manc derby yesterday. Our relegation odds have steamed in from 25 to 1 so far
blue-shifted
Banned
Yeh, I think it's this.
I don't think we've had one all year, who's actually done their homework on us. They just regurgitate, White was at Leeds, Lamptey was at Chelsea, Burn is 6 foot 7 and Brighton are easy on the eye but need a striker.
(All of the above are true, but aren't that hard to find out)
Most elite clubs here and around the world have data science departments pouring over every metric imaginable, including xG. It’s not something just for the bookies.
Mancgull
Well-known member
They managed to beat Everton at Goodison when Almiron and Wilson were fit. Having all three out is like us being without three of our first teamers...... Eg March, Lamptey and Webster.