Over 50,000 positive tests today.

TomandJerry · Dec 29, 2020

"The UK has recorded 53,135 new daily infections, health data showed on Tuesday, as well as 414 deaths.

The daily increase in infections is a new record, and significantly higher than Monday’s 41,385 new new lab-confirmed cases, the previous record since the start of the pandemic and the first day new daily cases rose above 40,000.

2,322 new patients were admitted to hospital in the past 24 hours."

Simply unsustainable numbers.

What will give first...

The NHS or a nation wide tier 5 lockdown?

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

vegster · Dec 29, 2020

It is really concerning, even for the vagaries of testing earlier in the year compared to today, these figures are truly awful, we are on a par or advanced per capita as the Yanks now. The HUGE problem is that the small percentage of those requiring hospitalisation goes up as the overall figure goes up. The hospitals will be swamped within a few days, tier 5 here we come.

dazzer6666 · Dec 29, 2020

vegster said:
It is really concerning, even for the vagaries of testing earlier in the year compared to today, these figures are truly awful, we are on a par or advanced per capita as the Yanks now. The HUGE problem is that the small percentage of those requiring hospitalisation goes up as the overall figure goes up. The hospitals will be swamped within a few days, tier 5 here we come.

What can we do in T4 that we wouldn’t be able to do in T5 ? Apart from fully shutting the schools, we’re pretty close to lockdown anyway........

Think we’ll get another couple of weeks of increasing numbers after the Christmas free-for-all that a lot of people seem to have insisted upon having before the long, slow tick downwards starts, coinciding with the vaccinations starting to have an impact.

vegster · Dec 29, 2020

dazzer6666 said:
What can we do in T4 that we wouldn’t be able to do in T5 ? Apart from fully shutting the schools, we’re pretty close to lockdown anyway........

Think we’ll get another couple of weeks of increasing numbers after the Christmas free-for-all that a lot of people seem to have insisted upon having before the long, slow tick downwards starts, coinciding with the vaccinations starting to have an impact.

I think that we are taking things far too lightly, went for a walk on Sunday along Worthing prom and it was rammed with walkers, mostly in groups, people cycling and skateboarding and weaving through the crowds... We have a low number of cases here but I really don't expect that to last, I fear we need to go to the Spanish/Italian level of lockdown whereby we actually just go to buy food once a week and stay in other than that. Who knows ? In February one of our regular posters said that Flu's were not that contagious and we should man up and not worry.

dazzer6666 · Dec 29, 2020

vegster said:
I think that we are taking things far too lightly, went for a walk on Sunday along Worthing prom and it was rammed with walkers, mostly in groups, people cycling and skateboarding and weaving through the crowds... We have a low number of cases here but I really don't expect that to last, I fear we need to go to the Spanish/Italian level of lockdown whereby we actually just go to buy food once a week and stay in other than that. Who knows ? In February one of our regular posters said that Flu's were not that contagious and we should man up and not worry.

Agree, but can’t see it happening - we don’t have the manpower to police it and there would be almost instant social unrest (probably making things worse).

I’ve seen a few things on various facebook groups today with people descending into arguments about what travelling you’re allowed to do. Apparently to ‘anywhere in Tier 4 is OK’ because that’s ‘local’. Several local beauty spots being posted as suggestions for places to go for your ‘exercise’.......but ‘get there early because it’s really busy’. I despair.

Beach Hut · Dec 29, 2020

At least we haven't mis-calculated our death toll like Russia has by two thirds no less

vegster · Dec 29, 2020

dazzer6666 said:
Agree, but can’t see it happening - we don’t have the manpower to police it and there would be almost instant social unrest (probably making things worse).

I’ve seen a few things on various facebook groups today with people descending into arguments about what travelling you’re allowed to do. Apparently to ‘anywhere in Tier 4 is OK’ because that’s ‘local’. Several local beauty spots being posted as suggestions for places to go for your ‘exercise’.......but ‘get there early because it’s really busy’. I despair.

I concur, we are killing ourselves.

Weststander · Dec 29, 2020

Looking at the latest numbers of weekly tests and the positive cases %age (EU data):

UK 2,600,000 7.3%
Germany 1,600,000 11%
France 2,000,000 4.7%
Italy 1,100,000 9.6%
Spain 940,000 6.3%
Netherlands 570,000 13.3%
Belgium 270,000 6.5%

In March to May, we were only testing 80,000 to 500,000 a week.

Inherently the number of new cases declared are going to be vast, when testing 2.6m a week.

They key data is simply hospital beds occupied and deaths. Not looking good at all, with a further upsurge later to come after the Xmas Day relaxation of rules and mass ignoring of the current laws. We know plenty of people who’ve done as they pleased, including families not quarantining after overseas travel.

Solid at the back · Dec 29, 2020

Government really dithering, still planning on sending schools back next week.

Kinky Gerbil · Dec 29, 2020

vegster said:
I think that we are taking things far too lightly, went for a walk on Sunday along Worthing prom and it was rammed with walkers, mostly in groups, people cycling and skateboarding and weaving through the crowds... We have a low number of cases here but I really don't expect that to last, I fear we need to go to the Spanish/Italian level of lockdown whereby we actually just go to buy food once a week and stay in other than that. Who knows ? In February one of our regular posters said that Flu's were not that contagious and we should man up and not worry.

How many health issues if you stop all exercise?

vegster · Dec 29, 2020

Kinky Gerbils said:
How many health issues if you stop all exercise?

Do you die if you don't exercise outside for a month ?

Kinky Gerbil · Dec 29, 2020

vegster said:
Do you die if you don't exercise outside for a month ?

How about the mental well being of those stuck in a flat or house without a garden?

Some of those with kids?

People with dogs?

It’s a ridiculous idea to stop people leaving the house for exercise

atomised · Dec 30, 2020

vegster said:
I think that we are taking things far too lightly, went for a walk on Sunday along Worthing prom and it was rammed with walkers, mostly in groups, people cycling and skateboarding and weaving through the crowds... We have a low number of cases here but I really don't expect that to last, I fear we need to go to the Spanish/Italian level of lockdown whereby we actually just go to buy food once a week and stay in other than that. Who knows ? In February one of our regular posters said that Flu's were not that contagious and we should man up and not worry.

Not sure on the low number of cases bit. Pretty sure Worthing was in the top 10 increases wise in a recent table I saw as we're adur and Lewes.

darkwolf666 · Dec 30, 2020

Kinky Gerbils said:
How about the mental well being of those stuck in a flat or house without a garden?

Some of those with kids?

People with dogs?

It’s a ridiculous idea to stop people leaving the house for exercise

Even during the first lockdown you were allowed to go outside for one hours exercise (not sure how it was monitored), however that didn’t legislate for driving for an hour to meet a group of friends to walk the dogs!

The government are once again dithering and running away from making decisions, especially ones that will make it look like they have made a U-turn (schools).

At the end of this shit show the analysis will undoubtedly show we made ALL the important decisions too late...

dazzer6666 · Dec 30, 2020

darkwolf666 said:
Even during the first lockdown you were allowed to go outside for one hours exercise (not sure how it was monitored), however that didn’t legislate for driving for an hour to meet a group of friends to walk the dogs!

The government are once again dithering and running away from making decisions, especially ones that will make it look like they have made a U-turn (schools).

At the end of this shit show the analysis will undoubtedly show we made ALL the important decisions too late...

It was never restricted to an hour......there a couple of throwaway comments from MPs but no time limit was in the official guidance/rules.

In some countries they have put distance limits in place during lockdown - ie I believe in Switzerland and France at one point you had to stay within 1km of your house and carry address verification with you when out. Something like this should be done perhaps.........people are taking the piss with the current ‘limited travel to exercise’ guidance and using it to visit beauty spots, resulting in overcrowding and making distancing more difficult.

Bakero · Dec 30, 2020

vegster said:
I think that we are taking things far too lightly, went for a walk on Sunday along Worthing prom and it was rammed with walkers, mostly in groups, people cycling and skateboarding and weaving through the crowds...

Many in masks?

darkwolf666 · Dec 30, 2020

dazzer6666 said:
It was never restricted to an hour......there a couple of throwaway comments from MPs but no time limit was in the official guidance/rules.

In some countries they have put distance limits in place during lockdown - ie I believe in Switzerland and France at one point you had to stay within 1km of your house and carry address verification with you when out. Something like this should be done perhaps.........people are taking the piss with the current ‘limited travel to exercise’ guidance and using it to visit beauty spots, resulting in overcrowding and making distancing more difficult.

No, the one hour was never legislation, but that was what was mentuoned by the likes of Gove as people were taking the piss, as usual!

Not quite sure why we are discussing semantics here, as clearly we are on the same side!

crodonilson · Dec 30, 2020

Another 50,000 cases today and nearly 1,000 deaths. Which makes today's new tiers announcements even more pathetic, don't go anywhere near far enough. What we needed was a tier 5 and the whole country into that tier indefinitely.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Dec 30, 2020

Solid at the back said:
Government really dithering, still planning on sending schools back next week.

As far as I am aware I am expected to do contact teaching at a major university in London in January. I told my HoD I wouldn't do it 'unless safe', after having encountered staff without masks and having a student wearing no mask barge past me on a staircase when I last came in, in early December. My HoD's response was 'well that differs from my experience' as if I just encountered an unlucky day, or was 'mistaken'. Pathetic passive-agressive bollocks.

Sadly a HoD of a university department these days isn't an independent minded academic, but someone with lots of energy who does the bidding of the adminstrators (a mix of 'senior' academics and highly paid people with a business background). If the government is saying 'keep the students at uni' then that's what these people will do. They can't make me or anyone else come in to teach but they can tell me that 'it is expected that you will come in and teach with adequate provision made to ensure social distancing'. I have to get a train up from Faversham and a tube from the mainline station to my places of work (I have two). And when I arrive I find people dicking about like it's just another day. And I'm made to feel I'm letting the side down if I say 'once bitten, twice shy'?

The irony is 90% of teaching is being done online and the small amounts of token contact teaching is being done just so we can say that students had a 'different' and 'less than ideal' experience this year, but you were all on campus so, no, you can't have your money back. I think the argument for keeping actual schools open is different (partly babysitting so the parents can go to work, and partly to mitigate against poorer neglected children doing no work if kept at home; societal issues, actually and not essential for education if online teaching could be set up properly, and there is no reason why it cannot).

But all in all, it is the dithering, plan changing ****aboutery, that is the real problem. A new plan every few weeks. People can't just drop their job if kids are suddenly sent home from school

Be careful out there people, and if you are working in education don't be bullied or blackmailed into putting yourself or elderly family members at risk; I gather there is a call to put teachers at the front of the vaccine queue - that seems a smart move if correct.

dazzer6666 · Dec 30, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
As far as I am aware I am expected to do contact teaching at a major university in London in January. I told my HoD I wouldn't do it 'unless safe', after having encountered staff without masks and having a student wearing no mask barge past me on a staircase when I last came in, in early December. My HoD's response was 'well that differs from my experience' as if I just encountered an unlucky day, or was 'mistaken'. Pathetic passive-agressive bollocks.

Sadly a HoD of a university department these days isn't an independent minded academic, but someone with lots of energy who does the bidding of the adminstrators (a mix of 'senior' academics and highly paid people with a business background). If the government is saying 'keep the students at uni' then that's what these people will do. They can't make me or anyone else come in to teach but they can tell me that 'it is expected that you will come in and teach with adequate provision made to ensure social distancing'. I have to get a train up from Faversham and a tube from the mainline station to my places of work (I have two). And when I arrive I find people dicking about like it's just another day. And I'm made to feel I'm letting the side down if I say 'once bitten, twice shy'?

The irony is 90% of teaching is being done online and the small amounts of token contact teaching is being done just so we can say that students had a 'different' and 'less than ideal' experience this year, but you were all on campus so, no, you can't have your money back. I think the argument for keeping actual schools open is different (partly babysitting so the parents can go to work, and partly to mitigate against poorer neglected children doing no work if kept at home; societal issues, actually and not essential for education if online teaching could be set up properly, and there is no reason why it cannot).

But all in all, it is the dithering, plan changing ****aboutery, that is the real problem. A new plan every few weeks. People can't just drop their job if kids are suddenly sent home from school

Be careful out there people, and if you are working in education don't be bullied or blackmailed into putting yourself or elderly family members at risk; I gather there is a call to put teachers at the front of the vaccine queue - that seems a smart move if correct.

What a shitshow. If educational establishments are being kept open, teachers in them need to be with, or immediately after the highly vulnerable and front-line key workers for vaccination - particularly with the new variant being seemingly spread much more easily by kids.

Blindingly obvious, you’d think.

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