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How many people in the UK have had covid to date?



Yoda

English & European
They reckon the first wave was under recorded by anywhere between 20 to 50 times the figures actually being recorded.

If that were the case, you can add anything between at least 2.5m & 6.5m to the current figure. Then add a further 10%-20% for asymptomatic that may never have been tested.

So a minimum of 6 million to a maximum of 11.5 million. Anywhere between 10 to 20 per cent of the population have been infected at some point.
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,575
Sittingbourne, Kent
It’s not an approach, it’s a naturally occurring and welcome side effect of our immune systems in a pandemic and one that needs to be taken into consideration.

But mention herd immunity in public and you just get accused of being Dr Mengele.

But it IS being suggested as an approach. This was Dominic Cummings “approach” way back in February, and is clearly the approach of Ferguson now, he though unlike Cummings, as do the government, have the advantage of the vaccine being rolled out. So this time around the devastation won’t be so great and clearly by some like yourself and Marty McFly, seems to be palatable.
 


RossyG

Well-known member
Dec 20, 2014
2,630
Herd Immunity is a natural side effect of catching Covid. No one wants to see people catch it, but people already have by the million and are now immune (certainly for the time being). This needs to be studied. For one thing, it might slightly skew the figures for the vaccine’s efficacy.

Studying this doesn’t mean that people think granny is expendable.
 


Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Is Ferguson trusted again now? I thought he was shunned after his prediction of 250,000 deaths if no serious action was taken.
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patreon
Jul 16, 2003
57,846
hassocks
But it IS being suggested as an approach. This was Dominic Cummings “approach” way back in February, and is clearly the approach of Ferguson now, he though unlike Cummings, as do the government, have the advantage of the vaccine being rolled out. So this time around the devastation won’t be so great and clearly by some like yourself and Marty McFly, seems to be palatable.

Patrick Vallance was one of the voices for herd immunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-defends-uk-measures-criticism-herd-immunity
 




e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,267
Worthing
Is Ferguson trusted again now? I thought he was shunned after his prediction of 250,000 deaths if no serious action was taken.

Bearing in mind we are unto 80,000 with action being taken I am not sure he should be so readily dismissed.
 




Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
You realise we're at 80k with action? We would of easily hit 250k without any action. Govt should of listened to him much sooner.

That was my point, sorry.

I’ve seen the same people who mocked his prediction now agreeing with him on this.
 




darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,575
Sittingbourne, Kent
Herd Immunity is a natural side effect of catching Covid. No one wants to see people catch it, but people already have by the million and are now immune (certainly for the time being). This needs to be studied. For one thing, it might slightly skew the figures for the vaccine’s efficacy.

Studying this doesn’t mean that people think granny is expendable.

You clearly don't go on Facebook, Twitter or even on here until very recently, where many are and were advocating exactly this policy, with the caveat that grannie can shield (be locked away and forgotten).
 










CHAPPERS

DISCO SPENG
Jul 5, 2003
44,757






Marty___Mcfly

I see your wicked plan - I’m a junglist.
Sep 14, 2011
2,251
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/929ef3cd-8611-49b2-9f23-918dc3470166 PHE study finds that immunity gained from having had Covid appears similar to that gained from vaccines.

Again I am not suggesting it is good that so many people have had it. These findings do however suggest that a decent chunk of the population have decent immunity, which in conjunction with vaccines may be part of slowing the spread.
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,575
Sittingbourne, Kent
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/929ef3cd-8611-49b2-9f23-918dc3470166 PHE study finds that immunity gained from having had Covid appears similar to that gained from vaccines.

Again I am not suggesting it is good that so many people have had it. These findings do however suggest that a decent chunk of the population have decent immunity, which in conjunction with vaccines may be part of slowing the spread.

That’s a far more considered response - and hopefully yes things are SLOWLY moving in the right direction.

The infection figures are beginning to drop in the majority of areas and should be heading in the right direction, just in time to send kids back to school... :)
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
Good piece in Science Mag today which use the Brazilian city of Manaus (where c70% of people are thought to have had it) as an illustration of how utterly catastrophic herd immunity by infection is, and can't be used as a strategy:

What the findings of Buss et al. definitively show is that pursuing herd immunity through naturally acquired infection is not a strategy that can be considered. Achieving herd immunity through infection will be very costly in terms of mortality and morbidity, with little guarantee of success. Although the duration and effectiveness of immunity in reducing transmission with vaccination is unclear, experience across several infectious diseases suggests that immunity can be boosted safely through vaccination, if required.

Even a mitigation strategy whereby the virus is allowed to spread through the population with the objective of keeping admissions just below health care capacity, as is done for influenza virus, is clearly mis- guided for SARS-CoV-2. Like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, this virus is optimally addressed with an aggressive suppression strategy. Governments need to focus on more precise NPIs, robust test/trace/isolate systems, bor- der control measures, mass testing, better treatments, and development and delivery of vaccines (15). This is the most sustainable path for countries out of this pandemic.​

Source >>> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6526/230.full.pdf

And, despite Manaus having such high levels of prior infection from their first wave in early 2020, their health system is currently under catastrophic collapse as the current wave rips though >>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/brazil-manaus-amazonas-covid-coronavirus
 



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