[Brighton] Mythical points total. How may do we need in reality?

R

redoubtable seagull

Well-known member

Oct 27, 2004

2,540

• Dec 30, 2020

• #1

Villa stayed up last season with 35 points.
37 points have been enough to finish 17th in 17 of the last 24 seasons.
36 points have been enough in 11 of the last 24 seasons.

We have 13 points from 16 games. Can we get between 22 and 25 points in our remaining 22 fixtures?

On reflection that seems doable but would require us to win 6 or so games plus a handful of draws.

What do the sages of NSC think?

 

BNthree

Plastic JCL

Sep 14, 2016

10,966

WeHo

• Dec 30, 2020

• #2

Complete guess but reckon 37/38 would be enough this season.

 

B

blockhseagull

Well-known member

Jan 30, 2006

7,349

Southampton

• Dec 30, 2020

• #3

34 is the magic number this year

 

WATFORD zero

Well-known member

NSC Patron

Jul 10, 2003

25,943

• Dec 30, 2020

• #4

Apparently these are the stats for the Premier League. Points/Relegation/Staying up

40 99% 1%
39 98% 2%
38 94% 6%
37 85% 15%
36 69% 31%
35 49% 51%
34 18% 72%
33 13% 87%
32 5% 95%
31 1% 99%

 

B

blue-shifted

Banned

Feb 20, 2004

7,645

a galaxy far far away

• Dec 30, 2020

• #5

We've played enough games that we can extrapolate the points total required with a decent degree of accuracy, (though the clubs involved might not be the same)

Fulham are on 0.73 ppg and we're on 0.81ppg

This would translate into the 18th place team having (rounding up) 28 points.............. Meaning a historic low of 29 is currently on course to do it.

Experience suggests, managers will be sacked and players bought etc, so lets (rather unscientifically) add another win onto that.

32 points will get us safe (blue-shifted says with authority and self belief)

This means we need 19 points from our remaining 22 games.

P22 W4 D7 L11 will do it

It won't be a comfortable ride mind

 

N

NooBHA

Well-known member

Jan 13, 2015

8,586

• Dec 30, 2020

• #6

blockhseagull said:

34 is the magic number this year

Click to expand...

I think a team could stay up this year with as little as 32 points.