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[Albion] We hold a lead for 19 minutes on average



Shooting Star

Well-known member
Apr 29, 2011
2,794
Suffolk
Though it wasn’t 3 points yesterday, it was wonderful to come away from a game feeling something close to euphoria. It got me thinking that throughout games I’ve felt that often this season, but by the final whistle it’s usually been deflation. Usually this is because we’ve lost points from an advantageous position. I conducted a quick bit of research to see how long we usually hold to leads.

From my very unscientific study, seven times we’ve held the lead this season and been pegged back. Only once (against Villa) did we come away from the game with three points. Of these seven games we held the lead for:

Man United (2 minutes)
West Brom (43 minutes)
Villa (35 minutes, from Welbeck’s goal to the equaliser)
Southampton (19 minutes)
West Ham (16 minutes and 12 minutes)
Wolves (6 minutes)

On average that’s 19 minutes we’ve held the lead for in these games. From the six we lost points in from that position, we could have had 12 more points from these games if we’d maintained the lead.

I then added in games where we’d lost points from an advantageous position (e.g had gained an equaliser but then went on to lose). If you take these positions into account as well as those above (aside from Villa), we held advantageous positions for an average of 13 minutes before conceding.

Like I said, this wasn’t very scientific and I did this straight before bed, so please forgive me. I imagine there’s a stats website out there that would have already done this work for me.

As we all know, Newcastle was the only game where we maintained a lead from start to finish this season. I think the above is the reason for my unease about how and when we’re going to start winning games. I don’t think scoring is the answer - we can score goals as last night showed. However, we look so uncomfortable when we take the lead in games and as the above shows, we tend to swiftly concede. I think I’d feel better if we were holding a lead until injury time and then conceding, because it would feel like a little bit of luck may see us grind out three points. A win feels very distant and that killer instinct to see off a game is currently absent. This was highlighted to me last night when, with 20 seconds left on the clock, we let a goal kick go straight to Traore, who crossed to an unmarked striker in the box who absolutely should have scored. That would have been a car crash of a goal to concede.

Beating Newport in the FA Cup seems vital to me, only to instil a winning mentality back into the club.
 


Algernon

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2012
2,931
Newmarket.
If we can take the lead from the 72nd minute onward then we should be alright.
Taking into consideration time added on perhaps the 77th just to be sure.
 




Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
There is definitely some psychological ghost when the team takes the lead, especially at home. Once its 0-0 everything is looking fine, Brighton often being the better team, but when 1-0 up the defense line sinks lower and lower and the midfielders/strikers start to covering spaces instead of trying to intercept. Obviously this is not instructions from the sideline and not instructions from the leaders on the pitch either, its some kind of PTSD coming into play and unfortunately the only solution to it is probably to win a game at home... which is very difficult when you are afraid of losing. Its a bad circle, need some luck to get out of it because at this point there are no words or instructions that will sort it out. Hopefully second half yesterday has a positive, subconcious effect.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
5,372
Wiltshire
There is definitely some psychological ghost when the team takes the lead, especially at home. Once its 0-0 everything is looking fine, Brighton often being the better team, but when 1-0 up the defense line sinks lower and lower and the midfielders/strikers start to covering spaces instead of trying to intercept. Obviously this is not instructions from the sideline and not instructions from the leaders on the pitch either, its some kind of PTSD coming into play and unfortunately the only solution to it is probably to win a game at home... which is very difficult when you are afraid of losing. Its a bad circle, need some luck to get out of it because at this point there are no words or instructions that will sort it out. Hopefully second half yesterday has a positive, subconcious effect.
Exactly this IMO. The euphoria of scoring replaced by the fear of defending the lead...in only 10 seconds. It didn't happen when we went from 1-3 to 2-3 , because we were still chasing - Potter needs to use that example as positive motivation.
 




tigertim68

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2012
2,306
Though it wasn’t 3 points yesterday, it was wonderful to come away from a game feeling something close to euphoria. It got me thinking that throughout games I’ve felt that often this season, but by the final whistle it’s usually been deflation. Usually this is because we’ve lost points from an advantageous position. I conducted a quick bit of research to see how long we usually hold to leads.

From my very unscientific study, seven times we’ve held the lead this season and been pegged back. Only once (against Villa) did we come away from the game with three points. Of these seven games we held the lead for:

Man United (2 minutes)
West Brom (43 minutes)
Villa (35 minutes, from Welbeck’s goal to the equaliser)
Southampton (19 minutes)
West Ham (16 minutes and 12 minutes)
Wolves (6 minutes)

On average that’s 19 minutes we’ve held the lead for in these games. From the six we lost points in from that position, we could have had 12 more points from these games if we’d maintained the lead.

I then added in games where we’d lost points from an advantageous position (e.g had gained an equaliser but then went on to lose). If you take these positions into account as well as those above (aside from Villa), we held advantageous positions for an average of 13 minutes before conceding.

Like I said, this wasn’t very scientific and I did this straight before bed, so please forgive me. I imagine there’s a stats website out there that would have already done this work for me.

As we all know, Newcastle was the only game where we maintained a lead from start to finish this season. I think the above is the reason for my unease about how and when we’re going to start winning games. I don’t think scoring is the answer - we can score goals as last night showed. However, we look so uncomfortable when we take the lead in games and as the above shows, we tend to swiftly concede. I think I’d feel better if we were holding a lead until injury time and then conceding, because it would feel like a little bit of luck may see us grind out three points. A win feels very distant and that killer instinct to see off a game is currently absent. This was highlighted to me last night when, with 20 seconds left on the clock, we let a goal kick go straight to Traore, who crossed to an unmarked striker in the box who absolutely should have scored. That would have been a car crash of a goal to concede.

Beating Newport in the FA Cup seems vital to me, only to instil a winning mentality back into the club.


Simple really , we don’t know how to defend anymore, our defence is awful
 


vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
Agree and good OP. It’s definitely a problem, surely it’s been noted by the coaching staff and hopefully we can resolve this psychological issue.
 


Shooting Star

Well-known member
Apr 29, 2011
2,794
Suffolk
Exactly this IMO. The euphoria of scoring replaced by the fear of defending the lead...in only 10 seconds. It didn't happen when we went from 1-3 to 2-3 , because we were still chasing - Potter needs to use that example as positive motivation.

Indeed. And the one time this season where we've taken a two goal lead, against Newcastle, we went on to win. It seems like Albion either need to figure out how to hit a second quickly, or steady themselves after going one up so they don't concede soon after.
 




Saladpack Seagull

Just Shut Up and Paddle
Though it wasn’t 3 points yesterday, it was wonderful to come away from a game feeling something close to euphoria. It got me thinking that throughout games I’ve felt that often this season, but by the final whistle it’s usually been deflation. Usually this is because we’ve lost points from an advantageous position. I conducted a quick bit of research to see how long we usually hold to leads.

From my very unscientific study, seven times we’ve held the lead this season and been pegged back. Only once (against Villa) did we come away from the game with three points. Of these seven games we held the lead for:

Man United (2 minutes)
West Brom (43 minutes)
Villa (35 minutes, from Welbeck’s goal to the equaliser)
Southampton (19 minutes)
West Ham (16 minutes and 12 minutes)
Wolves (6 minutes)

On average that’s 19 minutes we’ve held the lead for in these games. From the six we lost points in from that position, we could have had 12 more points from these games if we’d maintained the lead.

I then added in games where we’d lost points from an advantageous position (e.g had gained an equaliser but then went on to lose). If you take these positions into account as well as those above (aside from Villa), we held advantageous positions for an average of 13 minutes before conceding.

Like I said, this wasn’t very scientific and I did this straight before bed, so please forgive me. I imagine there’s a stats website out there that would have already done this work for me.

As we all know, Newcastle was the only game where we maintained a lead from start to finish this season. I think the above is the reason for my unease about how and when we’re going to start winning games. I don’t think scoring is the answer - we can score goals as last night showed. However, we look so uncomfortable when we take the lead in games and as the above shows, we tend to swiftly concede. I think I’d feel better if we were holding a lead until injury time and then conceding, because it would feel like a little bit of luck may see us grind out three points. A win feels very distant and that killer instinct to see off a game is currently absent. This was highlighted to me last night when, with 20 seconds left on the clock, we let a goal kick go straight to Traore, who crossed to an unmarked striker in the box who absolutely should have scored. That would have been a car crash of a goal to concede.

Beating Newport in the FA Cup seems vital to me, only to instil a winning mentality back into the club.

Beating Newport in the FA Cup will be easier said than done. Don't let Albion take your dog for a walk - they can't hold a lead!
 


Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
12,898
Central Borneo / the Lizard
I'd also like to see our possession starts queen 1 goal up, imagine it's not pretty reading.

As for why, I think it's the wing backs that retreat and we go narrower into a back 5. This allows their full backs to get forward and we're then looking for the forward players to close down these wide men, they do it badly and crosses get slung in with ease. At the same time we lose our outlets.

Frustrating. Like most I enjoy watching us play, but I feel like I enjoy watching us when we're level out a goal down, but not at all when we're a goal up. Shouldn't be that way.
 


Shooting Star

Well-known member
Apr 29, 2011
2,794
Suffolk
Interesting. Although I would add in the time we were ahead in the Newcastle and after the winner against villa. We lead for pretty much the whole Newcastle game.

Yeah, I probably should have put in the Villa data after the second, though I think the avg only increases by a few of minutes with that lead accounted for. As the Newcastle game was a complete outlier, I thought it probably would have skewed the results misleadingly.
 




May 5, 2020
1,525
Sussex
Could it be a symptom of the crowd not being there?
The players are used to having the buzz of the crowd when the goal goes in.
Usually there would be a huge roar,then some singing then a real positive energy from the crowd urging the team on to get another whenever we are in possession.
The crowd noise would also put the away team on the back foot a bit more.
It must be strange at home when we score and it goes a bit quiet.
 




Shooting Star

Well-known member
Apr 29, 2011
2,794
Suffolk
Make that 17 minutes on average (I’ll count this cup game only because Potter played pretty much a full-strength XI, except for Steele).
 










Eeyore

Lord Donkey of Queen's Park
NSC Patreon
Apr 5, 2014
23,377
If we can take the lead from the 72nd minute onward then we should be alright.
Taking into consideration time added on perhaps the 77th just to be sure.

Just tried that one....
 


Jul 7, 2003
8,571
one lousy round.png
 



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