[Football] Last 17

Ding Dong ! · Feb 1, 2021

4 wins & 4 draws

or 3 Wins & 7 draws

Gives us 37pts, I feel that will maintain our Prem status for sure. What say you ?

schmunk · Feb 1, 2021

17 wins MINIMUM.

Blue Valkyrie · Feb 1, 2021

I say 34 points will be enough, maybe 33, or at a long shot 32 will see us safe.

Basically 3 wins and a smattering of draws.

The West Brom game is still *Must not lose* for now.

Hugo Rune · Feb 1, 2021

We’re better away.

Really looking forward to Burnley, Sheff Utd, Wolves and West Brom.

Could be our four wins right there?

blue-shifted · Feb 1, 2021

Fulham currently on 0.7 ppg.

If they don't improve this, they will get 27 points (rounded up)

This puts us needing 7 more points from 17 games to survive

Experience tells you, one of the bottom 3 will go on a good run at some stage. So add another 2 wins and call it 34 points the target. We then need ...... P17 W2 D7 L8 to stay up

Uh_huh_him · Feb 1, 2021

Every season there's a debate about how many points will be needed to stay up, with posters quoting increasingly low numbers.

36 is the average over the past 23 seasons and 37 would have been good enough on 16 occasions.
The lowest ever is 34.

The results over the last 8 games, for the teams finishing 17th/18th, almways seem to buck the trend of the previous 30.

studio150 · Feb 1, 2021

We should be aiming higher than 37 points to ensure no late season nerves.

jackanada · Feb 1, 2021

Uh_huh_him said:
Every season there's a debate about how many points will be needed to stay up, with posters quoting increasingly low numbers.

36 is the average over the past 23 seasons and 37 would have been good enough on 16 occasions.
The lowest ever is 34.

The results over the last 8 games, for the teams finishing 17th/18th, almways seem to buck the trend of the previous 30.

There's always the end of season factor where a team still desperately fighting comes up against those with nothing left to play for, or cup and European games to rest for, and the of odd top player who coasts a little those last few games because they have an eye on upcoming internationals.
Enough of those combine and suddenly someone's got 9 unexpected points and of no one has a late season tailspin to replace them that's when you can get caught out

Moshe Gariani · Feb 1, 2021

Uh_huh_him said:
Every season there's a debate about how many points will be needed to stay up, with posters quoting increasingly low numbers.

36 is the average over the past 23 seasons and 37 would have been good enough on 16 occasions.
The lowest ever is 34.

The results over the last 8 games, for the teams finishing 17th/18th, almways seem to buck the trend of the previous 30.

32pts with decent GD is the most likely number to be needed this year (32pts =Fulham’s expected pts total).

Could obviously go as high as 34, 35, 36 or 37 but it’s not likely.

The expected pts total for Albion is 42.

(Sauce: Sporting Index)

giveusfalmerplease · Feb 2, 2021

well i predicted on another thread we will be effectively safe with 5 games to go and i stick with that. expecting 8 points from the next 5 games to put us on 29, needing a max another 9 points from the last 12 games. Want Potter to be able to assess some of the new players without putting the current team good standing at risk

Blue Valkyrie · Feb 2, 2021

giveusfalmerplease said:
well i predicted on another thread we will be effectively safe with 5 games to go and i stick with that. expecting 8 points from the next 5 games to put us on 29, needing a max another 9 points from the last 12 games. Want Potter to be able to assess some of the new players without putting the current team good standing at risk

I agree. We beat Leeds at the Amex and become mathematically safe with that result.

:albion2:

Harry Wilson's tackle · Feb 2, 2021

If we don't qualify for the Europa league I will rip up my season ticket and start watching Faversham Town, so help me I will.

In answer to the OP's question, It's a m....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKDi6ym3Ny0

Perkino · Feb 2, 2021

In order for Sheffield United or West Brom to reach 35 points they would need form similar to a top 10 side for the remainder of the season. Fulham would need to better their current form to that of Wolves. None of those seem likely and I think a lower total of 32 is probably going to be enough

Uh_huh_him · Feb 3, 2021

Perkino said:
In order for Sheffield United or West Brom to reach 35 points they would need form similar to a top 10 side for the remainder of the season. Fulham would need to better their current form to that of Wolves. None of those seem likely and I think a lower total of 32 is probably going to be enough

Fulham have shown good form and results recently. I can see them getting a better pts tally in the second half of the season.
Newcastle seem abject every time I've seen them. Their pts total and likely ppg should be factored into any discussion about final pts total, as they are likely to be the target for the other 3.

In the run in, it is more likely to be the target that defines the final pts tally.
Any team in 18th place with a sniff of staying up will be likely to boost their ppg considerably.

blue-shifted · Feb 3, 2021

Perkino said:
In order for Sheffield United or West Brom to reach 35 points they would need form similar to a top 10 side for the remainder of the season. Fulham would need to better their current form to that of Wolves. None of those seem likely and I think a lower total of 32 is probably going to be enough

A Fulham going from 0.7 ppg to about 1.2ppg, plus us performing worse than Burnley and Newcastle is the only thing that can send us down.

Not worth worrying about West Brom and Sheff U any more. Though I think the Baggies are finishing bottom. They both have way too much to make up

FatSuperman · Feb 3, 2021

Uh_huh_him said:
Every season there's a debate about how many points will be needed to stay up, with posters quoting increasingly low numbers.

36 is the average over the past 23 seasons and 37 would have been good enough on 16 occasions.
The lowest ever is 34.

The results over the last 8 games, for the teams finishing 17th/18th, almways seem to buck the trend of the previous 30.

Just did a little lookback on previous seasons for the same week (no, I didn't bother aligning where some teams played one or two fewer games). Here is how the bottom three shaped up in each year, after about 22 games;

10/11 - 20, 21, 21
11/12 - 15, 18, 18
12/13 - 14, 16, 19
13/14 - 18, 18, 18
14/15 - 17, 19, 19
15/16 - 12, 18, 21
16/17 - 15, 16, 16
17/18 - 16, 16, 20
18/19 - 11, 14, 18
19/20 - 14, 20, 21
20/21 - 11, 12, 14

So at this point in the season, this year is pretty much the lowest totals for a decade. And in case anyone was wondering, the season when Derby got their record points haul, looked like this;

07/08 - 7, 15, 20

Edit:
Average PPG for the bottom three in each of those seasons. Yes, I know this is irrelevant as only one of them needs to overtake us. Just showing general info

10/11 - 0.93
11/12 - 0.77
12/13 - 0.74
13/14 - 0.81
14/15 - 0.83
15/16 - 0.77
16/17 - 0.71
17/18 - 0.78
18/19 - 0.65
19/20 - 0.83
20/21 - 0.56

WilburySeagull · Feb 3, 2021

jackanada said:
There's always the end of season factor where a team still desperately fighting comes up against those with nothing left to play for, or cup and European games to rest for, and the of odd top player who coasts a little those last few games because they have an eye on upcoming internationals.
Enough of those combine and suddenly someone's got 9 unexpected points and of no one has a late season tailspin to replace them that's when you can get caught out

If you can back this with stats thats fine but without that I am left thinking its a bit of a myth that pundits like to suggest but not in fact true.

jackanada · Feb 3, 2021

WilburySeagull said:
If you can back this with stats thats fine but without that I am left thinking its a bit of a myth that pundits like to suggest but not in fact true.

Well here's one analysis that suggests very strongly that nothing to play for teams so indeed have a performance drop.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/20...teams-perform-worse-at-the-end-of-the-season/

The other conjectures I'll look for.

Kalimantan Gull · Feb 3, 2021

Uh_huh_him said:
Every season there's a debate about how many points will be needed to stay up, with posters quoting increasingly low numbers.

36 is the average over the past 23 seasons and 37 would have been good enough on 16 occasions.
The lowest ever is 34.

The results over the last 8 games, for the teams finishing 17th/18th, almways seem to buck the trend of the previous 30.

Interesting how its declined, as 34 points with a GD better than - 25 (equal to our worst Premier league GD, out of interest) would have been enough each of the three seasons we've been in the prem.

zefarelly · Feb 3, 2021

41 points min. It's the law.

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