For what it’s worth, as of now still only gives us an 8% chance of relegation:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
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[Albion] Project FiveThirtyEight (SPI Prediction model)
- Thread starter vagabond
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #3
Surprisingly our odds haven’t changed massively after last night. I suppose to an unbiased prediction algorithm losing to a Champions League team is not unexpected.
We now have a 9% chance of relegation according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Half clutching at straws and trying to cheer us up.
We now have a 9% chance of relegation according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Half clutching at straws and trying to cheer us up.
We all have to believe that Fulham will not beat Liverpool, otherwise watch them odds come crashing in.
Lenny Rider
Well-known member
- Sep 15, 2010
- 5,425
Not seen anything so complex since Jack exchanged his Mum's prized Cow for some magic beans at the market.
ifightbears
Well-known member
I have been referring to this pretty much every day to keep me positive. I have watched as our predicted final points total has dropped from 46 to 40 over the last few weeks though. Other positive is seeing Norwich this season and wholeheartedly believing we would be very similar (keeping Potter, majority of players and trusting our younger players). Probably not the best mentality though!
- Thread starter
- #7
Updated: we now have a 1% chance of relegation and predicted to finish on 43pts.
(Newcastle and Fulham 47% chance of going down).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
(Newcastle and Fulham 47% chance of going down).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
Dick Swiveller
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 9,155
Hmm. I get the principle but given that the average simulated season gives Newcastle 1 more point than Fulham, how are they on the same percentage chance to get relegated? And how are we still listed as having a chance of reaching the CL - however small? I know we are only 19 points away with 27 points to play for but is there really a set a results that means we get 59 points and only 3 other teams get more? I suppose maybe there is a one in a trillion combination but even that seems unlikely.
Pondicherry
Well-known member
Am I reading this wrong or is that site ranking us at number 23 in the world currently (Palace are 103).
studio150
Well-known member
You are not reading this wrong.
All you need to know is that the ranking is mostly based on predicted number of goals (both scored and conceded) and squad value.
So given Palace's very low xG and no value in the squad they are obviously worse off.
- Thread starter
- #11
Obviously we’re not going to, but technically we could mathematically still qualify for the Champions League I guess?
There is a section on how things are calculated, they take into account things like fixtures, player defence/offence ratings. It seems to be aligned with the bookies as well.
Like the other points tracker here, I’ve found this a reassuring solace this season after our bad results.
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,071
Liking this. A lot.
"Bright'nAndOveAlbionFC - we're the 23rd best club - the world can currently see"...
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,318
I love FivethirtyEight. Possibly my favourite website. As an example. You are more likely to get work if you played a human rather than an Alien in the Star wars films. They've got a stat for everything and yes, part of the joy is its utter pointlessness.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...n-cast-in-star-wars-will-you-ever-work-again/
It even references a user of this board I believe.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...n-cast-in-star-wars-will-you-ever-work-again/
It even references a user of this board I believe.
Official Old Man
Uckfield Seagull
One point between Fulham & Newcastle. My last day viewing may not be The Albion.
Dick Swiveller
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 9,155
I suppose they must have calculated it but a series of games whereby we overtake all but 3 teams when they all have the same number of games to play still seems it should be beyond possibility given they will be playing each other so can't all lose all the time.