Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,089
Another good performance and a comfortable home win for the Albion.
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[Albion] 2.29 - 0.51
- Thread starter Moshe Gariani
- Start date
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
People who know stats - is xG believed to be predictive of future performance? Is it a stat that will track to actual results over time? How many games will it take to settle down?
Dorset Seagull
Once Dolphin, Now Seagull
I think its generally accepted that it is predictive but we should have expected a levelling by now.
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,089
- Thread starter
- #4
It matches the end of season table quite well.
But If you have an exceptional goal scorer (Soton, Leicester) you will continue to do better than “expected”.
If your whole identity is “nice football, create chances, but lack a clinical cutting edge” you will continue to do worse than expected.
I predict we’ll finish about 16th in real life and about 8th in the XG table.
A month old but probably not any less weird now...
This table over the 20 worst sides in the top 5 leagues contain 19 teams with negative xG and one team (..) with positive xG. Usually its a stat that represents the number of gained points in a good way meaning it should be "predictive" in some sense. xG is a reasonably new way of measuring things but I doubt that any relegated team in the history of PL had a positive xG.